This series will take an early look at several top prospects that Cleveland Cavaliers fans should have on their radar, starting with Zion Williamson.

Powerful.

Explosive.

Breathtaking.

Zion Williamson has placed himself at the center of NBA Draft discussion early this season. He’s a unique player, standing 6’7” tall, but weighing in at 285 lb. His ball-handling and burst enable him to play on the perimeter, driving past frontcourt players that just can’t keep pace. His strength and explosive leaping ability enable him to play on the interior, catching lobs and proving to be a powerful force on the offensive boards. He’s clearly a physical outlier, and as such has a ceiling worthy of a No. 1 pick.

The difficulty with analyzing an outlier, however, is that they are by nature unique. There are very few useful frames of reference for Zion, which can make projecting his long term role and development problematic. While his physical tools and broad skill set deservedly place him in the conversation for the top pick, developing a clear vision of how he will be best utilized in the modern NBA is essential before using such a valuable asset to select him.

Let’s consider first what is known about Zion, then what questions still need to be answered.

What we know about Zion

• Height, length and reach are typical of a small forward
  • 6’7” tall
  • 6’10.5” wingspan
  • 8’7” standing reach
• Weight, strength are typical of a center
  • 285 lb
  • 73% field goal percentage at the rim on a high volume of attempts
  • 16.1% offensive rebound percentage
• Young for his draft class
  • Will turn 19 years old during summer league in July 2019
• Explosive burst and leaping ability
  • On 14 isolations he’s gotten to the rim 12 times and finished 75% of those attempts
  • They literally had to raise the bar in order to measure his vertical leap
• Well-rounded skill set
  • Excellent ball-handling for his size
  • Solid passing skills for his size
    • 15.4 assist rate
  • Workable jump shot
    • Relatively smooth mechanics
    • 2-8, 25% from 3-point range
    • 6-11, 55% from mid-range
    • 24-35, 69% from the free throw line
  • Has a knack for making high impact defensive plays
    • 9.1% block percentage, better than a typical power forward but worse than a typical center
    • 3.0% steal percentage, which would be a strong mark for a perimeter player

Questions that need to be answered

What is his primary position in the NBA?

At power forward, the presence of another big could inhibit the frequency and efficiency of Zion most dangerous offensive skill: finishing around the rim.

At center, Zion’s lack of length could inhibit the team defense. Although explosive enough to block shots, his short stature forces him to commit earlier than a typical rim protector, which will necessitate additional layers of rim protection. His defensive rebounding is likewise subpar for a center.

To maximize Zion at both end of the court may require the elusive skill set of a 3-point shooting rim protector. His offensive skill set is tailor made to play the 5, but defensively he’s best utilized as the second layer of rim protection and a disruptive force on the perimeter. Of course, these impressions are based off early returns, and could be mitigated by him displaying any of the following skills over the rest of the season: a reliable jump shot to provide spacing from the 4, improved passing skills to facilitate more team offense, or better timing and patience as a rim protector.

If none of these things improve, however, an NBA team may have to choose whether they want to maximize Zion on offense or defense, and live with the ripple effects of that decision on the other end.

How much will his height and length limit him?

Zion’s most frequent play type to date is the putback. Yet despite his strength and leaping ability, which enable him to grab a ton of offensive boards, he’s scored just 18 points on 17 putback possessions. Likewise, on the other end of the floor his length forces him to commit sooner than most shot blockers, often biting on pump fakes. To his credit, quick recognition and excellent body control has allowed him to avoid foul trouble so far.

That said, it’s clear that Zion is a more effective rim protector in settings where timing is less crucial, such as in transition when offensive players have a more limited window in which to attempt a shot. Experience will help to some degree, but issues related to length could be persistent throughout his career.

What will be his offensive identity long term?

To date Zion has proven extremely effective in three play types: isolations, post-ups, and transition. The combination of quickness, strength and explosiveness, consistently places defenders in no-win scenarios when guarding him in these situations. That said, transition frequency can be limited by opponent’s style of play. Post-ups are no longer in vogue in the NBA. Isolations, while valuable individually, don’t tend to produce great team offense.

In order to be central part of an NBA offense Zion will need to develop his pick and roll game. His skill set could make him dangerous as either the ball-handler or screen setter in this action, a rare combination.

However, he’s averaged just one pick and roll possession per game so far this season. Learning to use his strong frame to set effective screens will be critical to his long term success. It is a simple yet effective way of weaponizing his skill set. Does he have the right mentality to develop into a willing screen setter?

Likewise, in order to be effective as a pick and roll ball-handler Zion will need to develop another part of his game. He has the ball-handling and burst to score consistently and efficiently out of this action, which means his gravity will consistently generate an imbalanced defense as opponents scramble to help at the rim. Does he have the court awareness to recognize these rotations in real time, or  the decision making to react accordingly? Is his passing ability good enough to deliver the ball quickly and accurately to 3-point shooters?

Conclusion

It is far too early in the season to draw any conclusions about what Zion will become and where he should rank among this draft class. It is clear that he will be in the conversation for the top pick in the 2019 draft, but his place atop draft boards should be considered tentative. Despite his clear upside, there are valid questions to ask about his game and his potential. Moreover, there are other viable candidates for the top pick. That said, as Cleveland is likely to remain in range for the top pick, he is a player every fan will want to get to know between now and June 20, 2019.

Conference play begins in January, with nearly every ACC game providing high quality film.

Measurements via Jackson Hoy’s database.

Statistics via KenPom, Hoop-Math and Synergy Sports Tech.