What Has Stabilized for the Grizzlies?

In an earlier article we looked at what may have stabilized for the Grizzlies to that point of the season. The foundation for analysis was this study by Krishna Narsu, which looks at how many games it takes before you can trust a team’s stats. Since the last time we checked in we have crossed the threshold for a few more categories. With that in mind let’s dive into what has stabilized for the Grizzlies after ten games.

Assist Percentage

Memphis fans rejoice! As of this writing the Grizzlies are 3rd in assist percentage. This makes intuitive sense as outside of Mike Conley the team doesn’t have a guy that can break down a defense. Memphis is also averaging the 2nd most passes made per game this season.

Among the 54 coaches in The BBall Index’s coaching optimization database, dating back to 2013-14, J.B. Bickerstaff ranks in the 78th percentile for offensive optimization. This could in part explain Shelvin Mack’s fantastic start to the season.

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These aren’t ground breaking passes or even anything that will garner an audible “oooohhhh” at your local LA Fitness. But Mack is finding shooters across the court and hitting them with accurate passes. The shooter doesn’t need to lunge to catch the ball, he can just stroke it.

Assist percentage seems to be a stat that has stabilized for the Grizzlies at a sustainable level.

Opponent 3-Point Attempt Rate

Look away, Memphis fans. The Grizzlies are 25th in opponent three-point attempt rate. Memphis is allowing 37.9% of their opponent field goals to be three-point attempts. The good news, however, is Memphis is allowing the 10th fewest amount of three point attempts per game.

Despite the large percentage of shots by opponents coming from distance, opponents aren’t racking up a high volume of three-point attempts. This is a product of the fact that Memphis is dead last in pace, which feeds into the Grizzlies allowing the least amount of total opponent field goals per game.

Win Percentage

The Grizzlies sit at 6-4 with a win percentage of .600. I’m skeptical of win percentage as your point differential is a better indicator of future performance. Right on the mark though the Grizzlies have a pythagorean win, loss expectation of 6-4 based on their +1.6 point differential. Additionally, the Grizzlies’ net rating is 1.4, almost identical to their average margin. Speaking of net rating..

Net Rating

That mark of 1.4 ranks 12th in the league. We’re still six games away from defensive rating have stabilized for the Grizzlies, but Memphis ranks 5th in that category. They have gotten a fantastic defensive contribution from Mike Conley, according to our DPOE data.

Memphis is 19th in offensive rating, which is in line with my top 20 optimism. The Kyle Anderson-Marc Gasol pairing created intrigue prior to the season since the two players graded as an A- and A, respectively, last season in our playmaking data.

This isn’t pretty, but not much for the Memphis offense is. Still, more please.

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Turnover Percent

That last thing that has stabilized for the Grizzlies is their turnover rate. Memphis is turning the ball over the 5th fewest amount of times per 100 possessions. Again, this makes sense given that they’re passing the ball so much.

Here’s some more evidence Mike Conley is awesome. Among guards that have played in at least 5 games and are averaging at least 25 minutes per game, Mike Conley is tied for 8th best turnover rate. Of those seven players ahead of him, only one is a point guard.

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