Last year was a tale of two halves for Utah Jazz newcomer Ricky Rubio. On a new team for the first time in his career, the Spanish point guard needed time to adjust to Quin Snyder’s system. Fortunately, Quin’s patience paid off and Rubio more than made up for the early season struggles.
Before Utah’s end of season tear, Ricky was averaging 11.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and shooting and abysmal 38% from the field and 29% from three. Many Jazz fans were calling for changes. Then a game winning three on the road in Toronto really got him going. From that point on he averaged 16 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and shot 46% from the field and 43.8% from 3. Ricky Rubio shooting nearly 44% from three!? He looked like an entirely different player and became a weapon in Utah’s offense. This change culminated in a triple double in the first round of the playoffs against Mr. Triple Double himself Russell Westbrook.
The expectations were high with Rubio getting a full offseason to work on his game and digest Coach Snyder’s system. But the start has been much the same 7 games into the season. He’s struggling to find his shot and looks lost about his role in the offense. After averaging nearly 12 shot attempts during the second half of last season, he’s down to just 8.7 attempts per game this year.
Where is the confidence? Why the resistance to shoot? What is different this year from last?
An emphasis of Quin Snyder’s for this season was shooting more three pointers. As the NBA has adapted to a money-ball mentality, Snyder is right there with the rest of the modern coaches. Looking at Utah’s shot chart will show you exactly what I mean.
Shot chart via Statmuse.com
Quin is trying to eliminate midrange shots from Utah’s offense. Their goal is is to manufacture layups and threes as often as possible. Utah has increased their three point shooting by two per game so far this season, up to 31.6 attempts per game. The Jazz are even shooting 1% better from three with this increase in attempts. They have also increased their field goal attempts within 5 feet of the rim from 28.4 to 34.4. These changes improved Utah’s offensive rating from 107.2 to to 110.8 through 7 games.
Kudos to Quin Snyder for squeezing out so much offense out his roster. According to Basketball Index’s player talent grades, Utah ranks as the 29th best perimeter shooting team. At 13th overall in finishing, he’s got them performing well in that regard as well. There’s a reason he was the runner up for Coach of the Year last season.
Where does that leave Ricky Rubio?
Well, unfortunately neither of these points of emphasis are true strengths of Ricky Rubio. Shooting a career high 35.2% from three last year was promising, but 35% is still 35%. He’s also never been known for his finishes around the rim as a career 49% shooter within 3 feet of the rim. His talent grades tell the same story: among point guards with at least 1,000 minutes last year, he grades in the 35th percentile for perimeter shooting and the 22nd percentile for finishing.
Surprisingly Ricky has been one of the better pull up midrange shooting guards since he entered the league. This isn’t Utah’s offense, however, so Rubio is left again rediscovering his place. With Dante Exum back and healthy playing the best ball of his career, Quin Snyder might not be as patient in round 2 of the Ricky Rubio experience.
Is Rubio the ideal description of a modern NBA point guard? Not necessarily no. Is he off to a very good start in 2018-2019? Not necessarily no. Does that mean the Utah Jazz should be hitting the panic button 7 games into the season? Of course not. His shot distribution tells you he is buying what Quin Snyder is selling.
Shot distribution via basketball-reference.com
He has the highest 3 point rate of his career so far and he’s done everything asked of him during his time in Utah. Ricky was also too important to Utah’s success last season. When Rubio was good, the Jazz were great. A 7 game sample size isn’t enough to make sweeping changes in Quin Snyder’s rotation. Snyder’s patience with Rubio paid off last season, and I’m confident he’ll manage the situation just as successfully this time around.
This absolutely could be more than just a slow start for Ricky Rubio. His shooting troubles could catch up to him for good in his 8th NBA season. I just don’t think that’s the case. Not yet anyways. At some point Rubio will get it going and Jazz fans will realize their worries were unnecessary at the beginning of the season, just like they were last year.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of BBall-Index.com, NBA.com, or Basketball-Reference.com.
Thanks to Huzaifa Patel (@HuzaifaPatel95) for the statistical assistance and Riley Giss (@rgiss11) for the featured image.
