On Tuesday, the Spurs led by double digits for much of the game looked ready to take a 2-0 lead on the road against the favored Nuggets in their first-round playoff series. Then Jamal Murray happened.

Murray scored 21 of his 24 points in a span of eight minutes and 58 seconds of fourth quarter game time, turning a five-point deficit into a nine-point lead. The Nuggets ended up winning by that same nine-point margin, 114-105.

Let’s discuss some relevant observations, questions and a prediction regarding the Spurs’ performance in Game 2.

3 Observations

The Spurs have a math problem to solve

The Spurs shot the least amount of threes in the NBA this season, but they still had the sixth-best offense. With DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge leading the offense, the team was able to sprinkle in efficient shooting here and there from the rest of the roster. The contributions of the role players presented a credible outside threat and provide spacing.

In the playoffs, that here-and-there shooting has been significantly reduced in favor of more usage for the two stars and Derrick White.

As a result, San Antonio is averaging 16.5 three-point attempts per game, much lower than its 25.3 in the regular season.

In Game 2, it felt like DeRozan, Aldridge and White were cooking. With 72 combined points, they were, to an extent. However, they combined to attempt only four threes, making one. San Antonio couldn’t put together that one big offensive flurry that could have buried the Nuggets.

The Nuggets’ three-point volume has also been on the low side so far in this series, at 26 attempts per game. But that’s still much higher than San Antonio, and Denver started to show more confidence in its shooting in Game 2.

The Spurs’ offensive ceiling will continue to be limited if such a big chunk of their usage keeps going to inside-the-arc shooters.

Denver’s fast break caused problems

In Game 1, the Spurs shut down the Nuggets in transition, winning the fast break point battle 2-0. That battle switched back in Denver’s favor on Tuesday. The Nuggets had 21 fast break points to the Spurs’ six, and all 21 came in the last three quarters.

Both of these teams prefer to play patient offense, but the Nuggets are probably a little more comfortable than the Spurs in the event of an up-and-down game. Will Barton, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray and Malik Beasley all can run the floor to either finish in transition or pop open jumpers. Jokic is an elite outlet passer, too.

The Spurs’ lazy passes and sluggish transition defense failed to keep this game’s pace under control after the first quarter, and the Nuggets fed off their crowd to take advantage.

The sky isn’t falling for the Spurs

Blowing a 19-point lead is tough. However, the Spurs still got a split on the road against the favored Nuggets. San Antonio has been basically under control for arguably seven of the eight quarters so far and Denver has looked nervous for long stretches of the first two games. Murray’s scoring bonanza really changed the complexion of this series.

Now, the Spurs go back home, where they were 33-8 this season. Denver was also 19-22 on the road. The outcome of this series is still very much in doubt.

The Spurs shouldn’t be ashamed or panicked based on Games 1 and 2. Even if they happen to lose the series, they’re going to be putting up a fight. For a very flawed seventh seed playing against a second seed, that would be a respectable outcome.

2 Questions

Will home-court advantage make the Spurs defense a bit more aggressive?

Of course, the Spurs roster itself can’t be satisfied with the mindset of merely wanting to put up a good fight. They’ll need to execute well and bring a bunch of energy in every game if they are going to win the series.

San Antonio did a pretty good job in this game fighting for rebounds and staying aggressive around the basket on offense. It’s time for some of that aggression to transfer to the defensive end.

The Spurs played conservative defense for the second straight game, going under screens and electing to wall off the paint rather than put more pressure on the ball. This defense has worked for much of the first two games, but the Nuggets’ shooters heated up after the first quarter of Game 2. San Antonio can’t keep banking on missed jumpers from Denver.

The Nuggets also committed just five turnovers, and the Spurs had only three steals. The turnover number tied the low mark for a Spurs opponent this year.

There’s a balance that the Spurs need to strike here. They don’t have the personnel to go nuts with their pressure, and Denver will dribble-drive and back-cut them to death if they do it all game. However, San Antonio’s defense has gotten a jolt of energy at home throughout the season, and that will need to be the case again.

Does the rotation need tweaking?

Earlier in this piece, we discussed the Spurs’ usage conundrum. San Antonio needs more balance offensively to defeat a superior Nuggets roster. If weak-defending shooting specialists like Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli are going to be playing key roles, they need to be getting up more than 16 combined shots to maximize their potential impact.

Another way to improve is optimizing minutes. One thing I can’t really understand is why Davis Bertans got 16 minutes. Among the Spurs’ nine-man rotation, Bertans was tops in Player Impact Plus-Minus this season (plus-2.28) this season. He fits well into basically any San Antonio lineup. Plus-minus data often seems to favor him, even in poor shooting nights like Tuesday (1-of-4 from the field and from three).

Rudy Gay also played 28 minutes in the midst of a brutal overall performance, taking potential minutes from Bertans, DeRozan (33 minutes) or White (32 minutes). He shot 2-of-9 from the field for five points and looked completely lethargic on both ends, especially in the second half.

In the last 16 minutes of this game, Gay went scoreless on 0-of-5 shooting with two turnovers and no assists. He wasn’t taking good shots on offense or bringing the proper effort on defense. Gay can be worthy of 28 minutes and even more, but he didn’t have it tonight.

The template for the Spurs’ best lineup, in my opinion, is still White-DeRozan-Bertans-Aldridge plus the hottest of the undersized shooters. Such lineups have seen just four total minutes in Games 1 and 2.

1 Prediction

Patty Mills is going to be an X-factor in Game 3

Mills is always an X-factor for the Spurs. The streaky shooter averaged 10.2 points per game on 46.8/45.2/85.7 shooting splits in Spurs wins this season. His numbers dropped to 8.8 points per game on 37.2/31.6/84.6 shooting splits in losses.

Gregg Popovich has called Mills the team’s spiritual leader, per Ben Mallis of The Pick and Roll. The Spurs need to find more offensive balance and more outside scoring punch in Game 3, and the team’s longest-tenured player is an ideal candidate to provide both.

If Mills brings the energy and hits some big shots, it’s going to spark his teammates and the AT&T Center faithful. But if he continues to shoot very little and basically fade into the background, the squad may have trouble finding the drive to defeat the emboldened Nuggets.

Note: All statistics are from NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.

Photo credit: Garrett Ellwood // Getty Images