Trick or Treat With The Grizzlies
Trick or treat and happy Halloween! To celebrate we’re going to look at some numbers we have for the Grizzlies and decide if it’s a trick or a treat. Anything that doesn’t seem sustainable is a trick. Anything that does is a nice treat we can enjoy for the rest of the season.
Elite Defense
Entering the season there was evidence the Grizzlies could Grit n’ Grind again. Through the small sample size of six games this is proving true. As of this writing Memphis is 4th in defensive rating. There seems to be real indicators that a top 10 defense is sustainable throughout the season.
Memphis is currently tied for first in steals per game, and also rank in the top ten in opponent points off turnovers, opponent second chance points, and opponent points in the paint. Furthermore, the team ranked 11th in Total Points Saved/240 Minutes (per game) through the first five games of the season.
The defensive performance is anchored by the Grizzlies’ three most reliable players through the start of the season. Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and Garrett Temple are all making a large impact according to our data. Gasol is pacing the entire league in D-PIPM as of this writing, with Temple coming in a tidy 15th. As for Conley, he is pacing the entire league in DPOE as of this writing.
These high marks are even with opponents draining open threes against Memphis. Memphis is suffering the 5th highest open opponent 3P% in the league, despite allowing the 11th fewest such attempts. Memphis isn’t conceding many open threes, but when it happens opponents are converting at a disproportional rate. Once this stabilizes the Grizzlies’ defense could be even stingier.
Trick or Treat Elite Defense Verdict: Treat
Conley/Gasol/Temple – Upper Tier Trio
Speaking of Conley, Gasol, and Temple, this trio is +54 in 123 minutes played, which ranks 17th out of all three man combinations. They’re getting it done on the offensive end as well as defensively.
Memphis currently ranks 3rd in the league in free throw rate at 32.9%. Team free throw rate is a data point that stabilizes after only five games. The Grizzlies 3rd place rank comes after completing six games, and is due in large part to the core triad. Conley, Gasol, and Temple are combining for a FT/FGA rate of 34.8%.
Gasol and Temple are scorching from distance to open the season, as they are shooting 50% and 51.6%, respectively. Each number figures to come back to earth, but Conley’s present 3P% of 28.2% figures to bounce up.
Gasol needs to be taken seriously as a stretch five. We’ve learned it takes 750 three point attempts for a player’s three point percentage to stabilize. Dating back to the beginning of the 2016-17 season, Gasol has shot 36.8% from three on his last 612 attempts. That mark is, unsurprisingly, midway between his ’16-’17 mark of 38.8%, and ’17-’18 mark of 34.1%.
According to our grading database, in 2016-17 Gasol graded out as an A perimeter shooter among bigs that played at least 1,500 minutes, and graded out as a B in 2017-18 as a perimeter shooter among bigs that played at least 1,500 minutes.
This trio’s elite defense plus solid three point shooting and frequent trips to the line should keep them as one of the best three man units throughout the season.
Trick or Treat Upper Tier Trio Verdict: Treat
Shelvin Mack Jockin’ on Fools
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Shelvin Mack is shooting 44.4% from deep, a Chris Paulian 50% from mid-range, and is posting an eFG% of 53.7% without hitting a single corner three this year. In seasons where Mack has played at least 50 games, this would be his best three point season by 100 percentage points.
That’s not the only career high Mack is on pace set. His FG% and true shooting% are both significantly higher than his previous career bests. And for the first time in eight years Mack’s personal net rating is a positive figure at +7.
There is valid reason to be skeptical of anything involving a small sample size, and Shelvin Mack is the latest exhibit. He has been dynamite in the backup point guard minutes to date, but this feels too unsustainable.
Trick or Treat Shelvin Mack Verdict: Trick
Omri Casspi on Some MoreyBall Shit
Omri Casspi is taking 68.2% of his field goal attempts either at the rim or behind the three-point line. This isn’t entirely new for Casspi, as his career mark is 65.2% in this area. There are multiple seasons in Casspi’s history that beat the 68.2% through his first five games.
What is so exciting is his conversion. Casspi is shooting an Anthony Davis 75% around the rim, and draining 42.9% of his threes. His 61.4 eFG% would be the best of his career, and his 61.5 TS% would be the second best mark of his career.
Don’t worry, Casspi is also sporting a ridiculous 50% free throw rate at the moment. For a team in the bottom ten of the league in three point attempts per game, and second to last in pace, Casspi is a refreshing breath of modern basketball.
He won’t continue to draw so many fouls and his three-point percentage will come back to reality (career 36.9%), but Casspi is here to play a role, and it’s a role made up of Daryl Morey’s dreams.
Trick or Treat Omri Casspi MoreyBall Verdict: Treat, but your least favorite candy
Wayne Selden’s Hyper Efficiency
Selden joins Casspi in the 75% shooting at the rim/40% shooting from three club, with marks of 75% and 43.8%, respectively. He has yet to miss a corner three.
This has lead to an eFG% of 62.1 and a TS% of 65.3. Each of those percentages would have ranked 5th in the league last year.
The best evidence to suggest Selden can remain close to this efficient is his volume. His 75% shooting at the rim and 43.8% shooting from three will move downward as the season progresses. But he should improve his shot selection and free throw rate over time.
Selden is taking only 12.1% of his shots at the rim through six games, below his career number of 21.4%. He has only played 55 games in his career however, but with how successful he has always been at the rim (64.9% career) he should be and will be encouraged to drive more.
He is sacrificing those shots at the rim for more mid-rangers, but he is drilling those too. Selden is shooting 60% from 10′-16′, and has yet to miss a single shot from 16′ out to the three-point line. Both of those numbers will come down, but if Selden trades some of those attempts to attack the basket more, the efficiency should even out.
And if he does attack more, he should see an uptick in his free throw rate. Selden’s free throw rate at the moment is 15.2%, down from his career average of 23.9%. Again, the decrease in shots at the rim make for an obvious causation here, so once he attacks more he should get to the line more.
Selden should see a decline in his field goal percentages from different areas on the floor. Getting back to his typical shot selection and free throw attempt rate should counter balance the decrease in shooting accuracy.
