Ranking the Spurs’ potential playoff opponents by favorability

The Western Conference playoff standings are complete chaos with only a few weeks left in the regular season. The top eight teams in the West are separated by only seven games, and seeds three and eight are just 3.5 games apart.

The San Antonio Spurs’ current nine-game winning streak has thrust them into the confusion with a 42-29 record and the No. 5 seed. They haven’t technically clinched a playoff berth yet, but they will realistically finish anywhere between the third and eighth in the Western Conference.

Because of the uncertainty, the Spurs should be ready for a first-round playoff matchup against any other team in the West’s top eight. Let’s break down San Antonio’s strengths and weaknesses and then rank its potential playoff opponents by favorability.

The Spurs’ strengths and weaknesses

BBall Index’s talent data outlines the Spurs’ biggest strengths and weaknesses in this way:

With LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl, San Antonio is in good shape defending skilled offensive big men. They’ll also clean the defensive glass well.

The Spurs have a diverse offensive attack. They have four very good individual shot-makers in Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay and Derrick White. The rest of the roster provides a bunch of three-point shooting that the aforementioned quartet doesn’t specialize in. Guys like Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli, Davis Bertans and Poeltl thrive more on ball and player movement.

You can see from weaknesses No. 2 and 3 that defensive versatility is the chief concern with the Spurs. Aldridge and Poeltl are not great at switching onto guards. On the other end of things, Forbes, Mills and Belinelli are not going to bother opponents inside whatsoever.

White is a very impressive defender against perimeter players. However, the Spurs are lacking in defensive-minded players that are 6’6″-to-6’9″ with length and athleticism. Gay and Bertans are somewhat versatile, but they aren’t super quick. DeRozan is improving on defense, but he also struggles some with lateral quickness and doesn’t have the energy available to really focus on that end.

The Spurs also get a bonus against every team with the legendary Gregg Popovich as head coach.

Most favorable: Los Angeles Clippers (42-30, No. 8 seed)

This matchup is almost impossible. It would require excellent basketball down the stretch from both teams and with slip-ups from other squads in the 3-to-8 range.

Facing the Clippers in Round 1 would be a blessing for the Spurs compared to their other options. Los Angeles has the worst net rating among the West’s top eight squads Western Conference playoff hunt (plus-1.2). San Antonio would likely have home-court advantage due to possessing the slightly better record at the moment and probable possession of the conference record tiebreaker.

The Clippers have several strong players, but no superstar. Two stud offensive players (Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell) come off the bench for them, however, so the Spurs might need to shuffle their rotation a bit to better contain them.

Los Angeles’ two biggest weaknesses as a team are guard finishing (percentile of 9.7) and overall perimeter defense (12.9). The Clippers probably don’t have the wing size and athleticism to make the Spurs truly pay for playing guys like Forbes, Mills and Belinelli.

In Aldridge’s last three games against the Clippers, he’s averaged 31.7 points per game on a 70.6 true-shooting percentage I don’t see Ivica Zubac, Harrell or JaMychal Green giving him much trouble. In general, the Spurs’ roster also has a sizable edge in playoff experience.

Second-most favorable: Portland Trail Blazers (43-27, No. 4 seed)

San Antonio would also welcome a matchup against Portland, even if the Blazers have home-court advantage.

C.J. McCollum’s unfortunate knee strain does factor in here. If he’s at all limited, the Spurs can get away with having only one legitimately good perimeter defender (White). And Portland’s depth of key offensive options isn’t great. Damian Lillard, McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic all average more than 15 points per game, but no one else is above 10.

Portland is also missing that big, two-way wing or combo forward that can really make the Spurs pay on both ends. Of note, the Blazers have a weakness in wing perimeter shooting (9.7).

Nurkic can be a somewhat tough matchup for Aldridge. He’s beefy but still somewhat nimble to keep LMA from easily getting great position inside. However, Nurkic’s frequent troubles with foul trouble and turnovers can make him a bit unpredictable.

Portland’s recent playoff struggles with a similar core also factor into this placement.

Third-most favorable: Denver Nuggets (47-22, No. 2 seed)

The Nuggets having home-court advantage would be a huge deal in a potential Nuggets-Spurs series. Both of these squads play drastically better at home. Denver’s home/road win percentage split is 83.3/51.5 and San Antonio’s is 80.6/37.1.

Another strength for Denver in this matchup is the team’s shooting from a variety of players. Aside from Mason Plumlee, the Nuggets’ entire rotation is guys attempting more than two threes per game and making 30 to 42 percent of them. Will San Antonio be quick enough to cover the Nuggets’ shooters?

Moving past that, I think San Antonio matches up favorably with Denver. The Nuggets rely more on skill and teamwork rather than physical attributes in a way that’s reminiscent of several of the Spurs’ title teams. San Antonio struggles more against good length and athleticism than it does against savvy.

Nikola Jokic is Denver’s engine, and I think Aldridge and the Spurs’ defensive schemes can somewhat contain him. Jokic has averaged 8.3 assists and a very good true-shooting percentage of 69.4 in three games against the Spurs this season, but he’s averaged only 15.7 points, 7.7 rebounds with 4.7 turnovers per contest.

Denver has small perimeter players, which is helpful for the Spurs on both ends. The Nuggets’ offensive rebounding is their second-biggest strength (93.5), but San Antonio’s strength in big man defensive rebounding (87.1) can help keep that under control.

Fourth-most favorable: Oklahoma City Thunder (42-29, No. 6 seed)

The Thunder were a bit scarier to me earlier in the season. Now that they might not have home-court advantage against the Spurs and possess the league’s 29th-ranked offense since the All-Star break, that’s not so much the case.

But OKC is still dangerous. The Thunder roster has some of those versatile, athletic mid-sized players that the Spurs wish they had, like Paul George, Jerami Grant and Terrance Ferguson. Oklahoma City won’t hurt the Spurs so much with outside shooting, but its speed would be a problem for the Spurs on the fast break, especially if it’s able to force frequent turnovers.

With George likely limiting DeRozan’s impact with his excellent defense, White may have to step up as the key perimeter scorer and facilitator. In the Spurs’ double-overtime win against OKC this season, White did just that by scoring 23 points and dishing eight assists.

Thunder center Steven Adams has been a nuisance to the Spurs in their matchups over the past few years. Aldridge did score 56 points against him and the Thunder in that double-overtime game, but history tells us that Adams would still be tough in a seven-game series with his defense, offensive rebounding and general physicality inside.

Third-least favorable: Utah Jazz (41-29, No. 7 seed) 

This matchup is also pretty unlikely. However, the Jazz are a better team than Los Angeles and have a remarkably easy closing schedule. Utah’s next 10 opponents are all under .500 and it enters that stretch already with the West’s No. 3 net rating (plus-3.8).

A couple of Utah’s biggest strengths are defensive rebounding (96.8) and playmaking (87.1), while their biggest weaknesses are one-on-one play (3.2) and perimeter shooting (12.9). The Jazz aren’t super dynamic as slashers outside of Donovan Mitchell.

However, wide-open threes that were falling last season haven’t been dropping this year, particularly Joe Ingles and Kyle Korver. I would be worried about that changing in a seven-game series against a Spurs perimeter defense that has looked awfully slow at times.

On a positive note, the Jazz being a great defensive rebounding team might not be a huge deal since the Spurs usually opt to get back on defense anyway.

The biggest worry against playing the Jazz is Rudy Gobert, though. He makes Aldridge’s shot attempts very tough inside with insane length and instincts. He’s going to stay salty about Aldridge making the All-Star Game over him and will force him to do a lot of dirty work inside that could tire him out.

Gobert is also the league’s best rim protector in general and be a major deterrent to the slashing of DeRozan, White and Gay.

Second-least favorable: Houston Rockets (45-26, No. 3 seed)

Any notions that the Rockets aren’t really that good have been dispelled in the past few months. Houston is 34-12 since December 9 and is healthy at the right time. Remember, a very similar Rockets team went 65-17 last season and took the Warriors to seven games in the Western Conference Finals.

The Rockets also could be a tough matchup for the Spurs with their two dynamic guards. White will attempt to contain James Harden, but who’s going to cover Chris Paul? Clint Capela has been able to find success as a scorer and rebounder versus the Spurs this year, as his averages of 20 points and 17.3 rebounds per game against them demonstrate. Like Gobert, he’s another one of those big bodies who can help neutralize Aldridge.

And again, the Rockets will very likely have home-court advantage in this matchup. This could be key in giving Houston’s shooters confidence before the series moves to San Antonio.

Gregg Popovich has a 20-6 record against Mike D’Antoni in the postseason, so that’s one key thing going in the Spurs’ favor here. Pop will look to keep Harden off the free-throw line and make the rest of the team beat him.

Another thing is that the Spurs have going for them is a more varied offensive attack and a deeper roster. San Antonio can pull off the upset if fatigue or injury becomes an issue for any member the Rockets’ Big Three.

Least favorable: Golden State Warriors (48-22, No. 1 seed)

Despite the outcome of Monday’s game, the Spurs do not want a second straight first-round matchup with the Warriors. Golden State is again looking relatively mortal in the regular season, but that inconsistent defense is going to lock in once the playoffs start.

On paper, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins and Draymond Green might be the best quintet in NBA history. The Spurs don’t have the athleticism or size on defense or the offensive firepower to give a motivated Warriors team a serious run for their money.

Thankfully for the Spurs, they seem to be trending in the right direction to avoid a No. 7 or 8 seed and having to face the Dubs.

Note: All statistics are from NBA.com, unless otherwise indicated.

Graphic: Aidan Lising

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