Dwight Howard is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year and an eight-time All-NBA selection. He was the second-best player in the world at one point in his career. Just two years ago, he signed a 3-year, $70.5 million contract with his hometown Atlanta Hawks.

But, at 32, only two numbers really matter for the Wizards’ new center: he has been employed by five teams in the last three years. Like clockwork, he’s annoyed coaches, cramped teams’ payrolls, and been escorted out the door.

His tenure with the Nets lasted as long as it took the team’s PR staff to write this (very depressing) paragraph:

The Brooklyn Nets have acquired center Dwight Howard from the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for center Timofey Mozgov, the rights to the 45th selection in the 2018 NBA Draft and a 2021 second round draft pick. In a related move, Brooklyn has requested waivers on Howard.

Against that bleak backdrop, we’ve created a narrative about Howard that he’s become a negative-value player – not good enough on the court in Houston, Atlanta, and Charlotte to warrant the massive salary and the off-court hoopla.

That’s true, but not the full story. Nearly every center in the NBA has seen his on-court value plummet in the new small-ball revolution. Howard hasn’t declined that much since his time in Houston, but the league has evolved away from centers who can neither defend the perimeter nor shoot from it.

Teams still need players like Howard, of course. Not every franchise can have an Anthony Davis or a Karl-Anthony Towns, and teams that prefer to go small still use limited big men to eat minutes in the first and third quarters. Howard’s challenge has been adjusting to a league in which his skill set is merely needed, rather than actively wanted.

He’s not doing too well.

Big-on-big post-ups are reserved for the NBA’s elite interior scorers, and Howard is not one of them. But the Georgia native has constantly demanded touches, flatlining otherwise workable offenses and befuddling three coaches – JB Bickerstaff, Steve Clifford, and Mike Budenholzer – who all left for greener pastures within a year of coaching Howard.

Last season, the 6’11” giant averaged 8.0 post-ups per game, fifth in the league. The results – as they have been throughout his career – were brutal. He finished in the 25^th percentile in post talent among bigs with more than 1000 minutes played. His 0.83 points per possession figure wasn’t acceptable even as a late-clock safety valve.

It’s not like Howard doesn’t have offensive skills. Those skills are just more useful in other situations, which is why the opportunity cost of each post-up is so high. Instead of drop-stepping into a turnover or clanging a jump hook off the rim, he could hit a guard with a bruising pick and rampage to the rim.

The Atlanta native finished with a B- in roll gravity, an A in finishing, a B- in off-ball movement, and an A in offensive rebounding last season among bigs with more than 1000 minutes. Those numbers provide the outline of a solid roll man who can attract help defenders and put the other team in rotation. He has a ridiculous catch radius and can finish powerfully at the rim:

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Away from the ball, the Atlanta native feasts on putbacks and drop-off passes in the dunker spot. With shoulders sculpted by Michelangelo himself, he bullies dudes out of the restricted area for easy buckets:

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The challenge is getting Howard to commit to such a low-usage role. That’s nothing new, really. Writers and TV personalities have been calling for Role Player Dwight since his volatile stay in Houston. The difference now is that his cheapo 2-year, $11 million pact with the Wizards may well be his final chance.

Washington’s offensive ecosystem couldn’t be better for Howard. The Wizards have one of the most guard-centric offenses in the NBA. They used just 8.2 post-up possessions per game last season, 23^rd in the league and just 0.2 more than Howard alone.

Instead, they run oodles of pick-and-rolls to take advantage of John Wall’s downhill speed and Bradley Beal’s underrated craft. And with the emergence of Otto Porter and the arrival of Austin Rivers, the offense promises to be even more perimeter-centric this year.

Wizards centers set screens, roll to the rim, and feed off scraps. If Howard wants post-ups and elbow touches, too bad – he won’t have much of a choice under Scott Brooks.

That’s a good thing. Washington’s spacing-heavy starting lineup of Wall, Beal, Porter, Markieff Morris, and Marcin Gortat put up 110.6 points per 100 possessions last season and 111.9 the year before. Those numbers are strong, and they’re entirely replicable this season.

Howard’s a more athletic rim-runner than Gortat and far better at finishing through contact and drawing fouls. For Wall – an elite pick-and-roll playmaker – a big-bodied target who can suck in defenses and open up cross-court dimes will be a godsend.

If Howard can’t become a limited screen-and-dive center in Washington, it’s worth wondering whether he can adjust at all. If not here, where? And if not now, when?

The eight-time All-Star is 32 – 33 in December – and garbage-man centers require the mobility to constantly sprint from the dunker to spot to the top of the key. Howard is an aging, enormous center, with nearly 40,000 minutes on his legs. According to our own models at BBall Index, his roll gravity and off-ball movement grades are expected to drop precipitously over the next three years.

Lose some speed, and help defenders will stop cheating so far into the paint. Lose some bounce, and the lob threat evaporates entirely. The big man will already be unplayable in certain playoff matchups with his statuesque perimeter defense. It could get really ugly once his actual strengths start to diminish.

The clock is ticking for Howard to remain a productive NBA player and salvage his reputation. He’s a starting-caliber talent, no doubt. But at some point soon, his talent won’t be enough to keep overcoming the risk of drama.

Some of his work in Washington will come off the court. He can’t be the match that sets off an already explosive Wizards locker room.

Even the off-court chemistry starts between the lines, though. Can Howard stay motivated as a rim-protector when he doesn’t touch the ball on the other end? Can he have fun rolling to the rim instead of posting up? Can he put in maximum effort on the glass? Can he help the Wizards win?

We’ll find out soon.