Week 1: Adjusting Expectations in Cleveland

Looking back at week 1 and considering the implications for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Statistics shown above exclude heaves and garbage time stats.

Three games, each lost by three possessions or more. The worst defense in the NBA to date. Presumably, this isn’t what management had in mind when signing Kevin Love to a lucrative contract extension. The implication of that deal was that the Cavaliers were equipped to be competitive in the post-LeBron James era. Perhaps not capable of winning the Eastern Conference, but being in the hunt for a playoff spot? Finding a measure of success while building towards a brighter future? These seemed within the realm of possibility.

It’s only been one week. LeBron and the Los Angeles Lakers also sit at 0-3. So do the Oklahoma City Thunder. Overreacting to small samples is silly. At the same time, those two teams have a solid basis for expecting things to turn around. Russell Westbrook, the driving force of the Thunder offense, just returned from injury. LeBron hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2005.

Cleveland’s performance has some bright spots. Now starting, the young Cedi Osman has averaged 17 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists per game with above average shooting efficiency while playing 36 minutes per game. Love has been a monster on the boards and is creating shots for both himself and others, even if he hasn’t been efficient so far. The offense as a whole is performing reasonably well (108.9 offensive rating, No. 17 in the NBA).

None of this covers over the fact that the defense is broken. Cleveland is No. 28 in opponent eFG%. Opponents are consistently getting to their spots, with the Cleveland guards offering little resistance at the point of attack. Wing help rotations are uncoordinated, leaving 3-point shooters wide open at an alarming rate. Rim protection is nonexistent from the Cleveland big men—currently there are 25 NBA players that match or exceed the 1.7 blocks per game that the entire Cleveland team is mustering. The team is No. 26 in defensive turnover percentage.

The team defense has been an unmitigated disaster:

  • Kyle Lowry: 27 points on 104% true shooting
  • Jimmy Butler: 33 points on 92% true shooting
  • Trae Young: 35 points on 73% true shooting

Perimeter scorers are dominating. The defense presents a buffet of passing angles to opposing point guards (four players have notched seven or more assists against Cleveland to date, including Derrick Rose). The transition defense is abysmal, with three or four players consistently below the foul line when a shot goes up (opponents are running on 40% of live rebounds.

Until several of these issues are resolved this team will not be competitive. They will not be in the hunt for a playoff berth. They will not win 30 or more games. The only race they look to be competitive in is the hunt for the No. 1 pick.

All of this may seem harsh, but decisions made now will have a lasting impact. It’s understandable that a team which built its identity around LeBron for the last four years is having trouble determining who they are now. However, with every draft selection and contract extension the franchise’s future is cemented a little bit more.

Maintaining the status quo with the hope that someday someone can fill the void left by LeBron is wishful thinking. The first week of the season has been a wakeup call about where this team is right now. It’s time to adjust expectations and make decisions with the future in mind.

Cleveland Cavalier schedule for Week 2:

Cleveland Cavaliers Week 2 Schedule

All cited statistics from Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference.

Graphics by Riley Gisseman.

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