The playoffs are right around the corner. What should the Pacers rotation look like?

The Indiana Pacers are a deeper team than last year and by a fair amount. In last season’s playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Head Coach Nate McMillan rolled out an 8 man rotation with a sprinkle of Trevor Booker to make it 9. That was the best the Pacers could do.

Now, thanks to internal improvements and some summer additions, the Pacers are rolling out up to 10 man rotations in some games, and they have 11 or 12 guys who can be on the court in certain scenarios. Their depth has been one of their biggest strengths in the regular season.

But in the playoffs, that doesn’t matter so much. It’s not that the Pacers players won’t be as effective. Each player will still bring the same skillsets to the table and will fit in on the team just as well as they have all season.

It’s what other teams do that changes things. Teams with superstars (1 or more) will play them for more minutes, and thus other players will be cut from the rotation. If Oladipo was still healthy, that might have happened to Doug McDermott. But that isn’t the case anymore.

Instead, the Pacers have a tough task on their hands. What is the best way to maximize a team with no superstars come playoff time? It’s a tough conundrum to navigate.

There are some players whose skills you just need. Wesley Matthews is needed for defense and shooting, he grades out as a B+ Perimeter shooter and a C defender (not great, but one of the teams better options). Bojan Bogdanovic is in the 92nd percentile in one-on-one situations, he is the Pacers last remaining off the dribble creator. Myles Turner’s A graded interior defense is required, as is Thaddeus Young’s good…everything.

Domantas Sabonis and Darren Collison both grade out as fantastic (>89th percentile) playmakers, an essential skill for breaking down a defense. Sabonis all is a stud finisher. Those 6 guys are a lock to be in the playoff rotation.

Cory Joseph doesn’t really excel at any skill in particular (though his perimeter defense grade is very good), but he is a lock to be in the rotation as well. He is one of the best in the league at translating his talent to impact and he is a key cog in the Pacers rotation even when considering his recent struggles.

That’s 7 guys right there. If the Pacers go 8 deep as they did in their win over Oklahoma City last week, that leaves Tyreke Evans, Doug McDermott, TJ Leaf, and Kyle O’Quinn fighting over one spot and some filler minutes.

McDermott’s defense grades are putrid. He grades out as an “F” perimeter defender and a D+ interior defender. That’s a tough sell for the playoffs. But he’s an elite off-ball mover and fantastic shooter, which makes up for a lot of his shortcomings. Those skills help the players around him, too. He could get minutes and help the team.

TJ Leaf got the filler minutes in that OKC game, but I struggle to see him getting playoff time over McDermott (who has been far better than Leaf all season and ahead of him in the rotation). Leaf has made bounds of improvement this season, but I’m not sure he’s a smart choice for a playoff rotation.

Tyreke Evans grades out as… just okay at a lot of stuff. He’s been frustrating as all hell for the Pacers this season, but he has come on with some good play of late. Because he doesn’t suck at anything AND he has a solid one-on-one player grade, I feel as if Tyreke is the most likely guy to get spot number 8.

Kyle O’Quinn, oh sweet Kyle. He’s been great in his limited minutes this season, but there is no reason to have him in over Sabonis or Turner. He could be a great guy to come in should both of them be in foul trouble (or if the Pacers go hack-a-whoever), but I doubt he sees much playoff time.

The question for the end of the rotation is will the Pacers go 8 or 9 deep? Having Evans, Joseph, and Sabonis be your only guys off the bench could work with the game slowed down, but that’s a looooot of minutes for Thaddeus Young and Bojan Bogdanovic to have to soak up at the forward spots. If the Pacers 8th best player was a forward, perhaps they could get away with going 8 deep. But they can’t. They need Doug McDermott to space the floor for the second unit and to give Young and Bogdanovic a rest.

McDermott could play the 4 and basically, have the Trevor Booker role from last year. Get in the game, do the things you are good at for 10 minutes, and be ready when called on. McDermott would be a perfect fit in that role.

As for the minutes’ distribution, another challenge presents itself. Do the Pacers pursue minutes for the Turner-Sabonis pairing? The team has to find out if they can succeed together in a playoff setting at some point. But it hasn’t been the most effective pairing this season. It’s still a + duo, but not by much, and not by nearly as much as having Thad Young in the game.

At every other position, the minutes’ distribution is pretty clearly defined. But with Thad Young being the teams most important player, I struggle to imagine the frontcourt rotation. If you put a gun to my head, I would guess the playoffs end with this as the average minutes per game for the Pacers:

The wild card to me is Tyreke Evans. If he can play as well as he has in the last two games for the Indiana Pacers, he could easily see his minutes rise to the mid-twenties at the expense of Matthews and Joseph. The Pacers will need to be able to break down defenses off the dribble, and Evans is one of their best options for that.

Playoff rotations can also depend on your opponent. While it still could technically be multiple teams in the first round for the Pacers, the Celtics look like the most likely option. They don’t run out any super crazy lineups that would cause the Pacers mismatches, so I think this standard-ish rotation (with inflated minutes for the key 7 guys) would be the Pacers best option. The playoffs are right around the corner, and it’s time for Indiana to start prepping. Getting the minutes distribution right is a start on that process.