Model Record

We’ve worked hard to develop basketball models that work for both the college and professional game. Utilizing tracking data, adjustments to cancel out noise in the numbers to produce more predictive stats, and statistical analysis of scheme specific to matchups, we have two models that have proven to be successful separately. But when they agree with each other is when the great results come.

We’ve back tested each model to increase the sample sizes to produce results displayed below. During live testing:

  • NBA ATS: 56.2% ATS vs open, 59.5% ATS with a 2 point difference between our projections and the opening spread pre-ASB, 53.2% vs closing spreads pre-ASB and 53.8% post-ASB
  • NBA O/U: 56.7% (3 point minimum difference between projections and Vegas total) vs opening totals pre-ASB, 54.3% post-ASB vs opening totals
  • NCAA ATS: 99th percentile March Madness Bracket in 2018, 67% ATS the last two seasons combined during March Madness
  • WNBA ATS: 62.5% ATS vs close in 2018 (not counting games including eliminated/tanking teams), 57.9% ATS vs close in 2019 (as of 7/3/19)
  • WNBA O/U: 64.6% O/U vs close in 2019 (first year of tracking)

All “Vegas” lines/totals used are from Pinnacle.