Just throw out last season. Shoot it into the sun. Mike Conley played 12 total games and the Grizzlies went so tank-tastic that they played three bigs at the same time. Such circumstances ended a streak of seven consecutive playoff appearances. So, can Memphis Grit n’ Grind again?

Those playoff teams were built on strong defense and a Grit n’ Grind culture embraced by team and city. Yet entering 2018-19 the coach is different from those playoff teams. The players are different from those playoff teams. Is the era and culture gone, or can still Memphis Grit n’ Grind?

Defensive Heights

During their seven year playoff run, the Grizzlies averaged a defensive rating of 103.2, a mark that would have ranked 3rd in the NBA last season. The data is a little skewed here, as a lot of these defensive marks were achieved prior to so many teams around the league embracing Moreyball. For context, over the seven year playoff run, the Grizzlies averaged a finish of the 8th best defensive rating in the league.

But the Grizzlies also finished the 2015-16 season 20th in defensive rating, largely due to Marc Gasol missing 30 games. In that season, however, Memphis performed right on their average defensively with Gasol on the floor, posting a defensive rating of 103.3. That would have ranked 7th during the 2015-16 season.

This is functionally the second year of J.B. Bickerstaff and there has been a fair amount of roster turnover since 2016-17. The pieces are there, however, for a capable, if not better-than-most, defense. The bigger question mark than the grinding players on the floor is the chef cooking the grits, (and we all know how a town like Memphis must feel about its grits) so let’s examine what the BBall-Index data can show us headed into the 2018-19 season.

The Pieces to Work With

In all three position groups – guards, wings, bigs – Memphis has top level defensive impact. Let’s look at the defensive talent and impact the Grizzlies have to work with broken down into those three position groups, while highlighting significant contributors within each group.

[General context: Grade Among Group shows how well a player graded in 2017-18 among players at his position group that played at least 1,500 minutes]

BIGS:

Marc Gasol
Category	Grade	Grade Among Group
Perimeter Defense	C-	C
Interior Defense	A-	B
Defensive Rebounding	A	A-

 

The importance of a competent big as a team’s defensive anchor is self evident. It’s not a coincidence that the top three defenses in the NBA from last season – Utah, Boston, Philadelphia – each sported a top five vote getter for Defensive Player of the Year.

Here we have Marc Gasol grading out as an elite interior defender league wide, and still in the 66-74th percentile among big men. It is fair to wonder if at his age, will Gasol see a decline in his defensive impact?

Gasol is projected for a D-PIPM of +0.7 this season, which ranks him in the 84th percentile. Last year Gasol posted a D-PIPM of +1.0, and for context, consider that Al Horford is projected for a D-PIPM of +1.1 this season, placing him into the 90th percentile.

All in all, Gasol seems to have a floor of landing in the 84th percentile in D-PIPM this year, with a chance at pushing for the 90th percentile depending on how his natural aging process affects his play.

Further points of encouragement for 2018-19 are his perimeter defense was still serviceable last year despite his age. This should allow for some scheme versatility depending on matchups, and also indicates Memphis won’t be entirely in trouble should Gasol get switched onto a guard or wing in pinch situations.

WINGS:

Kyle Anderson
Category	Grade	Grade Among Group
Perimeter Defense	B+	A-
Defensive Rebounding	A	A

JaMychal Green
Category	Grade	Grade Among Group
Interior Defense	B	B+
Defensive Rebounding	A	A

Omri Casspi
Category	Grade	Grade Among Group
Interior Defense	B	A-
Defensive Rebounding	A-	A

Garrett Temple
Category	Grade	Grade Among Group
Perimeter Defense	B-	B-
Interior Defense	B-	B

Analytics darling Kyle Anderson proves to be a darling in the eyes of The BBall-Index as well. As you can see here, Anderson received a B+ grade as a perimeter defender last season, while posting an A- grade among all wings that accrued at last 1,500 minutes.

Anderson also finished 9th in the league last year in D-PIPM, and projects to be in the 98th percentile for 2018-19 in D-PIPM. But don’t just take our word for it. Anderson ranked 16th last year in DRPM, and finished third among small forwards. For what it’s worth, Aaron Baynes was lumped into the small forward category in the RPM data despite playing 99% of his minutes last season at center.

GUARDS:

Mike Conley 2016-17
Category	Grade	Grade Among Group
Perimeter Defense	B	C+

Shelvin Mack
Category	Grade	Grade Among Group
Perimeter Defense	B+	B+
Defensive Rebounding	B-	A-

The question here is how will aging affect Mike Conley? Two years ago Conley graded out well in perimeter defense and serviceable among his position. Last season he posted a B grade in perimeter defense and a B- grade among guards that played at least 1,500 minutes, but his 373 minutes is a tiny sample size.

Conley is projected for a -0.3 D-PIPM for 2018-19, putting him into the 44th percentile. However, in 2016-17, Conley posted a D-PIPM of -0.1, very similar to DeMarre Carroll’s 2018-19 projected D-PIPM of -0.1, which is in the 57th percentile. If Conley can play defense to his 2016-17 levels, he could grade out as a C+ perimeter defender. Considering the talent we’ve highlighted standing behind him, that C+ should be good enough.

The Mystery Box

Generally speaking rookies play poor defense, so we don’t know what to expect from Jaren Jackson Jr. Given that baseline, D-PIPM is very bullish on Jackson’s defensive impact in his rookie campaign. Jackson is being projected for a D-PIPM of +1.5, which would rank in the 94th percentile. That’s in the entire league, not just among rookies. To put that into perspective, Kristaps Porzingis, everyone’s favorite unicorn, has a projected D-PIPM of +1.5.

Of Note

As showcased, Memphis figures to have multiple high level wing defenders as well as decent to solid defensive guard play. As a result, it should come as no surprise that the Grizzlies project to rank 10th in perimeter defense this coming season.

Additionally, while going through the grades for the Grizzlies roster, it really stands out how many players bode well in defensive rebounding. This is also borne out in the projection data, as The BBall Index is predicting Memphis to be the 2nd best defensive rebounding team in the league.

In theory, if the defensive talent we have highlighted can force opponents into tough shots, and Memphis cleans up the glass as well as projected, the Grizzlies have the ingredients to get back into the top ten defensive units in the league.

The Chef

Last season’s defensive optimization grading for Bickerstaff ranked him in the 11th percentile among 54 head coaches in The BBall-Index database (dating back to the 2013-14 season and excluding tanking seasons).

In contrast, David Fizdale ranked in the 67th percentile, while Dave Joerger was in the 88th, 92nd, and 22nd percentiles during his tenure (the 22nd percentile is the season where Gasol was injured).

Bickerstaff hasn’t shown an ability to get as much out of his players on defense as his two predecessors did. Also worth mentioning, while Kyle Anderson continually grades out well in defensive analytic categories, Gregg Popovich ranks 1st in defensive optimization in the database.

The points of optimism, however, are that last year Bickerstaff functionally didn’t have Conley, nor did he have Kyle Anderson or Jaren Jackson. It remains to be seen how Anderson will play out of the Spurs system, or how Jackson will fair as a rookie. But the pieces are there for Bickerstaff and Memphis to Grit n’ Grind again.