The Nets Summer 2019 Outlook

The Nets can see the light at the end of the tunnel. We have the rest of eternity to debate if the KG/Paul Pierce trade was the worst trade in history. Another contender is the Gerald Wallace trade. The obligations have been fulfilled. The bad salary is mostly gone. Brooklyn owns its first round pick in 2019, and has a pathway to significant cap space this summer.

Let’s set the table for what realistic scenarios the Nets are looking at in the summer of 2019.

The Dinwiddie Extension

Brooklyn cut into some of it’s 2019 cap space already in order to extend Spencer Dinwiddie. The two sides agreed to a three-year, $34.3 million extension, with a player option on the third year. Both parties eschewed a potential four-year, $47 million deal, because team and player wanted Dinwiddie on a shorter pact. Dinwiddie can now get back onto the market ahead of his age 28 or 29 season, depending on how the next few years go.

In the short-term, Brooklyn broke into $10.6 million for next summer. Clearly between last season and this season, the Nets like what they have seen. Last year Dinwiddie was 13th in RPM among point guards. This season, according to our grading system, may be Dinwiddie’s best. He is posting an A- or better in three categories; one-on-one, finishing, and playmaking. He is also posting a B+ in perimeter shooting.

Perhaps most importantly, the Nets are using Dinwiddie as a shooting guard 63% of the time. This will mark the first season of Dinwiddie’s career that he spends the majority of his minutes not at point guard should this persist throughout the season. Given the categories in which he is posting high grades, there is a lot of evidence Dinwiddie can play along side a more traditional point guard.

This is important heading into the offseason.

2019 Draft

Brooklyn is 2.5 games out of the 8 spot in the East. They also have the 6th worst record in the NBA. The Nets are faced with a hard line to walk. Try for the 8 seed in a terrible East, or end up in the lottery. For a team that hasn’t had it’s own draft pick since *before* the current Golden State dynasty began, it might be nice to land as high up in the draft as possible. Especially when you aren’t really ready to compete in the playoffs, and your best case scenario is snagging one game off Toronto or Milwaukee in the first round.

On the other hand, for such dark days a return to the playoffs would be nice. The Nets are also sure to be heavily selling their culture come July. Being able to point to last year’s team as “a playoff team,” is a better pitch to free agents than “hey we just added the 6th best player in the draft.”

Yet, on the other hand again, a high lottery pick is a juicy trade chip. You never know the next pretty good player that will be made available. If Allen Crabbe’s expiring deal (there is a 99.99 percent chance of him exercising his $18.5 million player option next summer) is the salary filler, Brooklyn won’t even eat into their cap space (or maybe just a little). Such a theoretical player could be the first domino to landing bigger fish in free agency.

2019 Cap Space

But this is why you’re all here, the third act (and subsequent encore). Assuming Crabbe exercises his option, and the club exercises the $1.8 million option on Shabazz Napier, the Nets would have $47.2 million of committed salary for next season. The team can waive the non-guaranteed $1.6 million for Treveon Graham. If they decline all other cap holds they would have to incur four incomplete roster charges. This would cost them $3.6 million in cap space.

And oh don’t worry, the team is still paying Deron Williams. He will carry a dead cap figure of $5.5 million on the books next year.

Add it will up and Brooklyn is looking at a pathway to about $52.7 million. Should the Nets make the playoffs and own the 15th pick, they could look to dump Crabbe’s salary, which would get them to $71.2 million. They’ll probably want to “have a strong gut feeling” that certain guys are coming before shipping out their first draft pick since the Carter administration in a salary dump though.

That is a staggering amount of cap space, at either number. They aren’t the only team with wads of cash in 2019, but for once there is genuine reason for optimism in Brooklyn. Obviously the key is who will realistically join the Nets.

2019 Free Agents

No one knows what Kevin Durant wants in life, but let’s just say he isn’t coming. Let’s assume Klay Thompson isn’t coming either, and that Jimmy Butler stays. We can also, probably, safely work under an assumption Kawhi Leonard will stay in Toronto or leave for one of the L.A. teams. Kyrie Irving told a crowd of Celtics fans he plans to re-sign in Boston. For a guy who was hell bent on getting away from LeBron James, he probably doesn’t want one of the biggest PR nightmares since The Decision.

So if we’re looking for realistic targets, who is available? The best way is to break this into tiers:

Stars: Kemba Walker, Khris Middleton
Not-Quite-A-Star-But-Debatably-A-Star: Tobias Harris, Paul Millsap
You’re-Actually-Pretty-Good-And-Could-Be-Higher: Julius Randle
Stretch-4’s: JaMychal Green, Nikola Mirotic, Al-Farouq Aminu
Hey-Stranger: Brook Lopez

Stars

The Nets love Caris LeVert. Shabazz Napier is an excellent backup point guard contract. The Hornets have repeatedly stated they have no intentions of moving on from Kemba and Kemba has expressed a desire to stay in Charlotte. The overwhelming favorite to secure his services after this season is Charlotte.

On the off chance Kemba leaves, you’d have to figure it’s for a New York team. He’s from the Bronx. The Knicks and Nets have paths to improving. Charlotte has little flexibility. In New York he can team with Porzingis. In Brooklyn he can team with whoever else wants to join him in Barclays Center. Perhaps Shabazz Napier can help in the recruiting process.

And the Nets should want him, despite the depth at point guard they currently posses. His next max probably won’t age well, but Kemba represents the chance at a hometown star for a franchise that in recent history, in a word, has been irrelevant. Kemba is eligible for a starting salary of $32.7 million come free agency.

Middleton can opt-out of his $13 million option this summer. He is also eligible for a $32.7 million starting salary. I’m not going to speculate on if he will get a full max on the open market, but if Giannis wants him to stay the Bucks will probably throw it at him.

On that note, it’s unlikely Middleton leaves Giannis to join Brooklyn. The glimmer of hope is two confounding factors. The Bucks tax issues and Middleton wanting a larger role. Milwaukee is already making deals to avoid tax issues (see the Delly trade), so this likely won’t be an issue.

But Middleton is a career 39 percent three-point shooter who is currently posting the best per 36 minutes scoring mark of his career. 28 year olds like him get paid in free agency. Maybe Middleton wants a larger market after spending his whole career in Detroit and Milwaukee. Who knows what it will take to get Middleton to Brooklyn, but I’m sure Brooklyn is going to try.

Not-Quite-A-Star-But-Debatably-A-Star

Man is Tobias Harris having himself a year. He is again hovering around 40 percent from deep and posting the best eFG percent and true shooting percent of his career. Also, he is from New York!

Harris is another candidate for the “not sure he will get the full max” club, but 27 year olds like him get paid on the open market. Harris would fit nicely on this roster, providing stretch-4 play, and allowing Jarrett Allen to continue being the Clint Capela of Rockets East.

It’s likely Denver will decline Millsap’s $30 million team option. The two sides may come to a different agreement, but Millsap playing at that figure seems nearly impossible. Should the price be right the Nets can really use what Millsap brings to a team. This season Millsap is 13th in DRPM, and 23rd in D-PIPM. Overall, Millsap is 6th in PIPM among power forwards.

Taking the long view of the current roster, power forward is the biggest position of need. These should be top targets for the Nets in free agency at appropriate prices.

If the Nets open up the $71.2 million in space, is it possible they can land some combination of three players from these first two tiers?

You’re-Actually-Pretty-Good-And-Could-Be-Higher

Julius Randle is a truck. This dude is a bully. He has an argument for strongest player in the league this side of Steven Adams. He is one of the least switchable guys in the NBA. If you put a smaller guy on him, Randle will go straight through the defender to get a bucket. If you put a larger guy on him, Randle has the quicks to blow bye the defender.

Randle is posting these career highs; 25.2 points per 36 minutes, 57.8 eFG percent, and 61.7 true shooting percent. For the time being he is also posting a career high in three-point shooting percentage at 31.5 percent. That isn’t a great mark, but it’s the first time he has ever crossed the 30 percent threshold. And for the second straight year Randle is shooting at least 72 percent at the rim.

Should he decline his $9.1 million player option this summer (he almost certainly will) the Nets may be able to lock him into a multi-year deal below market value if teams aren’t too keen on a non stretch-4 power forward that is a defensive liability.

Stretch-4’s

Speaking of power forward being a need. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, DeMarre Carroll, and Jared Dudley make up the crux of the power forward minutes for the Nets. The team may move on from all three after this season.

Again, in order to line up four shooters for floor spacing with Jarrett Allen diving to the basket, Brooklyn needs a three-point threat at the four. Out of Green, Mirotic, and Aminu, Green looks to be the best fit. For his career Green grades as a B- in perimeter shooting, with his three most recent seasons at B, C+, B+. Also for his career he has an A grade in defensive rebounding, a category where the Nets rank 27th in the league this year.

Hey-Stranger

Whether or not Brook Lopez is interested in a return to the Nets is anyone’s guess. The fit between Lopez and Allen is a theoretical exercise for another time. Brook may need to be ok with a bench role for this to happen.

But he would provide a stretch-5 option. Additionally, he would provide some much needed post play. The BBall-Index grading database dates back to 2013-14. Since then, Lopez has an A grade in post play. The Nets, in stark contrast, are 27th in field goal percentage at the rim as a team this year, as Brooklyn is shooting 62.1 percent on shots within three feet of the basket.

You could argue mixing and matching some of these guys with retaining some of their own free agents is the best idea. The team is facing a tough decision regarding both D’Angelo Russell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. But the Nets should be willing to walk away from both if they can land the right mix of available talent on the market. And maybe one day they can stop paying Deron Williams money.

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