The NBA season is underway and the Washington Wizards are 0-2.

They lost a heartbreaker against the Miami Heat and resident Wizard-killer Kelly Olynyk on Thursday night. The Wiz then dropped their second straight on Saturday thanks to a sparkling second-half performance from Fred VanVleet, who led the Kawhi-less Toronto Raptors to their third win in four nights.

Two home games, two losses. A few silver linings, but plenty of issues to correct.

3 Observations

John Wall Looks Like 2016-17 John Wall

The Wizards won 49 games and were a game away from clinching a conference finals berth in 2016-17. John Wall was one of the 12 best players in the world that year.

But after an injury-plagued 2017-18 in which Wall missed 41 games and looked substandard even when healthy, he was a question mark entering this campaign. He’s been excellent so far.

The Wizards have played at a rapid 103.8-possession pace, up from 97.72 last year, with Wall leading the charge. He puts intense pressure on the basket whenever he can stretch his legs in the open floor, unlocking an inside-out attack that yields juicy looks from deep:

A player’s ability to attack without a screen at the NBA level is often a bellwether for how bouncy his legs feel. Wall’s feel pretty good apparently. On several occasions, he’s sized up a defender in isolation, loaded up on his right leg like a cobra ready to pounce, and exploded left with the defender fooled:

His speed gives him the ability to break into the teeth of the defense. Just as the jaws start to close, he delivers the killer pass:

The 28-year-old has looked aggressive and fiery. His per-game counting stats: 25.5 points, 7.5 assists, 11.5 free-throw attempts, 50 percent shooting. Not bad.

The Wizards Can’t Rebound

Washington has so far collected 59.5 percent of available defensive rebounds, a league-worst mark. Take a moment and think about how silly that number is: Provided they didn’t turn the ball over, opponents have earned seven cracks at scoring every five trips down the floor.

Foul trouble crippled the Wizards against the Heat, leaving Washington’s big men to watch from the bench while Miami snatched 22 offensive boards. The perimeter players were the primary culprits against the Raptors, as Toronto’s wings snuck into the paint unimpeded to keep plays alive:

Dwight Howard can’t solve the ball-watching, but his eventual return will help. He’s 6’11” with a pterodactyl wingspan and t-rex strength. He can box out his own man and reach out of his area to snatch the ball from paint-crashing intruders.

The former All-Star graded out in the 65^th percentile in defensive rebounding among bigs with 1000-plus minutes played last year – not great, but far better than Washington’s other center options.

Scott Brooks Has Changed Very Little

Last year’s 43-win disappointment probably should’ve sparked some changes in Washington. The limited evidence we have this season suggests it didn’t.

Scott Brooks has kept his hockey-style rotations, teasing Wizards fans with two minutes of a Beal-led bench unit before pulling the Florida product for eight reserve-only minutes. Credit to Bullets Forever for alerting me almost immediately:

New year, same rotations. All five reserves are on the floor with three minutes to go in the 1Q.

— Bullets Forever (@BulletsForever) October 19, 2018

The early returns are icky. Washington’s bench squad has played 19 minutes together so far, posting a 43.8 true shooting percentage in that limited sample. Time to panic? No – the sample is too small. But it’s clear Brooks wants the starters damn near quarantined from the bench.

The offensive sets also remain predictable. The Wizards have mostly alternated between Wall pick-and-rolls and pindowns for Beal or Porter. Those plays are often efficient, but they’re also Washington’s typical bag.

Markieff Morris has occasionally received a token post-up. Brooks should find other ways to keep him engaged:

2 Questions

What pick-and-roll defense is Washington playing?

I’m still not sure how Brooks is instructing his players to defend on-ball screens. Wizards bigs have sometimes sagged into the paint, which makes sense due to their limited mobility. Other times, they’ve switched, which has ended poorly.

Washington’s guards have also appeared to play an ICE system at times, taking away the middle and forcing opposing guards into a big guarding the sideline. Wizards bigs missed the memo:

Ian Mahinmi is stuck between ICE and drop coverage there, ceding far too much space to Kyle Lowry, a perennial All-Star to whom you cannot cede any space at all. This time, Morris does almost literally nothing:

I get what Morris is thinking. Serge Ibaka can shoot, and he wants to take away the pick-and-pop. But unless you’re switching, you’re going to give up something. Refuse to give up something and you’ll give up whatever the offense wants.

Can Washington keep up the defensive intensity?

Despite the rebounding and pick-and-roll troubles, the Wizards have looked energetic on defense. Wall’s been especially active, coming up with five steals and four blocks through two games.

When Wall gives even 75 percent effort, Washington’s defensive potential skyrockets. He often stops trying after the first 15 seconds of a possession, but he’s been a rock in isolation and protecting the rim:

All told, the Wizards rank first in the league with 16.5 deflections per game and 12.5 loose balls recovered. Brooks has length everywhere. Washington can be a strong help-and-recover team if he can harness it.

1 Prediction

The Wizards will start 0-4

First up on Washington’s five-game road trip is the Portland Trail Blazers, last year’s seventh-best offensive rebounding team. Good luck stopping Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum with a pick-and-roll defense best described as a work in progress.

The Wizards then face Golden State at Oracle Arena. Expect the line to be something like Warriors -9.5.

But don’t worry. This franchise has often needed a jolt. That 49-win season two years ago began with a 2-8 run that prompted inquests into Brooks’ tenure almost immediately after he arrived. Reel off a few wins on this road trip, take care of business at home, and the season will be up and running.

Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images