Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies Are Good and Twitter Can’t Handle It

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The Grizzlies are good again. It turns out this is shocking information to NBA Twitter. Memphis made the playoffs in seven consecutive seasons before an injury riddled tank job ended that streak. 16 games into the season, Memphis is 11-5. This isn’t a surprise to everyone, but let’s take a look at how the Grizzlies are doing.

Defensive Rating

After 16 games defensive rating becomes a stabilized data point. Good news, Memphis fans, the Grizzlies are 2nd in defensive rating. Here’s a fun nugget: Memphis has 9 of the 13 best three man combinations by defensive rating. Each of the four best three man combinations are all from the Grizzlies.

Memphis is entirely content to play to their strengths. Defense is their strength, and it is built on the back of Marc Gasol. Gasol the anchor is 1st in both D-PIPM and DRPM. He is doing this despite averaging more steals than blocks as a big man, which is odd.

Very indicative of Gasol’s entire career, though, is how he is manufacturing those steals. Gasol just thinks the game better than you. He isn’t racking up steals because he has raw athleticism to jump passing lanes. He is doing it because he has some of the most active hands in the league and is practically clairvoyant.

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Really think about that second clip. Gasol has his back turned to John Wall the entire time. He just sees the cut along the baseline and throws his paw up in the perfect position to deflect the pass. The best part is how nonchalantly Gasol saunters about life in the immediate aftermath of what just took place.

The Grizzlies are suffocating offenses and creating a feedback loop of their great defense leading to turnovers and their forced turnovers fueling their elite defense. Speaking of their forced turnovers..

Opponent Turnover Rate

The Grizzlies are leading the league in opponent turnover rate. This stat has already stabilized, but the underlying evidence further suggests it will persist. Memphis isn’t racking up steals by blitzing teams, gambling by jumping passing lanes and getting torched like a poor defensive back. The Grizzlies simply have smart defenders that know how to pick their spots.

The best example is Kyle Anderson. Ball handers seem to think they have beaten him around a corner, with a cross over, or there is just too much space between them and where they want to go for Anderson to catch up. Anderson’s 7’4″ wingspan doesn’t care at all if you think you’ve beaten him. That’s because you never truly have.

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In seemingly any situation Anderson can reach to the ball poke it away.

Opponent eFG%

The Grizzlies are 12th in opponent eFG% at the time of this writing. They’re 12th in both opponent three-point percentage and opponent two-point percentage, so this makes perfect sense.

There’s evidence to suggest Memphis will improve in this area. Team’s are posting an eFG% of 53.6% against the Grizzlies on “open” shots (closest defender 4-6 feet), the 8th highest mark in the league. This is buoyed by a 55.2% FG% on open two-point shots by opponents, the 3rd highest mark in the league.

You may say, well, don’t let up open shots. However, the Grizzlies are allowing the 4th fewest open shots per game, and the 4th fewest open two-point shots per game. The defense is doing its job by not allowing many open shots. Opponents are just draining them.

Denver is allowing the 22.4 open shots per game, the 3rd fewest amount in the league. Memphis is 4th, as previously stated, with 22.7. The Nuggets’ opponents have the worst eFG% on open shots, at 47.2%. As mentioned above, the Grizzlies’ opponents are posting the 8th best mark in eFG% on open shots.

Opponent Free Throw Rate

Memphis is 22nd in opponent free throw rate, or put another way, the Grizzlies’ opponents are getting to the line with the 9th highest frequency in proportion to their field goal attempts.

Clearly, this isn’t ideal, but two things.

1. Memphis is averaging the 11th most fouls per game. The two biggest offenders are Garrett Temple and Jaren Jackson Jr. Garrett Temple, for his career, as averaged 1.8 fouls per game. He is currently averaging 3.1 per game this season. Jackson has struggled in typical rookie fashion in this area, averaging 3.8 fouls per game. This was also a huge problem area for Jackson last season at Michigan State. It wouldn’t be too much of a jump to expect Temple’s foul frequency to regresses to mean, as well as for Jackson to improve as he gets his rookie feet under him. If those two combine to shave of 1.5 – 2.0 fouls per game from the team’s total, Memphis would drop from the 11th most fouls to the 19th-22nd range.

2. I guess this is proof you just can’t be good at everything.

Nevertheless, rejoice, Grizzlies fans! Memphis is ~20% through the season and the early returns are very positive.

Jonathan Rosenberg

Jonathan Rosenberg

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