Trading Bradley Beal Would Be Easy – And Stupid

Last week, Adrian Wojnarowski – the NBA’s all-seeing Lord Varys – reported that the now 7-12 Washington Wizards would listen to trade proposals for their entire team, including star duo John Wall and Bradley Beal:

As the Washington Wizards‘ season spirals, the franchise is making every player on its roster — including All-Star guards John Wall and Bradley Beal — available to discuss in trade scenarios, league sources told ESPN on Monday.

Fans and analysts fired up ESPN’s trade machine and got to work. Those looking to trade Wall weren’t very encouraged. His 15 percent trade kicker will likely paralyze Washington until his newly minted extension kicks in. Oh, and about that extension: It pays Wall $169 million through 2023. In the final year, at age 32, Wall will be owed $47 million.

So most of the trade speculation has involved Beal instead. Some of it has been more than pure speculation. But ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported on his podcast last week that Washington’s asking price is hefty. And the language of Woj’s reporting – “available to discuss” – suggests Wiz President of Basketball Operations Ernie Grunfeld isn’t actively shopping Beal to the highest bidder.

And he better not be.

Wall may be the longer-tenured Wizard, but Beal is the franchise’s crown jewel. Tied up for a hair over $27 million per year until 2021, the Florida product is both properly paid and a year or so from having real trade leverage. For all the chaos in Washington, giving a once inefficient, injury-prone Beal a max contract in 2016 was a home run. He is a plug-and-play star. Put him on any roster in the NBA and he’ll add more shooting and more ball handling.

Beal’s at his best running off screens, threatening defenses with his ability to catch, turn, and fire in one fluid motion:

He’s found new ways to leverage that shooting stroke every season. He can continue up toward half court, pivot back toward the sideline, and dance into a pick-and-roll. And he’ll dissect teams with simple yet incisive passes, especially when bigs cheat up on his jumper:

He can also curl all the way around the screener when his man is trailing too tightly and slither into the paint:

Three years ago, Beal would’ve felt Evan Fournier on his hip and pulled up from 15 feet. No longer. He’s hesi-dribbling that sucker from his hip to his butt and getting all the way to the rim.

Finishing at the cup has been Beal’s greatest leap this season. He’s shooting a career-high 75 percent in the restricted area, a full ten-point leap from his career average. The St. Louis native is attacking off two feet and getting the best elevation of his career, giving him the ability to finish through – and above – contact. Just look at these three beauties against the stacked Raptors defense:

Players who can shoot, drive, pass, and finish fit in on any roster. And while the Wizards stud isn’t a plus on the defensive end, teams don’t target him either. He isn’t giving all of his points right back.

So, yes, everyone and their mother would want Bradley Beal.

Would the Hornets do Miles Bridges or Malik Monk, Bismack Biyombo’s hellish deal, and a first-rounder? Probably. Any chance the Lakers punt some 2019 cap space and decide to flip Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Ingram, Michael Beasley, and a pick? It’s possible. Could Orlando offer Evan Fournier, Jonathan Isaac, and a lottery-protected first? Sounds fair. Our very own Preston Ellis even suggested that one.

But just because Beal will demand a handsome return doesn’t mean shipping him off is a good idea. At just 25 – a tad younger than Otto Porter, in fact – his on-court value will only rise over the next couple of years. Beal’s not only worth his current contract, which runs through 2021; he’ll likely be worth his next one, too.

That future deal, assuming it’s long-term and close to a max, will carry him from his age-28 season into his early-30s. He may not be an all-star in 2024, but skilled wings with silky strokes usually age well. BBall Index’s PIPM projections reveal a per-year free agency value, an estimate of how much cash a player should get on the open market, hovering around $40 million until 2025-26. That’ll be close to the number he actually receives.

Even if this iteration of the Wizards has flamed out, there’s no reason the seven-year pro can’t be a key piece of the next competitive team Washington assembles.

The only real hurdle is his 2021 free agency. But with more than two-and-a-half years until then, and no murmurings of a desire to bolt, Grunfeld has until next season to gauge Beal’s interest in staying without his trade value depreciating. The Wizards should see that buffer period as an invitation to stay patient, even as the losses pile up.

No one this side of LeBron is truly untouchable, of course. If the Lakers offer Lonzo Ball and Ingram, you listen. If Memphis calls and talks Jaren Jackson Jr., you think twice about hanging up. But most stars don’t return a one-for-one haul in trades. And if the Wizards really do just want to “shake things up,” why get pennies on the dollar for the one key player on the roster actually worth what they’re paying him?

Beal would be easy to trade. With a fair contract and a fungible skill set, he can fit in anywhere. Wall’s mega-extension and Porter’s max deal don’t have the same allure to potential buyers; they’ll fetch a protected pick, maybe an okay young rotation player, and some salary filler.

But the reason Beal is so much easier to trade is the same reason for keeping him: He’s really freaking good, and still so young.

Maybe you subscribe to the idea that “desperate times call for desperate measures.” That’s’ fine. Shopping Beal isn’t a desperate measure. It’s just a bad idea.

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