Since the 2010’s, five-man lineup data has become very popular. Being able to break down the net, offensive, and defensive ratings of any lineup has led to new insights. Finally, there was something to cite when a coach’s rotations were brought into question.

However, you do need to be careful with how you use lineup data. Sample size is a massive issue with this stat. Lineups need to play hundreds of minutes together to become trustworthy. This becomes obvious when someone online posts a Bucks lineup with a +33 net rating that has only played 68 minutes together. While they have played well, it’s virtually impossible for them to continue playing at that pace. For reference, the 2017 Warriors most played lineup posted a +24.9 net rating in 497 minutes. That lineup consisted of KD, Steph, Klay, Draymond, and Zaza Pachulia.

At Basketball Index, we wanted to come up with a better way to look at lineup data. Krishna Narsu, our head of R&D, did extensive testing and found that it took hundreds of minutes for a lineup to stabilize. By stabilizing, I mean the data becomes predictive of future results.

From there, we got to work on our stable lineup app. Any lineup used starts with a few hundred minutes of league-average results, and then their actual play is added to that. The more a lineup plays well, the further it can pull away from average. The same goes for playing poorly.

Stabilized lineups let you compare lineups with drastically different minutes played without having to do some sort of weighting in your head. As of this writing, the top two Stable Lineups in the league belong to the Bucks and the Nuggets.

 

Bucks:

PG: Ryan Rollins

SG: AJ Green

SF: Kyle Kuzma

PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo

C: Myles Turner

Minutes Played: 68
Raw Net Rating: +33.1
Stable Net Rating: +7.6

 

Nuggets:

PG: Jamal Murray

SG: Peyton Watson

SF: Cameron Johnson

PF: Spencer Jones

C: Nikola Jokic

Minutes Played: 171
Raw Net Rating: +20.7
Stable Net Rating: +7.5

You can see that the Nuggets’ raw net rating is much lower than Milwaukee’s, but they have more than twice as many minutes played. This pulls them further away from the stabilization, to the point where their stable net ratings are almost identical.

 

Next time you want to use lineup data, I suggest using Basketball Index’s free Stable Lineup App.