Model Record

We’ve worked hard to develop basketball models that work for both the college and professional game. Utilizing tracking data, adjustments to cancel out noise in the numbers to produce more predictive stats, and statistical analysis of scheme specific to matchups, we have two models that have proven to be successful separately. But when they agree with each other is when the great results come.

During use of live projections on models we’ve seen the following results in past seasons:

  • NBA ATS: 53.2% pre-ASB and 53.8% post-ASB vs closing spreads for the 2018-19 season when models agreed.
  • NBA O/U: 58.8% accuracy on games where models agreed and had at least a 3-point minimum distance from the closing total.
  • NCAA ATS: 99th percentile March Madness Bracket in 2018, 67% ATS the last two seasons combined during March Madness vs closing spreads.
  • WNBA ATS: 62.5% ATS vs close in 2018 (not counting games including eliminated/tanking teams), 61.4% ATS vs close in 2019. Both with models agreeing on games.

All “Vegas” lines/totals used are from Pinnacle.