Josh Hart is a quality role player for the Los Angeles Lakers. Sometimes, his name comes up in trade rumors. But, what are the Lakers actually giving up?
Player projection is difficult to do. Some players just pick up certain skills and skill combinations much quicker than others. Prior to his rookie year, Josh Hart worked on adding range to his 3-point shot and was one of the best spot up shooters for the Lakers.This season, he added 3-point shooting ability off of screens. While he’s in the middle of a shooting slump right now, he has clearly shown the work ethic to improve his game and continually get better.
But what may be considered extremes of his projected upside? Two players come to mind; Jimmy Butler and Allen Crabbe. While it sounds a bit absurd to compare Jimmy Butler to Josh Hart, it’s actually a credit to just how far Jimmy Butler’s talent has developed since he entered the league. Allen Crabbe was known as a shooter entering his draft and carried that talent into his major contract extension.
A look at the BBall Index Player Grades reflect his strong rookie campaign and his recent shooting slump affecting the season:
His shooting slump through the month of January isn’t a clear reflection of his season.
From October to January, Josh Hart averaged:
His shooting percentages have declined since he had more game starts. I’d expect that eventually, he would develop some consistency. In fact, he has more game starts than Jimmy Butler and Allen Crabbe at age 23.
A quick look at Basketball Reference between all three players at age 23 shows:
Things to note:
- Jimmy Butler has an excellent Free Throw Rate at 45.5 percent
- Josh Hart’s advanced numbers compare to Jimmy Butler’s in terms of Total Rebounding Percentage, Assist Rate, Steal Rate, Block Rate, and Usage
- Josh Hart has near equal Free Throw Rate to Allen Crabbe
Going off the advanced numbers, it seems fair to project Josh Hart’s effectiveness as a split between Jimmy Butler and Allen Crabbe. Player development is unpredictable, and we’ll take a quick look at how Butler and Crabbe developed from age 23 to age 25.
First, Allen Crabbe:
Then Jimmy Butler:
While Allen Crabbe has shown solid progress in terms of his shooting and rebounding, it was enough to earn him a great contract extension.
Jimmy Butler, on the other hand, had outlier development with his field goal shooting, 3-point shooting, and free throw rate, with slight bumps in rebounding and assists. His shooting ability lines up more with Josh Hart’s with 2-point shooting percentages and 3-point ability with volume.
If Josh Hart has a trajectory in the middle of both guys, that makes for a high quality role player and a positive plus/minus NBA level starter.
That’s a hell of a player.
