Odds are you do not think about three-pointers when you think of the Memphis Grizzlies. They do not resemble the Rockets, Bucks, or Celtics, teams bombing away from three on at least 40 percent of their field goal attempts. But the long-ball has been an important part of the Grizzlies season, both offensively and defensively. Now that their own, and their opponents, 3P percent has stabilized, we can get a clear idea of what is happening for Memphis beyond the arc.

Offense

The Grizzlies are 12th in 3P percent as a team. For what it’s worth, there isn’t much separation in the category among teams ranked 7th to 16th. A few makes or misses on a given night could shift your standing by five spots. Being in the better part of the league for Memphis is essential to their 26th ranked offense.

Too Much Mid-Range

In shots taken from 3′-10′ from the rim, Memphis takes the 5th largest percent of their total field goal attempts from that range. They take the 11th most from 10′-16′, and the 16th most from 16′ out to the three-point line. In other words, they rank in the top half of the league in all shooting zones that aren’t at the rim or from beyond the arc.

The bigger problem is the Grizzlies aren’t very good at thess shots. They’re pretty good from floater range (3′-10′), ranking 8th in FG% from that distance. But they are 20th in FG percent from 10′-16′, and 24th from 16′ out to the three-point line. This helps contribute to their standing as the 21st team in 2P%, and 19th in eFG percent.

Without a successful long-ball, the Grizzlies already bad offense could easily plummet to last in the league.

The Shooters

Five prominent rotation players are shooting at least 36% from three for Memphis; Shelvin Mack, Garrett Temple, Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green, and Mike Conley.

Shelvin Mack is blowing his career norms in long distance shooting out of the water. A career 33 percent shooter, Mack is hitting 40 percent of his threes this season on 2.5 attempts per game. He is also posting an A- grade this season in perimeter shooting, well above his career grade of C+.

Expecting some regression here makes sense, but there is one point for optimism that this could continue. Mack is getting really good looks. Of his 2.5 attempts per game, 1.4 of them are wide open attempts, defined as the closet defender at least 6 feet away. Another 0.8 attempts are coming on open attempts, with the closest defender 4-6 feet away.

Defenders tend to go under any screens involving Mack, which makes sense given he is a 33 percent career three-point shooter and isn’t a volume guy either. This has manifested itself into open looks that, at least for the time being, Mack is draining.

Gasol is another player on this roster being very selective with his shots from distance. Of Gasol’s 4.3 three-point attempts per game, 3.8 of them are wide open. He is shooting 39.5 percent on those open looks.

For the season Gasol is at 38 percent from distance, and has shot 37 percent on his last 734 attempts from beyond the arc, dating back to the beginning of the 2016-17 season.

Conley is up to 36 percent on the year and trending toward his career average of 37.6 percent, leaving room for more improvement in this area for the Grizzlies.

Defense

On the flip side, Memphis is 17th in opponent 3P percent. They’re also conceding a fair amount of attempts, as they are 16th in opponent 3PA per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies already rank 5th in defensive rating, but addressing this area could be their opportunity to climb into the top three. Perhaps addressing isn’t the right word, as they may just be getting a little unlucky.

The Flukes of Opponent Shooting

The two biggest areas to look at here are open shots and wide open shots. For open three-pointers, Memphis is allowing the 5th fewest per game, at 10.4. Unfortunately, opponents are hitting the 14th highest 3P percent on those shots. For comparison, Toronto is allowing 10.9 such shots per game, and opponents are hitting 32 percent of them, the 5th lowest mark in the league.

For wide open shots, the Grizzlies are allowing the 17th most such attempts per game. Opponents are shooting the 13th highest percentage on such shots. This is much more in line than compared to open shots, but in theory they’re still getting a bit unlucky in this area.

Is This Part of The Plan?

Per 100 possessions, the Grizzlies are allowing the 2nd fewest 2PAs. Part of this is due to Memphis slowing down the pace in any game they play. But opponents may just be shying away from two-point attempts against Memphis.

Opponents are shooting 60.7 percent at the rim against the Grizzlies, the 3rd worst mark in the league. From 16′ out to the three-point line, opponents have the 2nd worst FG percent against Memphis.

The Grizzlies are also allowing the 9th highest 3PA rate as a percentage of opponents’ total field goals. There is enough evidence to suggest that teams playing Memphis are both shying away from two-point attempts because of how good the Grizzlies defense is, and also are being allowed to take threes.

We can debate the merits of this strategy, but in the context of this article, if some of the unluckiness regresses for Memphis, opponents won’t be hitting open three-point attempts at such a high rate, potentially pushing this team into a top three defense.