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Model Record

We’ve worked hard to develop basketball models that work for both the college and professional game. Utilizing tracking data, adjustments to cancel out noise in the numbers to produce more predictive stats, and statistical analysis of scheme specific to matchups, we have two models that have proven to be successful separately. But when they agree with each other is when the great results come.

We’ve back tested each model to increase the sample sizes to produce results displayed below. During live testing:

  • NBA: 59.5% ATS (pre-ASB to eliminate tanking teams)
  • NCAA: 99th percentile March Madness Bracket
  • WNBA: 62.5% ATS (not counting games including eliminated/tanking teams)

Below are full results for 1 season (WNBA and NCAA) and 2 seasons (NBA) of data. Games post-ASB for the NBA aren’t counted (generally not a period of time gamblers will be on games due to tanking), games involving eliminated teams aren’t counted for the WNBA results (again, tanking), and all ATS results are shown for when the models are 2+ points from the spread.

NBA Models – 2018 Season

Straight Up

Against the Spread

Model W L % Units ROI
POE 329 319 50.8% -19.9 -3.07%
PIPM 342 276 55.3% 34.9 5.65%
Agree 203 165 55.2% 19.5 5.31%