The Perimeter Shooting Outlook for Ben Simmons

The talent grades we’ve unveiled at BBall Index have opened up several doors for analysis. We can now see which players are put in the best and worst positions to succeed, evaluate how coaches rate in that arena, and now better predict how players will grow or decline in specific skill sets.

Today we’ll cover the new ability to measure expected growth in each talent category (Perimeter Shooting, One on One, Interior Defense, etc.) for players as they progress through their careers, based on age and position.

Growth differs for each skill set, and the expected age and position of a player will impact those predictions. Younger players will grow the most, with mid-career aged players having their growth flatten out, and older players declining. Those general principles will hold true for every category, but the specific ages and rates of growth/decline will change for each, and for each position (Guards/Wings/Bigs).

Perimeter Shooting Growth

Let’s talk specifically about Perimeter Shooting. It’s become a vital component of the modern game, with the ability to stretch the court enabling easier post offense, open cutting and driving lanes, and forcing the defense to play pick and roll coverages they otherwise wouldn’t. Having shooters on the floor is key, so understanding what to expect when it comes to the growth of Perimeter Shooting ability is an important angle to analyze when looking at young players and draft prospects.

In particular, we can use this information to better predict how players like Ben Simmons, De’Aaron Fox, and Lonzo Ball will progress as shooters throughout their careers.

Guards/Wings/Bigs Grow at Different Rates

For Bigs, shooting is a skill that is refined over time. All the way from ages 19-34, players show progression in this regard. The average jump over that span is 33 total percentile points in their Perimeter Shooting grade. About half of the growth happens from ages 19-23, and the growth tapers off as players age. Age 35 is the turning point where shooting ability starts a slow decline.

For Wings, shooting shows similar growth but begins decline sooner, with average growth from 19-27 years old being 19 total percentile points and age 28 marking the turning point to decline. Unlike with Bigs, Wings generally face a steeper regression of their shooting ability. By age 34, shooting typically drops to the point it was at age 19.

Guards are different. For this skill specifically, you generally either come into the league with it or you don’t. The average growth period is from 22-28 years old, but the degree of improvement is only 5.6 percentile points on average over that entire span of time. And that 19-21 range that is so fruitful for growth in other skill areas sees a slightly negative plateau for Perimeter Shooting for Guards.

With the film and a data we have available, we can do a deeper analysis to set our expectations for Ben Simmons, De’Aaron Fox, and Lonzo Ball. Today I’ll share that analysis on Simmons. An article on Fox and Ball’s shooting expectations will follow in the new few days.

Ben Simmons – “F” Perimeter Shooting in 2017-18

Perhaps no player has received more attention around their perimeter shooting than the Philadelphia 76ers’ Ben Simmons. A point guard with unique guard skills for his size, the tantalizing prospect out of LSU impressively won rookie of the year in 2017-18 despite making zero three pointers and being an 11th percentile overall jump shooter by his points per possession.

Add a jumper and Simmons may become a monster. No longer could teams take advantage of his dearth of shooting on-ball by going under screens, knowing he couldn’t take advantage by shooting the open pull up 3. Nor could defenses use his lack of shooting as a green light to help off of him off-ball and make life difficult for the Sixers other players.

Here are Ben Simmons‘ talent grades from 2017-18:

Add a jumper to that profile and you’re likely looking at increased One on One abilities as well, completely unlocking Simmons on the offensive end of the court.

That idea of a future Ben Simmons is enthralling, but how likely is it to happen?

The Data on Simmons

As a guard, we know from above that Simmons’ trajectory for shooting growth isn’t high. Remember from above, Guards see only a 5.6% total increase on average in Perimeter Shooting percentile from ages 22-28.

Based on that, Ben is projected to maintain F level status as a Perimeter Shooter for the next three seasons. If we want to consider him a Wing or a Big, that improves the projected outcome to a D- by year 3.

Those projections are the average projected outcome, meaning there’s certainly room for better (or worse) outcomes.

Simmons is in a unique position, being the only guard in our talent grade database who will have played two or more years in a row of 500+ minutes with an F starting grade. Zero guards have done it. If you’re a guard and can’t shoot at all, you don’t play. Simmons’ ability to trail blaze as the first of this breed of player just speaks to how talented Simmons is elsewhere on the court.

Expanding to look at Wings and Bigs, there have been 67 players in our database meeting that 500+ minute and F starting level filter. And 25 meet that filter and were also under the age of 25 on average in those seasons).

Of those 67 players starting at Simmons’ shooting level:

  • 84% never reached D level shooting (80% among Ben’s age group of 25)
  • 91% never reached C level shooting (92% for Ben’s age group)
  • 97% never reached B level shooting (96% for Ben’s age group)
  • 99% never reached A level shooting (none in Ben’s age group)

That’s an incredibly bleak outlook. Based on the history of data available, there’s a very good chance Ben Simmons’ Perimeter Shooting grade over the next five seasons doesn’t surpass Lonzo Ball’s Perimeter Shooting grade from last season (a C). We certainly can’t rule out Simmons becoming an average or better perimeter shooter, but it should not be the expectation.

Who are those few outliers who reached the B and A levels? I’ll reveal them in the piece to follow this, which will analyze the shooting growth potential of Lonzo Ball and De’Aaron Fox.

Simmons’ Jumper on Film

I consulted with BBall Index shot form expert Dylan Ward (@HoopInDetail on Twitter) for a film review of Simmons’ shooting form (along with Fox and Ball). I’ve reformatted and paraphrased his analysis below:

Simmons’ main issue is his outward/flailing elbow. It is egregious, and he won’t be a better shooter until that gets much better.

Free Throws

Last year Simmons started tucking his thumb on free throws, a highly unusual technique. This is done in an effort to improve the ball’s rotation by ensuring the ball’s positioning in Ben’s hand and release is off of his three middle fingers. You can see this thumb tucking here. That tactic has stopped this season.

This year, Simmons has chosen to have big Shaq-like pause, where he brings the ball near his shooting pocket, and with no rhythm/dip, he then begins his stroke. You can see that pause here.

This removal of all rhythm has created a smaller path the stroke has to take (with less dip), allowing Simmons to focus more on keeping his elbow in. That elbow positioning has improved somewhat, but at the heavy cost of removing rhythm from the shot.

One continuing problem from last season to this one is Simmons’ wrist being pre-flexed. What does this mean? If you stick your hand straight up in the air, your wrist isn’t flexed. You would flex your wrist by pulling it back so that your palm is facing the sky.

Simmons is shooting his free throws with that wrist already cocked back, removing even more rhythm from his shot.

Along with his pre-flexed wrist removing the rhythm created by bending his wrist back, the pause Ben is taking removing the rhythm of a dip has left Simmons’ free throws ridiculously bereft of rhythm, resulting in results no better than last year’s form (so far).

Dylan shared that he does not expect much improvement at all in Simmons’ free throw shooting percentage this season.

Jump Shooting

The following analysis on Simmons’ jumpers is based on his mid-range shots, since there’s really no tape of him taking 3s in-game.

Simmons likes to hang in the air for quite a while, almost shooting on the way down from his jump. This is partially due to over-aiming, part over-calculating / fear, and in-part due to twist and align his shooting shoulder to the rim.

At the end of the day, Simmons’ range will never be greater than 16 feet due to his elbow issue. His elbow flailing out is a massive hinderance on his accuracy, with the issue magnifying as he shoots further from the rim.

And he has to start taking more to get comfortable. Taking hundreds in practice will be a majority of that growth. The final comfort and trust will come in-game, but only after that first big step is taken.

Dylan shared that he does not have much faith in improvement from Simmons jump shot this year. We have seen some changes in Simmons‘ form, but haven’t seen an improved jump shot form.

Tying It All Together

Based on our database’s history, it’s unlikely Simmons is able to significantly improve his jump shooting. In all likelihood, he’ll be an F to D level shooter over at least the next 3-5 years. The data would give players in Simmons’ position less than a 10% chance of improving from his F level Perimeter Shooting grade to a C or better.

Based on Simmons’ actual jump shot form, including changes he’s made this offseason, we aren’t left with evidence suggesting improvement is on its way. Simmons has major issues with his elbow in both his free throw shot and his normal jumper. Efforts to improve that problem haven’t been fruitful with live jumpers, and marginal improvement with his elbow at the free throw line has come at the cost of what little rhythm existed in a shot already including a pre-flexed wrist.

You can still hope for improvement, and there can always be statistical outliers, but that improvement won’t come before we see further changes to Simmons’ shot form. And that’ll likely take either a change in mindset from Simmons’ current shooting coach(es) or an outright change in shooting coach(es). Once we have that film, we’ll know when improvement is on its way.

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