Examining the Justin Holiday trade in hindsight

The Memphis Grizzlies imported Justin Holiday over two months ago. At the time we were cautiously optimistic about the move. Holiday isn’t that good, but the things he brought addressed some weaknesses on his new team. However, it was a clear overpay in terms of the assets given up to acquire his services.

31 games later we now have a body of evidence through which to examine the Holiday trade in hindsight. Hindsight is clearly not the best way to evaluate a trade. The process of the decision making at the time of the trade is what should be evaluated. However, we are examining how the trade worked out. Has Holiday been good or bad? Were the two second round picks worth his services? What is the opportunity cost associated with the trade?

With that in mind, here comes the analysis.

Offense

The theory of the case upon acquisition was that Holiday could launch threes and hit them at a decent rate. During his 38 games on the Bulls this season, Holiday hit 35.9% of his threes on 7.1 attempts per game. To put it kindly, Holiday has been a different shooter since joining the Grizzlies.

During his time in Memphis, Holiday is bricking his was to 28.6% shooting from distance on 3.6 attempts per game. To reiterate, he essentially cut his 3PA’s in half, while watching his accuracy nose dive. In Chicago he was draining his way to 40.4% conversion from the corners, while with the Grizzlies that mark has dropped to 30%.

What’s more, Holiday has reverted back to belching up terrible mid-range jumpers.

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To be fair, the first clip ended with a rushed shot to beat the shot clock, but the entire sequence is just terrible.

As a Grizzly, Holiday is shooting 32.4% on shots between 16 feet and the three-point line. On shots between 10 feet and 16 feet, Holiday is converting 39.1% of his attempts. In the short mid/floater range between 3 feet and 10 feet, Holiday is hitting 4.2% of his shot attempts.

That’s not a typo. 4.2%.

Packaged together, Holiday is sporting an eFG% of 42.2%, and a true shooting percentage of 45.8%, as a resident of Memphis. Not great, Bob.

Quick Hitters

Holiday’s assist rate has gone down since joining the team. On a team starved for playmaking and offensive creation, this almost seems impossible. Additionally, his turnover rate has risen while on the Grizzlies.

Defense

Our grading system still loves Holiday the perimeter defender. He has an A- in the category among all players, and his A- holds up among all guard and wing players that have logged at least 1,500 minutes this season.

(Quick tangent: Buzz, your offensive grades, woof)

When we evaluated this deal at the time it was struck, Holiday’s perimeter defense grades were a B among all players and a B- among wings that had logged at least 500 minutes. Therefore, the evidence shows that his defensive play has improved since joining Memphis.

Further proving this data point is his standing in D-PIPM. At the time of the trade, Holiday’s D-PIPM of 0.1 ranked 28th among point guards, 28th among shooting guards, and 25th among small forwards.

As of this writing, his D-PIPM has increased to 0.6. Such a mark ranks T-13th among point guards, T-12th among shooting guards, and T-17th among small forwards.

Holiday has logged 1,325 minutes as a Bull and 837 minutes as a Grizzly this year. Considering his grades, and D-PIPM mark and rankings pre-trade are more heavily weighted than his time in Memphis, and he has dragged his defensive impact up from the low 20’s in three position groups to, let’s call it, the mid-teens in three position groups, it’s not outlandish to say Holiday has been one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA during his 31 games as a Grizzly.

For the record, we noted Holiday’s DRPM at the time of the trade as well. It stood at stands at 0.02, which ranked 22nd among point guards, 23rd among shooting guards, and 41st among small forwards. His mark in the category as of this writing has increased, as it is now 0.2. However, his standing amongst the position groups has mostly held steady, as a DRPM of 0.2 ranks T-22nd among point guards, 24th among shooting guards, and 37th among small forwards.

The Whole Package

In total, Holiday ranks 131st in PIPM among his position group (SG) and 65th in RPM among his position group (SF). He is dead last in O-PIPM among shooting guards, out of 139 qualified candidates.

And he can walk this summer. Holiday is slated to hit unrestricted free agency come July, so any team that wants to overpay for his services can get into a (sad) bidding war against the Grizzlies.

All this for the low, low price of two second round picks. It seemed like an overpay at the time as one second rounder should have done the trick. It looks even worse in hindsight.

One of the second rounders is the team’s 2019 pick, which figures to be a top 40 pick. In a world where the NBA may have gone a little overboard in valuing second rounders, that is still a decent enough pick to find someone that slipped through the cracks and have him on a cheap-o deal. Such a potential asset figures to carry more value than potentially renting the worst offensive two-guard for three months in a lottery bound season.

Those two seconds could have been used as sweeteners in other trades, perhaps to get off some unwanted salary.

Memphis badly needed an infusion of youth and cheap contracts, and instead they ponied up two second round picks for Justin Holiday who is a free agent in a summer where the open market place will be flush with available cash.

The best case scenario now is the Grizzlies front office stays disciplined enough to recognize the sunk cost and let allow walk away come July.

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