People love to talk about how certain teams had a cakewalk on their way to a title and how other teams had to journey to Mordor. It consumes hours of debate shows and fills up the phone lines for sports radio segments. These arguments are often loud, spoken word manifestos delivered by shock jocks looking to fill air time. The biggest problem with these arguments is that they are completely emotional with little evidence backing them up. This gave me the idea to look through the Basketball Index database for something more concrete. What I came up with was to use regular season LEBRON and weight it by actual minutes played by opponents in each round of a champions title run (LEBRON is Basketball Index’s all-in-one metric that estimates a player’s value per 100 possessions). Each team faced was then given a difficulty score, and then all four opponents faced in any given run were added together, creating a final score. The total value was used to rank how difficult each run was. Without further ado, here are the results:

 

10. 2020 Lakers

Opponents: Blazers, Rockets, Nuggets, Heat

Playoff Record: 16-5

This was the famous bubble run where AD ascended to something more than a mortal and Lebron let out one last mighty roar, ending his 10-year stranglehold as the best player in the league. The Lakers easily bested a Damian Lillard led Blazers team, ended the Harden and Westbrook “micro ball” experiment in Houston, and were too much for a very talented but very young up-and-coming Nuggets squad. The same Nuggets core won a ring in 2023 with some more seasoning and the addition of Aaron Gordon. The Lakers met a banged-up Heat team in the finals and took care of business without much strain. Their path was considerably easier than any other champion over the last decade and they were in cruise control for the entirety of the run.

 

9. 2024 Celtics

Opponents, Heat, Cavs, Pacers, Mavericks

Playoff Record: 16-3

The 2024 Celtics were the inspiration for this article because of their extreme injury luck. No Jimmy Butler vs the Heat, against Cleveland Donovan Mitchell missed two of the five games while Jarrett Allen missed the entire series, and Tyrese Haliburton, the straw that stirs the drink in Indy, missed two of their four games. In the finals, all of Dallas’ key players were on the floor, but Luka’s health was a popular topic of debate. All of that added up to the second easiest title path of the last decade. To be fair, Boston was not at full strength themselves, Kristaps Porzingis missed a large chunk of the postseason and was coming off arguably the best regular season of his career. When it came to on-the-court results they dominated, only dropping 3 games over their entire playoff run.

 

8. 2017 Warriors

Opponents: Blazers, Jazz, Spurs, Cavs

Playoff Record: 16-1

This was the first season of the super team version of the Warriors after they added Kevin Durant. They swept the Dame/McCollum Blazers, the Gordon Hayward/Gobert Jazz, and the Spurs after Kawhi Leonard got Zaza Pachulia’ed in game one. Kawhi’s injury greatly reduced the difficulty grade of the Warrior’s run. They finished up their run beating a quality Finals team in the Cavs. While they had one of the easier runs of the decade their talent was overwhelming. If the aliens from Space Jam arrived in 2017, Vegas would have had them at +250 vs Golden State.

 

7. 2023 Nuggets

Opponents: Timberwolves, Suns, Lakers, Heat

Playoff Record: 16-4

They started their run easily taking care of a baby-faced Anthony Edwards who was without two key role players in Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid. Next, they topped a bunch of talented coworkers in the form of the Suns. This was the year Phoenix traded for Durant mid-season and he played almost zero games with the team before the playoffs due to injury. Deandre Ayton was on the court, but it seemed like a contractual obligation more than anything. CP3 was running on whatever less than fumes is and missed four of the six games in the series. They swept a talented Lakers team in the Conference Finals thanks to Jamal Murray going Super Saiyan 3 and blowing the Lakers back out (something he would do again in the future). In the finals, they took care of a fairly weak Heat team without much trouble. This was a key building block in Jokic’s legacy regardless of the strength of opponent. 

 

6. 2015 Warriors

Opponents: Pelicans, Grizzlies, Rockets, Cavs

Playoff Record: 16-5

We didn’t know it at the time, but this was the beginning of one of the greatest dynasties in the history of the NBA. They swept the Pels in the first round and then locked horns with the “Grit and Grind” Grizzlies. The series was locked at 2-2 before the Warriors turned on the after-burners to take the next two. In the conference finals, they topped the talented Harden/Howard Rockets before capturing a ring versus a depleted Cavaliers team. Kevin Love was out and Kyrie only appeared in one game. Because of these injuries, the 2015 Cavs had the lowest grade of any Finals opponent in the model.

 

5. 2016 Cavaliers 

Opponents: Pistons, Hawks, Raptors, Warriors

Playoff Record: 16-5

The Cavs 4-0’ed the Pistons and the Hawks back to back to start their postseason run, Then took care of business vs a solid Lowry/DeRozan led Raptors team. Their road to the finals was on the lighter side difficulty-wise, but then they had to slay goliath. A 73-9 Juggernaut, defending champs, captained by the reigning back-to-back MVP. You know the rest of the story. Surprisingly, The Warriors boasted the second-toughest score out of any opponent in the finals and not the first. They likely missed out on the top spot because Draymond famously missed a game due to suspension and Andrew Bogut missed a chunk of time due to injury.

 

4. 2018 Warriors

Opponents: Spurs, Pelicans, Rockets, Cavs

Playoff Record: 16-5

The 18 Warriors had one of the stranger runs in terms of opponent quality over the last decade. They started by making quick work of a competent LaMarcus Aldridge led Spurs team. They were a top 3 first-round team in terms of opponent strength in the model. In the second round they faced the Pelicans the year Demarcus Cousins tore his Achilles. That injury made the Pelicans the weakest opponent faced by a title team in the second round over the last ten years by a wide margin. Next game the analytics juggernaut in the form of the CP3/Harden Rockets. They were the third strongest opponent faced in the model including Finals teams. They went on to sweep the Lebron/Love Cavaliers who featured a watered-down supporting cast compared to previous seasons. Very up and down. Sometimes it shakes out this way: where the Conference Finals are much more difficult than the actual Finals.

 

3. 2021 Bucks

Opponents: Heat, Nets, Hawks, Suns

Playoff Record: 16-7

This Bucks team had an odd route to a championship. They played by far the best first round team of the decade in the Butler/Bam Heat. After that, they played the strongest second round team of the decade in the Nets, even with Kyrie and Harden battling injuries. They only appeared in four of the seven games each. KD picked up the slack and went berserk, averaging 35.4 points a game in that series. Game seven was a nail-biter where KD famously had his foot on the line on the would-be game-winner, instead pushing the game to overtime. Spoiler: the Bucks won. The version of Atlanta they played in the Conference Finals was pretty weak, the mental math is easier if you just swap the Heat and Hawks placement in that year’s bracket. The Bucks played a strong and most importantly healthy Suns team in the finals where they fell behind 0-2 before Giannis went supernova. This was a daunting run that shows in Milwaukee’s record, dropping 7 games in total.

 

2. 2022 Warriors

Opponents: Nuggets, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Celtics 

Playoff Record: 16-6

The 22 Warriors run was a statement for Steph Curry’s legacy. They were no longer a super team, KD was long gone, and Klay had recently come back after missing two years due to injury. As far as first round teams go, it’s not often you face the MVP, and while Jokic had a great series, missing Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. made the series fairly easy for Golden State.  Next, they topped the young core of Ja, Bane and JJJ in Memphis and nullified Luka’s magic in the Conference Finals. All three matchups provided a quality opponent relative to their round. In the Finals, they faced an incredibly deep Boston team. They had the highest opponent score in the Finals in the model. Jordan Poole and Otto Porter Jr. had fantastic scoring output in limited minutes to go along with Steph Curry’s total domination of the second half of the series.

 

1. 2019 Raptors

Opponents: Magic, 76ers, Bucks, Warriors

Playoff Record: 16-8

It’s funny the Raptors title always comes with an asterisk from fans. If KD didn’t get hurt… What’s funny about that is even with KD getting injured and barely playing in the finals they still had by far the toughest road to a ring. The Raptors beat a solid first-round team in the Magic 4-1 before going seven games versus a very strong 76ers team. This was one of the most memorable series of the last decade that ended with an all-time moment. The infamous Kawhi buzzer beater. In the Conference Finals, they fell down 0-2 against a stacked Buck’s team that featured Giannis in his first MVP season. The Raptors went on to win the next four and faced the daunting Warriors in the Finals. Obviously KD missing almost the entire series hurt the Warrior’s score in the model, along with Klay going down at the end of game 6. But even so, they were a middle-of-the-pack Finals team in terms of opponent strength. Kawhi needs to be given more credit for leading his team to a title vs the toughest opponents. 

This article is meant to help provide context to historical debates and bring a little bit of evidence to the often emotional arguments that come with historical arguments. To win a title in any year is a herculean task, but the data is pretty clear that some runs are more difficult than others.

A big thank you to @knarsu and @Melverkk_ (on Twitter). Without them, I wouldn’t have been able to complete this project.

Let me know on Twitter why this is all wrong @taylormetrics