The Golden State Warriors’ “Strength In Numbers” mantra has been a rallying cry for the past five seasons. Their style of play turned it into a principle that they take immense pride in, even if it hasn’t been completely true.

The high-octane core of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green is what the Warriors are running on now, turning what was once a key asset into their biggest liability early in the season.

While the core powers the team, it is to the detriment of the bench. For the second unit, there’s no strength. There are no numbers, and it sure as hell isn’t providing any “strength in numbers.”

Over the first four games of the year, opponents have outscored the Warriors’ bench 146 to 105. This is why Golden State has the tendency to let huge leads evaporate. It’s why management prioritizes long athletic wings who can defend and isn’t afraid to shoot. The lack of bench depth is why the Warriors are still holding on to the idea of Patrick McCaw instead of his reality.

The reality is that McCaw and the Warriors are at a stalemate that isn’t ending anytime soon, and they are ironically holding a space for him while they converted Alfonso McKinnie’s two-way deal into a roster spot for procedural purposes.

So was signing McKinnie the right choice for the bench, or were other invitees such as Daniel House and Damion Lee a better fit for the Warriors’ 14th spot?

With the Points Over Expectation (POE) stat, we can compare and contrast impact and usage adjusted efficiency metrics and see if the Warriors made the right move in promoting McKinnie to the roster.

OFFENSIVE COMPARISON

Created Points Over Expectation (CPOE) is the offensive component of POE. It measures the points a player scores per game above what an average player would be expected to score on those same opportunities. It looks just at scoring, not rebounding or passing.

During his two-way season with the Raptors, McKinnie was solid in his production, averaging 14 points and seven rebounds per game for the G-league affiliate Raptors 905 squad. In his 14 games with the Raptors, McKinnie’s CPOE was better than 73 percent of his G-League peers.

Among the three players, House was having the largest daily scoring impact based on his 87th percentile CPOE. Last season, House averaged 17.3 points per game in the G-League. With Phoenix, he averaged 16 points per game against the Warriors.

Lee averaged 14 points per game for Santa Cruz and 11 in limited action for the Atlanta Hawks last season. Lee’s CPOE, like Mckinnie was solid, better than 73 percent of G-League players.

DEFENSIVE COMPARISON

Defensive Points Over Expectation (DPOE) is the defensive component of POE. It measures the points a player concedes per game above what an average player would be expected to concede on those same opportunities as a primary defender.

Lee holds the edge in DPOE over McKinnie and House. For the Sea Dubs, Lee only surrendered 6.5 points per game, and his DPOE was better than 76 percent of the league. Defensive POE stats are worth noting because, again, the Warriors have a penchant to use long wings that can consistently defend and Lee is prototypical in that regard.

House surrendered 10 points per game last season in G league action, about average (54th percentile) for the possessions he was the primary defender for.

On the other hand, McKinnie was better, with a DPOE better than 66 percent of the G-League. Two thirds of the G-League would have given up more points than McKinnie did if facing the same offensive possessions. Not captured in this number is McKinnie’s hustle for rebounds, which gives him an added boost defensively in my mind. For a team that struggles with rebounding, McKinnie’s aggressiveness on the boards is appreciated.

 

OVERALL COMPARAISON

Since fringe players are always bouncing from the NBA to G-League affiliates, it is tough to consistently gain measurable stats. For a team like the Warriors, who emphasizes the inclusion of the entire roster in some capacity selecting a solid role guy is just as much of a priority as the Core and the regular rotations of the second and the third units.

Honestly, a solid argument is there for all three players. McKinnie’s strong preseason and penchant for rebounding is why he is on the active roster. House’s offense could have helped the bench. Whereas Lee seems to be the most balanced of the three, but a foot injury derailed his preseason and his chance to shed his two-way contract for a guaranteed deal.

The Season is still young. McCaw may or may not return and this slot is still up for grabs. For a team with not much in-season drama, the battle for a fringe role is the best the Warriors can conjure up for now.

Enjoy.

Graphics by Aidan Lising