How Much is David Fizdale to Blame for Kevin Knox's Struggles?

Like most worthwhile things in 2019, the question sprang from a Twitter reply on a blog post. Drew Steele of Posting and Toasting had spent 1500+ words digging into Kevin Knox’s historically poor season using every statistic imaginable. “Digging” being the operative word because ScooterToots really buried the rookie wing.

He was justified in doing so. Knox is the least efficient scorer in the league among the 117 players taking 10+ shots per game. The BBall Index’s proprietary grading system is not kind to him either. The table below shows Knox’s individual Talent Grades. On the left are percentiles and grades comparing him to the league as a whole. On the right is how he stacks up to other wings who have played at least 1500 minutes this season.

I already knew Knox has been mostly dreadful during his rookie year, but I read the column for the same reason I drink bourbon. I don’t enjoy the burn, but I thought it might toughen me up. I’m trying to steel myself for the brutal homestretch of this painful season like Happy Gilmore in the batting cages. I don’t have to explain it to you. If you’re reading this then you already know all Knicks fans are masochists to a degree.

One of those masochists chimed in on Twitter, positing that maybe coach David Fizdale is partly to blame for Knox’s statistically woeful rookie campaign.

NB: some of these stats may have slightly changed as they were gathered on March 6, 2019.' Probably worse after last night I imagine. Hard to have faith in him at the moment and I think Fiz has done a poor job of looking after him. He should have sat for a few games at the least

— Mark Douglas (@markattias) March 7, 2019

We can all agree that Knox would be struggling regardless of his team, system, or coach. He simply didn’t come into the league physically or mentally prepared for an 82-game season. But, the question still stands: Is Fizdale putting the rookie wing in the best positions to succeed on offense?

Initially, I was skeptical. That skepticism was driven by the feeling that Knox was wasting too many possessions via post ups and isolations. Can you blame me? Fizdale has force fed Knox on post ups for the team’s opening play in four of the last five games:

Those patterns can stick in your mind and color your perspective. In my head, a bulk of Knox’s shots were coming out of isolation, devoid of help from his teammates. In reality, that mostly hasn’t been the case. Per Synergy, a negligible 5.6% of Knox’s used possessions have come out of post ups and isolations combined. That’s 51 possessions total, fewer than one per game.

So, before criticizing Fizdale for misusing him, I had to understand how Knox has been generating his shots. Below, I’ve outlined Knox’s most-used play types in the half court and tried to assess the level of Fizdale’s culpability for Knox’s performance in that area.

First, I want to acknowledge that Knox has been an efficient player in transition, which is his third-most used play type. He has finished 16.3% of his used possessions in transition and scored 1.136 ppp (ranking in the 58th percentile league wide). For this exercise, though, I’m less interested in that part of his game. Transition looks tend to be opportunistic, not the product of coaching schemes. In this article, I’ll be focusing exclusively on Knox’s deployment in the half court where Fizdale’s system and play calls have more influence on the looks Knox is getting.

Spot Up Shooting

(28.2% of Used Possessions, .937 PPP – 39th Percentile)

The plurality of Knox’s used possessions have come on spot up attempts. That’s normal for a wing who doesn’t act as the primary ball handler. His spot up frequency is in line with guys like Harrison Barnes, Rudy Gay, and Otto Porter. Many of those spot ups have resulted in catch-and-shoot threes. The plays largely all look the same. Knox stands at the three-point line providing space for some primary action, and the ball-handler finds him for an open look:

Right now, as a spot up shooter Knox is approaching adequate. On catch-and-shoot threes, he’s hitting 33.5% this season on a high volume of attempts. That’s not good accuracy, but there’s hope. He’s making 37.2% of his wide open threes, per NBA.com. Compare that to just 30.8% on his “open” threes. Once he gains strength, experience, and more dynamic teammates to create more open looks, I fully expect his numbers to climb.

Overall, I don’t think Fizdale deserves heavy blame for Knox’s spot up inconsistency. The rookie gets some good looks. Per NBA.com, 36.9% of his shots come on “open” or “wide open” threes. It will be a matter of growing his confidence and knocking those shots down. His career success will largely hinge on how good of a three-point shooter he becomes, and it’s the one area that I’m not worried about him developing. Mechanically, his shot looks smooth and he’s shown enough flashes of versatility in the jumper to feel reasonably good about it going forward.

Pick-and-Roll Ball Handler

(18.6% of Used Possessions, 0.88 PPP – 63rd Percentile)

If you’re looking for bright spots, the fact that Knox has shown competence running a sizable volume of pick-and-rolls is a good starting point. For someone whose ball handling ability is so limited, he has shown promise using his size and an understanding of angles to get decent looks. Lately, he’s developed some chemistry with Mitchell Robinson whose threat as a lob target keeps defending bigs from committing to the ball handler:

When Knox does struggle in the pick-and-roll, it’s mostly because of his deficiencies as a passer. He lacks vision and instincts distributing the ball. Too often you’ll see his teammates left hanging with both hands in the air. Watch Dotson wide open in the corner looking like a member of the Village People:

Or Dennis Smith Jr. in the far corner here looking like an NFL referee watching a field goal soar through the uprights:

Per NBA.com’s player tracking data, 228 players have recorded at least 100 drives this season. Knox ranks dead last, 228th, in passing out of those drives at just 11.6%. If he can actually start finding his teammates, he’ll force fewer bad shots out of these pick-and-rolls.

If you listen to the television broadcasts, you’ll hear reports that Fizdale is urging Knox to look for crosscourt passes like this one:

Fizdale just needs to keep encouraging Knox to pass the ball when the defense is loading up on him. If he can develop that aspect of his game, he has a chance to become a legitimate pick-and-roll threat.

Hand Off

(10.8% of Used Possessions, 0.64 PPP – 16th Percentile)

If you’re looking for a reason to feel like Knox’s pick-and-roll production is fluky, this is probably it. Hand offs are functionally very similar to pick-and-rolls. It’s basically a way to get non-ball handlers into pick-and-roll situations. And Knox has been brutal on hand offs. Among the 50 players to record at least 70 hand offs this season, Knox ranks dead last in scoring efficiency. Going through the tape, one potential reason I noticed is he turns so many hand offs into long twos:

In general, Knox takes way too many long mid-rangers. Per Cleaning The Glass, he takes 15% of his shots from long mid-range, which is a higher proportion than 80% of forwards. He makes just 28% of those long twos. As far as Fizdale’s role here, he needs to stress that contested long twos aren’t the answer. If you want to argue that Fiz has given the rookie too much latitude to take whatever shots he wants, I’ll listen. These are the kinds of looks that develop bad habits and should be eliminated from his shot diet outside of late shot clock situations.

Cut

(2.8% of Used Possessions, 0.84 PPP – 4th Percentile)

Knox is arguably the worst cutter in the league both in terms of how often he cuts and his ability to score off those rare cuts. I was so excited when I saw Knox catch Davis Bertans overcommitting here:

Granted, that blown lefty layup made it all the more depressing, but it still represented progress. However, this is not a Knox-specific problem; it’s systemic. As a team, the Knicks finish just 4.3% of their possessions off cuts, the lowest rate in the league. And, they score 1.2 points per possession, which ranks 29th in the league. I understand that, on the season, the Knicks haven’t been equipped with the most capable passers and playmakers. But, that doesn’t explain away the utter lack of smart cutting on the offensive end.

The Verdict

How much has Fizdale factored into Knox’s struggles this season? In my estimation, not a great deal. Schematically, the Knicks’ offense isn’t sophisticated, but it has provided Knox with a healthy mix of different shot types. Here are some things that would help Knox even more than a brilliant head coach:

An ability to finish in the restricted area
Consistently knocking down open threes
Excising contested long twos from his shot selection
Passing the ball to open teammates

One final thought: I’ve heard some rumblings that Fizdale has played Knox too many minutes and that has contributed to him wearing down. I don’t subscribe to that notion at all. His minutes are mostly in line with his peers. He’s 19 years old; he was going to wear down over the course of the season no matter what. Fizdale can do more to nudge the rookie in the right direction, but the heavy lifting is going to need to be done by Knox this off season if he’s going to become a plus NBA player.

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How Much is David Fizdale to Blame for Kevin Knox’s Struggles?

Tom Piccolo