For some time, Brooklyn has had relatively high playoff odds. The Nets turned around their season in December. Following an 8-18 start to the season, Brooklyn ripped off 9 wins in their next 10 games.

Slowly but surely they clawed their way to .500, finally getting there in mid January. Since then they have stayed above/hovered around .500, and seen their playoff odds fluctuate between 70% and 89%. As of this writing, their odds stand at 82% with 10 games to go.

Things look good, and have for awhile. The East is weak, and the Nets were one of the hottest teams heading into the All-Star break. Since returning from the break, however, Brooklyn is treading water. They’re sporting a 6-7 record with a -0.4 net rating that ranks 19th in the league since the league resumed played.

While Brooklyn recently passed a crucial test, a horrible storm is brewing. The Nets are currently on a three game losing streak, the first three games of a seven game road trip, with the initial six games against all Western conference opponents.

To lay it out, Brooklyn’s remaining schedule is at Sacramento, at Los Angeles (Lakers), at Portland, at Philadelphia, against Boston, against Milwaukee, against Toronto, at Milwaukee, at Indiana, against Miami. Woof.

Brooklyn might be favored against the Lakers if LeBron is getting load managed that night. Other than that, if team’s aren’t resting their regular guys, the Nets will only be favored in the last game of the season against Miami.

And that’s where all of this is going. Despite all the hard work to see their playoff odds top 80%, Brooklyn might very well need to get lucky against teams resting starters to back their way into the playoffs.

Brooklyn’s Current Situation

The Nets sit at 36-36. They’re 2.5 games up on the Magic, who are currently the 9 seed. They’ve dropped their last three games, all on the road, against Oklahoma City, Utah, and Los Angeles (Clippers).

The Los Angeles defeat was especially heartbreaking, as Brooklyn squandered a 19 point first half lead, fought back to tie the game with 5 seconds remaining after being down 10 with 1:02 left to play, and then losing on a 28-foot game winner by Lou Williams.

Next up on the docket is Sacramento, and it appears the Nets have about a 40% chance of winning that game. Working against their favor is the fact the Kings are definitely still putting forth their best effort in an attempt to squeak into the playoffs.

Sacramento also represents a matchup nightmare for Brooklyn. Our grading system can identify each team’s top strength’s and weaknesses. Tied for the Nets’ biggest weakness is perimeter defense, as their collective perimeter defense ranks in the 3rd percentile of the league.

This makes sense given the personnel, plus the Nets have an absolute inability to guard athleticism. Box score counting isn’t exactly the best practice, but recently the Nets allowed the following stat lines:

• Bradley Beal – 31 points on 12/22 shooting
• Kemba Walker – 25 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 4 steals
• Derrick Jones Jr. – 18 points on 7/10 shooting
• Larry Nance Jr. – 17 points on 6/10 shooting, 10 rebounds, 4 steals
• John Collins – 33 points on 13/20 shooting, 19 rebounds
• Paul George – 25 points, 9 rebounds
• Russell Westbrook – 31 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists
• Lou Williams – 25 points on 8/16 shooting

(For anyone outraged an Derrick Jones Jr. being included amongst these other names, the dude is pretty athletic)

De’Aaron Fox is next on deck.

The Darkness Ahead

The upcoming gauntlet Brooklyn has to navigate has no shortage on athletic shot creators. After the Kings game the Nets get the Lakers. If LeBron plays, and feels like trying that night (two big IFs), that itself could be enough to beat Brooklyn. As is, the Nets seem to have around a 35% chance of beating the Lakers.

Then it’s on to Damian Lillard before the quartet of Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, or Joel Embiid. Immediately following that Sophie’s Choice is Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum, Giannis, Kawhi (if he plays), and Giannis again.

Including the most recent three games the team has dropped, over the final 13 games Brooklyn gets to play four Western conference playoff teams, six games against the top five seeds in the East, plus the Heat, who are in direct competition with Brooklyn for playoff seeding.

The Doomsday Scenario

The odds are the Nets won’t lose all of their final 10 games, but they might not be favored in any of them, or just 1. While unlikely, it isn’t impossible. As of now, they’re being projected to finish 39-43, meaning fivethirtyeight expects them to go 3-7 over their last 10.

Where are they getting those three wins? If we just give them the last game of the season at home against Miami, it is still difficult to find two more wins. If LeBron rests we can give them the Lakers game, but that still gets us to just two victories.

Will 38-44 be enough to get into the playoffs? Perhaps, but the Magic and Heat are both projected to finish 38-44, so it would come down to tie breakers. After all the highs of this unexpected season, and the appearance of a very likely playoff birth to show for it, missing the postseason would be soul crushing (although it shouldn’t make the season as a whole be viewed as a failure).

There’s a chance the Nets get lucky and their opponents rest guys against them down the stretch. LeBron, Embiid, Kyrie, and Kawhi are always load management candidates. Once we’re into April and there are five games or less remaining, teams may already have their seeding locked in. Milwaukee, Toronto, and Indiana may have nothing to play for by the time Brooklyn pops up on the schedule.

But it’s both slightly crazy and absolutely terrifying that it’s this close of a call with 10 games remaining.