Upstart Kings Dismantle Hawks at Home

After climbing to the top of the Southeast division, the Atlanta Hawks have now lost four straight games. The latest a pitiful 146-111 demolition at home against the Sacramento Kings.

Three Observations

1. Get used to losing streaks

Going into this year there was a lot of excitement surrounding this group. The Hawks had brought in a new coach and a nucleus of first-round draft picks in the summer.

However, going young–while fun–comes with its own set of downsides.

Atlanta is currently in the midst of one of those downsides, losing four consecutive games after splitting their first four games.

Based on where the franchise is in their development, these ups and downs will continue on for the remainder of the season.

Instituting a new regime and getting rookies adjusted to the league is no easy task.

While the beginning of the season highlighted the potential of this group, it is more likely that the rest of the season will consist of games more along the lines of what we’ve seen during this extended losing streak.

2. Injuries are starting to pile up

Injuries have been an issue for this team dating back to training camp. As the masses still await John Collins’ second-year debut, there have been other players joining him on the sidelines over the course of the first few weeks of the season.

The latest addition is rookie Kevin Huerter. Huerter’s leg was rolled up on, causing him to miss the rest of this game and leaving his status for the upcoming games in the air.

One of the things that can put a thorn in the side of rebuilding roster is an injury.

Already missing Collins for an extended period, adding another core young piece to that list is no help to the Hawks progression this year.

Atlanta has also been without Justin Anderson and Alex Poythress, who remain out with leg and knee injuries respectively.

Wins are always nice, but the most important thing for the Hawks to get this season is healthy.

3. Kevin Huerter is coming

Originally, I had hoped to do a deeper dive on Kevin Huerter’s jump from stuck on the bench to key rotation piece, but as mentioned above Huerter left this game early with an ankle injury.

Huerter was part of the Hawks massive youth movement this season as one of the team’s three first-round picks in the 2018 NBA Draft. Coming out of Maryland, a lot of the focus on Huerter’s play was about his shooting ability where he was a career 39.4 percent shooter from the perimeter in two years.

Huerter is scorching the nets at 47.4 percent (on 19 total attempts). However, it’s his all-around abilities that have earned him his spot in Lloyd Pierce’s rotation early.

His Per 36 numbers help paint this picture; he’s averaging 12.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, one steal, and 0.6 blocks per 36. The list of players to average those numbers or better for a season is a who’s who of current and future Hall of Famers.

Right now, Huerter’s minutes per game fluctuate between 15-20, leading to an average of 14 minutes through eight games. If he is able to find his way to more playing time, it will provide a better look at what Huerter could potentially provide this team in the future.

Two Questions

1. When does the losing streak end?

Four straight losses start to hang on the collective confidence of any team. As young as the Hawks are, not many of their core contributors are used to suffering these many losses consecutively.

With this being Pierce’s first year at the helm, I’m sure he would like to get this losing streak behind him as quickly as possible.

Over the course of the team’s next 10 games, they will face six teams that currently have winning records (Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angles Clippers, and Toronto Raptors) and they face five of the six in a row.

With that vaunted backloaded stretch upcoming, Atlanta will have to end this streak sooner rather than later.

With two division games on the slate to begin this 10-game stretch, there would be no better way to end this current snide than getting a few wins over some familiar foes.

The Hornets are currently atop the Southeast standings with a 4-5 record, and like Atlanta, they too are working under a new coach (James Borrego). Things have clicked a little better in Queen City than they have in Atlanta, largely behind the impassioned play of Kemba Walker.

Even though the road hasn’t been kind to the Hawks to begin the year (1-5 in road games), I think this game offers the end to the losing.

2. How bad has Trae Young been on defense?

Per NBA.com the Hawks rank a modest 18th in defensive rating through eight games allowing 110.2 points per 100 possessions. In this season’s elevated pace, that might not seem too bad when teams have routinely allowed 120-plus points a night.

Pierce has prided himself on being a defense-first coach, but it takes time for an identity to take form.

Alas, things haven’t been horrible on the defensive front. Players like Dewayne Dedmon, DeAndre’ Bembry, Kevin Huerter and Kent Bazemore have helped to keep this team afloat.

Yet, when the Hawks traded for Trae Young in the 2018 NBA Draft, they hitched their wagon to an undersized point guard.

In his first season, Young has struggled on the defensive end of the floor–he has a defensive rating of 114.1 and a net rating of -16.2 (third worst on the team). His defensive impact, luck adjusted, has yielded the third worst D-PIPM in the league.

Young has often times been caught inattentive away from the ball and has struggled to get through screens too. Those off-ball issues are seen in the spot up defensive data, where he has been exceptionally poor, resulting in a spot up defensive points over expectation mark 6th worst in the NBA.

Listed at 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, not much is going to change stature wise for Young going forward. These rookie defensive struggles were to be expected, but may be a long-term ongoing concern with Young. History doesn’t shine well on young poor defensive guards, with the average percentile growth in BBall Index’s Perimeter Defense grade being a measly 1.5 percentile points from ages 20-25.

The areas where Young has truly been the most deficient can be worked on and coached up; though he is unlikely to make headlines for his defense at any point this year. Young’s struggles should not be a reflection on his skill, but instead a reflection of his adjustment to the NBA level.

One Prediction

1. The Hawks will commit 30 turnovers in a game

One of the biggest flaws for the Hawks as a team this season has been their tendency to give the ball away.

This is an expected outcome, given the team’s young roster and at the pace in which Pierce wants this team to play.

On the year, Atlanta is averaging 19 turnovers per game, placing them at the bottom of the NBA in the stat.

They turned it over a season-high 24 times in their opening night loss to the New York Knicks. As this team continues to work things out, expect the high turnover numbers to continue.

It wouldn’t surprise me if one of the elite title contenders (read: Warriors, Raptors) put the clamps on this team, resulting in them handing the ball to their opponent a painstakingly 30 times in a game.

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