There’s an “end-of-an-era” atmosphere surrounding this San Antonio Spurs season. For the first time in more than 20 years, very few people would be surprised if Gregg Popovich’s squad missed the playoffs in the Western Conference.
The 2-2 Spurs have some significant weaknesses with their roster. Perimeter defense is the big issue, but there are other problems. That said, the amount of talent on the San Antonio roster is too much to write off completely.
One talent of note is Rudy Gay. The 32-year-old forward hasn’t yet found his niche in a winning environment, but he has an opportunity to do so in San Antonio. He is the Spurs’ biggest X-factor this season, so let’s dissect his game.
But first, check out Gay’s BBall Index player talent grades and Player Impact Plus-Minus numbers from 2013-14 to 2017-18. Ready about the difference between talent and impact stats here.
What Gay Brings on Offense
Notice all that navy blue in Gay’s talent grades above? The former UConn star has a wide variety of useful attributes on offense.
Gay is a steady ball-handler with excellent touch around the basket, as evidenced by consistently high finishing and post play skill grades. His leaping ability has declined since his athletic prime, but he had outlier wingspan (7’3”) and standing reach measurements (8’11.5”) for his height at the 2006 Draft Combine. His length, combined with a thick upper body, make him a tough cover for a variety of defenders.
Additionally, the 32-year-old is a serviceable shooter and playmaker, and he’s improved as a cutter. He did have a down year as a perimeter shooter in 2017-18, with a skill percentile of 18.7 among wings with 1000 minutes, per BBall Index’s talent grades. This year, though, he’s not coming off an Achilles surgery and has canned 14 of his 21 three-pointers since the beginning of preseason.
In summary, there isn’t a lot he can’t do on offense.
The issues with Gay come primarily with the utilization of his skills. Gay and his teams have not maximized his skills very well for much of his career. He’s usually been on average to bad teams where he’s been the No. 1 or No. 2 option. Gay is good, but he’s not at the level where he can elevate a team as a primary or secondary offensive option.
He’s ball-dominant for a wing and has always used a lot of isolation and post-up possessions, which don’t promote ball movement. According to Nylon Calculus’ offensive role classifications, he’s been labeled a “ball stopper” every year since 2015-16.
His O-PIPM data since 2013-14 illustrates some of his squandered talent. While he’s been consistently above league average in offensive impact, he’s mostly hovered in the 68th to 72nd percentile in that statistic. Considering approximately 500 players see NBA action per year, that places Gay’s offensive impact right around 140th to 160th league-wide in a normal year. That’s not where someone with his diverse skill set should belong.
At 32 years old, Gay remains the offensive player he has been much of his career. The main differences from a few years ago are a decline in athleticism and an improvement in shot selection.
However, he’s still a multi-skilled offensive weapon with some needle-moving potential on that end.
What Gay Brings on Defense
Gay averages out as a net neutral on defense, as his talent data and up-and-down impact data suggest. His length and strength are assets against anyone he marks. However, his lack of quickness and agility is problematic. This is especially true when he goes up against younger, quicker wings.
Notice how a simple screen took him out of the play several times against Taurean Prince and the Hawks in preseason. It happened in the Lakers game, too.
Gay does have his positive moments. For example, he contained LeBron James one-on-one beautifully several times on Monday.
Gay is a plus on the defensive boards, too. I suspect his raw rebounding numbers will increase with no Dejounte Murray or Kyle Anderson to swoop in for caroms from the perimeter.
Overall, Gay is best suited to defend slower wings and outside bigs, or basically, the “4” types in today’s NBA. Quick players generally give him a lot of trouble, as do screens.
What the Spurs Need From Gay and Why He’s the X-Factor
The Spurs have DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge to head up the team’s offense. They don’t need Gay to rank first or second in shots per game, as he did for his team in every season between 2007-08 and 2016-17.
They do need Gay to be a dependable third option who can embrace working well off the ball. The team would welcome Gay continuing his improvement in off-ball movement and having a breakout year in perimeter shooting. DeRozan and Aldridge both dominate the ball and are low-volume outside shooters. They badly need cutters and floor-spacers around them.
Defensively, Gay won’t have the luxury of guarding 4s most of the time. The Spurs’ rotation thus far has consisted of Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli, DeRozan, Gay, Dante Cunningham, Davis Bertans, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol and Jakob Poeltl.
The first four guys don’t have either the size, athleticism and/or mentality to check big, offensively skilled wings. The last four aren’t quick enough.
So who will San Antonio call on to check the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum? Cunningham will chip in, but it’ll probably have to be Gay most of the time. For the Spurs to stay respectable on defense, they’ll need Gay to pick up his effort on that end of the floor. Maybe cutting a little bit of weight could be helpful, for the sake of adding quickness.
San Antonio’s current roster looks like it belongs on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff race. But if Rudy Gay embraces his third option role and takes pride in checking some of the NBA’s best players on defense, the Spurs could be a pleasant surprise this season.
All regular season video clips used are from NBA.com. Preseason clips used were from the FreeDawkins YouTube account.
