The San Antonio Spurs are about to clinch playoff berth for the 22nd straight year. Their seeding within the West’s top eight is still up for grabs, but it’s basically guaranteed that they’ll finish between fifth and eighth.

San Antonio has settled on a consistent nine-man rotation with the playoffs just a few weeks away. DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick White, Rudy Gay, Jakob Poeltl, Patty Mills, Davis Bertans and Marco Belinelli have played almost all of the important minutes since the trade deadline.

However, Gregg Popovich is still experimenting with lineups. There’s no single five-man group that has clearly stood out as the team’s best or most frequently-used unit. Finding that reliable group that can play key minutes will help as the Spurs prepare for matchups against high-quality West teams in the postseason.

Let’s try to figure out what that go-to group (or couple of groups) might be by looking at some data and by considering the specific skill sets and impact of each player.

Some Considerations

This lineup data post-trade deadline gives us a feel for what Pop has used since switching to a nine-man rotation.

There’s a lot of variety there. The current starters are the most common group and then a bunch of others fall in somewhat close behind. Overall, that starting group has still only played about 11.7 percent of possible minutes since the deadline, though.

Going from five-man groups to four-man groups helps show broader trends since February 6.

A lot of combinations have been around average since the trade deadline. Of note, the Aldridge-Gay-DeRozan-White quartet has been terrible and the Belinelli-Mills-Bertans-Poeltl group has been great.

But just because things have happened a certain way already, that doesn’t mean they will stay that way. Variance and opposing lineup strength are two reasons why merely looking at past lineup results isn’t enough. We need to examine each player’s overall impact and specific skill set when discussing combinations.

Below is the season-long Player Impact Plus-Minus data for the Spurs. Below that are BBall Index’s 2018-19 talent grades for offense and defense, updated through March 10 games.

 

 

 

Before we discuss actual lineups, these assumptions will be key to our consideration:

• Aldridge and DeRozan have been the Spurs’ two most valuable players this season, despite both of their slumps.
• White is way better than any other Spurs perimeter player on defense.
• DeRozan, Aldridge and Poeltl can’t (or don’t) shoot threes.
• Forbes, Mills and Belinelli are very good shooters and ball-movers who are subpar as defenders and rebounders.
• Aldridge, DeRozan, Gay and White are very good shot-makers, but they all thrive on having touches.

Great Against Bench Units: Mills/Belinelli/Bertans/Poeltl plus one of DeRozan/Gay/White

We mentioned above that lineups involving Mills/Belinelli/Bertans/Poeltl have been fantastic since the trade deadline. That’s actually been a season-long thing. They have a plus-22.4 net rating together.

Lineups that include those four and one of DeRozan, Gay and White succeed because they take on the personality of the 2014 Spurs. They dazzle fans with perimeter shooting and crisp ball and player movement and frequently destroy other bench units.

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Against the best lineups of the Western Conference, this unit won’t fare as well. Having Mills and Belinelli on the floor together (and sometimes even Forbes with them) for long stretches against All-Star guards and wings is not going to work defensively. This group’s chemistry and ball movement will still shine through at times on offense. But the lack of athleticism, length and individual offensive skills will struggle against starting defenders on playoff teams.

These units will still see the court a good amount in the playoffs against bench-heavy lineups. Their play will remind the rest of the team of the value of ball movement and teamwork.

However, their minutes together will likely decrease a bit in the postseason. There’s not nearly enough size, athleticism or one-on-one offense for them to be in consideration as the Spurs’ best lineup.

Offensively Challenged:White/Forbes/DeRozan/Aldridge/Poeltl and White/Forbes/DeRozan/Gay/Aldridge

These are Pop’s two most common starting lineups this season. They’ve both seen a lot of time against the opponent’s best players. Both units have negative net ratings. They also possess offensive ratings of 99.7 and 104.2, respectively. For reference, San Antonio’s overall offensive rating this season is 112.1.

It’s understandable why Popovich has started both groups, though.

The first lineup sets a good defensive tone for a below-average defensive team. Aldridge grades out as an A-level interior defender and Poeltl is just behind at an A-minus grade. Those two make the opponent to score in the paint. White is very good on the perimeter.

However, the unit has awkward spacing with three guys who don’t take threes. White has also been pretty inconsistent as a perimeter shooter. They’ve drained just 18 long balls in 153 minutes together, which translates to 5.6 made threes over a 48-minute game. The NBA league average is 11.3 made threes per game.

Inserting Gay for Poeltl is a defense-for-offense sub. Even so, it creates a “too many cooks” situation. DeRozan, Aldridge and Gay easily have the three highest usage rates in the Spurs’ rotation. It’s tough to maximize all of their games when White also needs touches and Forbes requires the occasional spot-up three or attack of a closeout to stay in rhythm.

The spacing with this group still isn’t ideal, and the amount of self-created offense going on here with Aldridge, DeRozan, Gay and White doesn’t foster much ball or player movement.

Subbing Forbes out for Mills or Belinelli in either of these lineups would produce similar results. Bertans could come in for Forbes to improve the defense a bit, but the spacing would still struggle.

The Best: White/DeRozan/Bertans/Aldridge plus one of Forbes/Mills/Belinelli

Did I mention that Bertans is awesome?

He ranks No. 35 in the NBA in PIPM (plus-2.51). Of the 34 players above him, only Draymond Green (12.5) and Al-Farouq Aminu (13.0) and have lower usage rates than he does (13.2).

Even though Bertans is just 25-of-78 from downtown since February 25 (32.1 percent), he’s still shooting 44.1 percent from behind the arc this season. He also grades as a 97th-percentile perimeter shooter, best on the team.

I believe Pop should pencil Bertans into all of his closing lineups. At 6’10” with decent athleticism, he’s a tremendous boon to spacing without needing shots or compromising defense. That’s helpful at the end of games when DeRozan and/or Aldridge attempt to take over.

Every game, there are numerous occasions where Bertans’ defender refuses to disrupt the Spurs’ on-ball action in fear of him draining a three.

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DeRozan and Aldridge are the two offensive workhorses that need to be on the floor in key moments. They are both A-level players in at least three offensive talent categories. DeRozan’s 97th-percentile playmaking is key to maximizing the shooting of Bertans and Forbes/Mills/Belinelli. Conversely, they help him maximize his elite one-on-one (91st percentile) and finishing (99th percentile) abilities.

White is in mainly for defense, but he’s also a respectable third option to have as a change of pace from DeRozan and Aldridge.

So with DeRozan, Aldridge, White and Bertans, Pop has a great foundation. The results are there for that quartet, as they have a plus-21.9 net rating together in 207 minutes together, mostly against strong opposing lineups.

The fifth player needs to be a shooter that doesn’t need too much usage. Mills is the favorite with PIPM and has marinated in the Spurs’ culture for eight seasons. Forbes has been the most consistent shooter, and Belinelli is the most explosive scorer. All three are legitimate options here for Pop depending on the matchup and how each is playing.

I would lean towards Mills or Forbes, since Belinelli sometimes takes too many shots. Regardless of who the fifth player is, there’s enough defensive support from the other four players on the floor to hold the group together on the end.

While it’s a bit of a cop-out to include three “best” lineups, these are three very similar lineups with good balance and high-quality players. Popovich should and probably will find success with these lineups down the season’s final stretch and in the playoffs.

Note: All statistics are from NBA.com or Basketball Reference unless otherwise indicated. Highlights are from Ximo Pierto or NBA.com.