Shelvin Mack is Better Than Your Backup Point Guard

Shelvin Mack is one of several reasons for Grizzlies fans to be thankful this time of year. He is currently providing some of the best backup point guard minutes in the league. This is a significant development for a team that had Mario Chalmers, Andrew Harrison, and Kobi Simmons play substantial minutes at the one last year in Mike Conley’s absence. Mack’s base salary this season is tied for 63rd among point guards. Let’s examine how much value he is returning for Memphis.

Career Best Efficiency

Shelvin Mack, among point guards, is currently 17th in RPM, and 20th in RPM wins. Both marks are the best of any backup point guard in the league. (Both James Harden and Chris Paul are considered point guards by RPM, so the duo is higher than Mike Conley and Mack, but let’s get serious). The rankings are driven by his ORPM, also 17th among all point guards, and better than any backup.

The main driver of his high offensive impact is his efficiency thus far. Mack is posting career bests in both eFG% and true shooting percentage through the first 17 games. Given this information it will come as no surprise that Mack is also posting the best FG% and 3P% of his career as well.

Among all guards taking at least six field goal attempts per game, and 1.5 three-point attempts per game, Mack is 12th in eFG%. Given the same criteria Mack is 20th among all guards in true shooting percentage.

There is hope the efficiency is sustainable. 1.5 of Mack’s 2.8 three-point attempts per game are of the catch and shoot variety. Mack is canning 50% of his catch and shoot threes this season. It’s a tiny sample size, but more than half his attempts from range are the type of shot you want. His remaining 1.3 attempts per game are pull ups, and he is shooting 40.9% on those attempts.

More Smart Shot Selection

Shelvin Mack taking smart threes is indicative of his larger shot profile. Mack is taking 66.2% of his field goal attempts either from distance or at the rim. 30.1% of his shots are coming within three feet of the basket, which is the second highest rate of his career. This is an area where he is underperforming, as he is shooting 57.5% at the rim, below his career average of 62.7%. Should this number rise it can offset some lost efficiency if his 3P% dips.

Mack has ditched mid-range shots at all three levels for a Moreyball shot profile. Here is Mack’s field goal attempts by distance this season compared to his career norms.

% Of FGA by Distance

 

2018-19

Career Average

0-3’

30.1% 23.7%

3-10’

16.5% 18.7%
10-16’ 6.8%

10.5%

16’- <3P 10.5%

13.6%

3P 36.1%

33.6%

All of this has helped Mack climb into the 86th percentile of CPOE.

One More Thing

Shelvin Mack is currently getting to the line at his second best career rate. He is ~60 percentage points below his career average from the free throw line this season. Should this tick back up Mack has a real chance to post the most efficient scoring season of his career.

Mack Doesn’t Care About Your YouTube Scouting

There is nothing flashy about Mack’s game this year. He isn’t in there to make plays as much as he is to keep the offense moving. Mack’s usage rate is 17.8%, a significant drop from Conley’s 28.0%. It makes sense Mack wouldn’t have as much of a burden as Conley, but the large drop off suggests a completely different role.

It’s not surprising Shelvin Mack is averaging the 3rd most passes on the Grizzlies behind Conley and Marc Gasol. But it is interesting that only Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging more potential assists per game among backup point guards.

No one will be mistaking Mack for prime White Chocolate anytime soon. The key to Mack’s effectiveness as a passer is that he is on time and on target.

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Mack has consistently been hitting cutters and shooters with a high level of accuracy this season. His passes seemingly always hit his receiver right in the hands, allowing his teammate to immediately shoot, whether around the basket or spotting up.

Impacting the Defense

Memphis is leading the league in forcing turnovers, and Mack is getting in on the fun. Shelvin Mack is posting the second highest steal rate of his career, which is contributing to his standing in the 73rd percentile of DPOE.

The Grizzlies have been closing games with a lineup of Conley, Gasol, Mack, Kyle Anderson, and Garrett Temple. In 59 minutes that five man combination is allowing a defensive net rating of 93.7, which would easily be the best mark in the league.

Saying Mack has been the best backup point guard in the league this season would be a bold definitive statement. He is certainly in the conversation, and the data tells us he has been excellent in his role.

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