The Spurs Must Re-Embrace the Three-Point Shot

San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has never shied away from voicing his contempt for the three-point shot. One such occasion came late in a playoff run four years ago.

“I hate it,” Popovich said after Game 1 of the 2014 NBA Finals, per USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt, via USA Today’s Nate Scott. “To me it’s not basketball, but you got to use it.”

In those Finals, San Antonio proceeded to carve up the Miami Heat with crisp passing and an onslaught of long-distance shots in their five-game series win. The Spurs knocked down 55 three-point shots in the series, shooting 46.6 percent on those attempts.

In fact, the 2013-14 campaign was the 10th consecutive year in which where San Antonio ranked 16th or higher in percentage of field goals that were attempted from three-point range. They extended that streak to 11 in 2014-15.

Pop didn’t like the shot, but his team still frequently utilized it.

The Spurs Have Resisted the Three-Point Boom

That has changed in the past three seasons, at least in relation to the rest of the NBA. Look how the Spurs’ long-distance frequency has stagnated going back to 2011-12. That year was the unofficial starting point of the league-wide boom in three-point volume.

Pop’s personnel has made it difficult for the team to fully accept what most of the league already has embraced. Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol are strong mid-range scorers who like to operate in the post. San Antonio frequently used two traditional big men who rarely shot threes on the floor together. Perimeter players Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson and Dejounte Murray hardly shot any three-pointers. The aging of Parker and Manu Ginobili made creating quality drive-and-kick opportunities difficult.

What About This Year?

The 2018-19 roster has a new feel to it, especially among the perimeter players. Injuries, free agency and trades have absolutely decimated that position grouping. San Antonio will likely be without Dejounte Murray for the season. Derrick White and Lonnie Walker are out six to eight weeks and indefinitely, respectively. Leonard, Anderson, Parker, Ginobili, Danny Green and Brandon Paul all left in the offseason.

That means San Antonio’s only real options at the two guard slots to start the season are imported All-Star DeMar DeRozan along with Patty Mills, Bryn Forbes and Marco Belinelli.

Fans of defense, shield your eyes as you watch the Spurs feebly attempt to guard the perimeter with these four players. According to BBall Index’s player grades, in 2017-18, all of them ranked in the 45th percentile or worse in perimeter defense among seasons from players in their position group (guard for Mills, wing for DeRozan, Forbes and Belinelli) with at least 1,000 minutes since 2013-14.

But there is some hope on the other end of the floor for the quartet. That hope comes in the form of a potentially potent long-distance attack.

DeRozan is statistically the best playmaker San Antonio has had since at least 2013-14. His league-wide playmaking percentile of 96.4 last season tops any season from Parker, Ginobili or any other Spur who has played on the team in that same span.

Mills, Forbes and Belinelli don’t have the requisite skills, size or athleticism to consistently make plays with the ball. However, they are all very capable spot-up shooters. They each rank in the 79th percentile or better in perimeter shooting for their career among all players since 2013-14.

DeRozan should act as the de facto point guard when he’s on the floor, at least until White returns. He’ll be the one initiating the offensive sets and getting most of the pick-and-roll reps. Mills, Forbes and Belinelli can help him off the ball by spacing the floor, shooting when they’re open and making a quick pass when they’re covered.

White also was a high-volume sniper in the G-League as a rookie last year. He did register a 98.3 percent perimeter shooting grade in very limited minutes. He should still chip in as a solid shooter when he gets back from his heel injury.

There are some decent frontcourt shooting options, too. Rudy Gay had a poor shooting year in 2017-18 with a league-wide perimeter shooting percentile of just 46.3. However, he’s hit eight of his 12 three-point tries in limited preseason minutes and isn’t coming off an Achilles tear this season. Davis Bertans and Pau Gasol will enjoy pick-and-pops with a penetrating threat like DeRozan. Dante Cunningham has had impressive moments as a shooter, highlighted by a perimeter shooting percentile of 84.7 in 2016-17.

Watch the spacing of San Antonio’s offense in these three DeRozan drive-and-kicks against the Hawks in preseason action.

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Last year, San Antonio had lots of lineups that included non-shooters Parker, Murray, Anderson and Aldridge. Many of those lineups had three of them together. But this season, only Aldridge will suit up for the Spurs.

The team will play a lot more lineups this season where four or five players are willing three-point shooters, as opposed to maybe two or three. DeRozan is the one healthy guard or wing who hesitates outside the arc, but he’ll be on the ball most of the time anyway.

San Antonio has the potential for a lot more moments like this in 2018-19 where the offense whips the ball around the three-point line against a collapsed defense.

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Will a New Approach Help?

We know the Spurs’ defense is going to considerably worse than it was last season. There are just too many stout defenders who left or are injured. Can San Antonio make up the lost ground on the other end? It’s going to take an offensive strategy that prioritizes spacing and hitting more threes.

Sure, Aldridge and DeRozan are reliable scorers in the mid-range and closer. But the team must realize that offenses without major long-distance punch hardly ever thrive anymore. Every player outside of those the two stars (and probably rim-running big Jakob Poeltl) needs to focus on honing his outside shot. The offense won’t be good if Aldridge and DeRozan have to repeatedly go one-on-one against a clogged defense.

Part of the responsibility falls on Popovich himself to change. The Spurs only shot 26.5 percent of their field goals from behind the arc in the preseason. That ranked 29th out of NBA teams, per NBA.com. But according to BBall Index’s team skill data, the team ranks 15th in the league in perimeter shooting skill based on projected 2018-19 minutes.

There’s no excuse for that discrepancy from a strategy standpoint. Pop will need to buy in to the relative strengths of his current team, and I think he will. He doesn’t have to like the three-point shot, but he will need to use it quite a bit with his current roster.

We’ll see if we get a hint of a new offensive style on Wednesday when the Spurs open their 2018-19 season against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Note: All statistics used are from BBall Index or NBA.com, unless otherwise indicated. Title graphic was designed by Aidan Lising.

Comments (1)

  1. Nothing But Netters

    I’d like to see a return to our 2014 ball movement ways. Those clips from preseason are pretty comforting despite the abysmal lineup. I’m not too optimistic though, this feels like a 40 win season +/- 5 games.

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