What Is Lonzo Ball’s Offensive Upside?

First, the thing about player comparisons…

Player comparisons are very difficult to do. Every player is a person, and each person is different. Each of them have their own skill sets, mental approaches, methods of learning, basketball background, systems played in, personal background, athletic traits, etc. There are far too many variables. But, what we’re looking for here is an optimistic path to what improvement could (speculatively) look like if everything went right.

Sound good? Good.

We watch Lonzo Ball and see his current struggles offensively. His 3-point shot is either on or off. He doesn’t have the most diverse layup package, and converting at a decent rate would be a great goal to achieve.

We’ve seen him attack the basket repeatedly, whether his number is called or not. Some finishes he gets, others, he doesn’t. But we all want him to attack because that’s a positive step in his offensive development.

So, what upside seems reasonable to achieve? If I were to vastly oversimplify his offensive skill set, we’ve seen that Lonzo is generally a spot up shooter, a straight line driver, but high level passer on the offensive end. What kind of player had those kinds of qualities?

Well, bare with me on this one because they’re very different athletically and size-wise but, Scottie Pippen had those kinds of qualities.

Shooting

One of the hardest things to do is comparison by age, let alone style of play by decade. In this example, I will use Lonzo’s current season against Scottie’s rookie year, as they’re closest by age.

There were some similarities I did not expect.

1. 1. The two-point percentage of Lonzo Ball is 46.7 percent. The two-point percentage of Scottie Pippen is 47.5 percent.
   2. Lonzo’s effective field goal percent is 47.5 vs. Scottie at 46.6.
   3. They shot similar free throw percentages, Lonzo’s 55.6 percent to Scottie’s 57.6 percent.
   4. Within 3′ from the hoop, Lonzo is finishing at a 61.5 percent. Scottie? 61.9 percent in the 2000 season, the first year shooting data was tracked.

Lonzo Ball

Scottie Pippen

Per Game Table

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1987-88	22	CHI	NBA	SF	79	0	20.9	3.3	7.1	.463	0.1	0.3	.174	3.3	6.8	.475	.466	1.3	2.2	.576	1.5	2.3	3.8	2.1	1.2	0.7	1.7	2.7	7.9
1988-89	23	CHI	NBA	SF	73	56	33.1	5.7	11.9	.476	0.3	1.1	.273	5.4	10.8	.496	.488	2.8	4.1	.668	1.9	4.2	6.1	3.5	1.9	0.8	2.7	3.6	14.4
1989-90	24	CHI	NBA	SF	82	82	38.4	6.9	14.0	.489	0.3	1.4	.250	6.5	12.7	.514	.501	2.4	3.6	.675	1.8	4.8	6.7	5.4	2.6	1.2	3.4	3.6	16.5
1990-91	25	CHI	NBA	SF	82	82	36.8	7.3	14.1	.520	0.3	0.8	.309	7.1	13.2	.534	.529	2.9	4.1	.706	2.0	5.3	7.3	6.2	2.4	1.1	2.8	3.3	17.8
Career			NBA		1178	1053	34.9	6.3	13.3	.473	0.8	2.5	.326	5.5	10.8	.507	.504	2.7	3.8	.704	1.8	4.6	6.4	5.2	2.0	0.8	2.8	2.8	16.1
12 seasons		CHI	NBA		856	743	35.4	7.0	14.5	.481	0.8	2.4	.327	6.2	12.2	.512	.508	2.9	4.2	.693	2.0	4.7	6.7	5.3	2.1	0.9	2.8	3.0	17.7
4 seasons		POR	NBA		272	260	32.3	4.3	9.8	.440	0.9	2.8	.319	3.4	7.0	.489	.486	1.9	2.5	.757	1.2	4.1	5.3	5.0	1.5	0.5	2.6	2.5	11.4
1 season		HOU	NBA		50	50	40.2	5.2	12.1	.432	1.4	4.2	.340	3.8	7.8	.482	.492	2.6	3.7	.721	1.3	5.2	6.5	5.9	2.0	0.7	3.2	2.4	14.5

I want to mention Lonzo’s trend in shooting in comparison to Scottie Pippen. Although both guys have different forms, there is a path to improvement over time. Modern NBA players have changed forms and with added repetition, only to improve throughout their career. Lonzo Ball is on that path, with a changed shot form from last season alone. However, it’s worth noting that Scottie had just two seasons where he shot 35 percent or higher behind the arc. It took Scottie 7 years in the league just to shoot 32 percent behind the arc, where Lonzo is right now.

That’s a few hints from shooting, but let’s look at more overall advanced numbers.

The Advanced Numbers

Lonzo Ball

Scottie Pippen

Advanced Table

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	MP	PER	TS%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%		OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48		OBPM	DBPM	BPM	VORP
1987-88	22	CHI	NBA	SF	79	1650	12.9	.489	.041	.305	8.1	12.6	10.4	14.5	2.8	1.9	17.0	20.0		-0.4	2.6	2.3	.066		-1.8	2.0	0.2	0.9
1988-89	23	CHI	NBA	SF	73	2413	14.9	.524	.089	.347	6.8	14.3	10.7	15.1	2.9	1.5	16.6	21.3		0.7	3.3	4.0	.080		-0.4	1.9	1.4	2.1
1989-90	24	CHI	NBA	SF	82	3148	16.3	.528	.097	.257	5.6	14.9	10.3	19.8	3.3	2.0	17.8	21.2		1.4	4.3	5.7	.087		0.2	2.3	2.6	3.6
1990-91	25	CHI	NBA	SF	82	3014	20.6	.561	.059	.295	6.5	16.6	11.6	23.5	3.2	1.9	15.1	21.8		5.9	5.4	11.2	.179		3.1	3.2	6.3	6.4
1991-92	26	CHI	NBA	SF	82	3164	21.5	.555	.059	.319	6.9	15.8	11.5	25.8	2.5	1.8	14.0	24.6		7.1	5.5	12.7	.192		3.9	2.6	6.5	6.8
Career			NBA		1178	41069	18.6	.536	.191	.283	5.9	15.3	10.6	23.1	2.9	1.6	15.6	22.5		57.8	67.3	125.1	.146		2.3	2.4	4.7	69.6
12 seasons		CHI	NBA		856	30269	19.6	.539	.163	.287	6.5	15.4	11.0	22.7	3.0	1.7	14.6	23.7		47.1	52.7	99.7	.158		2.7	2.6	5.3	55.8
4 seasons		POR	NBA		272	8789	15.6	.524	.286	.256	4.4	14.9	9.8	24.5	2.5	1.2	19.1	19.1		8.2	12.3	20.5	.112		1.1	1.8	2.9	10.9
1 season		HOU	NBA		50	2011	16.8	.530	.351	.303	3.9	14.2	9.4	24.4	2.6	1.3	18.8	19.7		2.5	2.3	4.9	.116		1.8	1.7	3.5	2.8

The advanced numbers comparison:

1. There’s a large disparity in free throw rate; Lonzo at 9.9 percent vs. Scottie’s 30.5 percent.
2. There’s a large disparity in 3-point rate; Lonzo at 49.5 percent vs. Scottie’s 30.5 percent
3. Both players have different ways of achieving similar effective field goal percents
4. Total rebounding percentages are nearly dead even at 10.3 percent to 10.4 percent
5. Lonzo has a 27 percent assist rate compared to Scottie’s 14.5 percent. Scottie never broke the 27 percent assist rate until the 2001-02 season with the Portland Trailblazers. A part of this could possibly be attributed to Scottie playing within the equal opportunity offense, also known as the triangle offense.
6. Steal rate: Lonzo has a 2.2 percent steal rate to Scottie’s 2.8 percent
7. Turnover rate: Lonzo has an 19.8 percent turnover rate to Scottie’s 17 percent
8. Usage rate: Lonzo has a 17.4 percent USG rate to Scottie’s 20 percent
9. Lonzo plays just over 27 minutes per game to Scottie at just 20 minutes per game.

It’s fair to conclude that early on, both guys were defense first players, unselfish, and had a ways to go in terms of scoring improvement. During Scottie’s era, improvement would show with 3-point range and accuracy, but in the modern NBA with the emphasis on the 3-point shot to achieve a higher effective field goal percentage, Lonzo has to work backwards and improve his free throw rate and accuracy.

But Mike, you included several years of Scottie’s career. Why?

Simple. In 1991, Scottie Pippen was the #2 option on the Chicago Bulls. It took him four years of development to get to that point. They won the championship that year. The following year, the advanced numbers started to normalize outside of 3-point rate.

The rebounding percentage was the same.

The assist rate, was nearly the same as Lonzo now.

The steals rate, was nearly the same as Lonzo now.

The biggest jump, was in true shooting percentage. Scottie jumped 8 percent. We need Lonzo to show something similar to that, whether it’s 3-point accuracy or free throw rate and accuracy, preferably both. Some of the improvement may come from increased usage rate. Lonzo’s assist rate to usage rate is incredibly rare. He rarely, if ever, gets his number called on offensively. Sometimes a few shot attempts can help build a player’s rhythm and get their confidence going.

We all know Lonzo needs that kind of confidence.

What was Scottie’s most dangerous weapon?

Unfortunately, shot tracking doesn’t go back that far. I think it’s fair to agree that he was a slashing threat, but his scoring prowess was based off the pull up jumpshot, both mid-range and behind the arc.

This is also the shot-type that would unlock Lonzo’s game. He showed flashes of this as a sophomore in Chino Hills.

Right now, Lonzo Ball is shooting:

27.3 percent on 33 of 90 total pull-ups behind the arc.

25 percent on 24 of 92 total 2-point pull-ups from 2-point range.

While the shooting percentages aren’t great, he clearly shows a lot of confidence in this particular shot, especially when 36.7 percent of his total 3-point attempts and 26 percent of his 2-point shots are pull up jumpers, an abnormally high frequency. It’s only a matter of time before his accuracy improves and this skill unlocks the rest of his offensive scoring repertoire, or he switches to find another method of attacking defenses.

What can we conclude?

As mentioned before, it’s difficult to make player comparisons. Some people want to make comparisons by skill set. Others want to make comparisons by play style. Others still, want to make comparisons based on size and athletic attributes. This was a comparison based on some advanced data.

What can we conclude from that data? We can say that both players have a similar archetype. Both were more effective defensively at first, and had a longer way to go on the offensive end. Each player was unselfish, regardless of system.

Game tape helps reflect those similarities, along with the skill sets that come most natural to them. As mentioned earlier, both players are straight-line slashers, advanced playmakers, and spot up shooters. In that sense, they had similar styles. Scottie developed his pull-up jump-shooting over time. Lonzo currently takes a frequent amount of that kind of shot type. He’s clearly confident in taking this shot-type. It’s possible that the accuracy improves dramatically with off-season work.

Is it fair to expect Lonzo to score 20 points per game like Scottie Pippen did? No. Scottie worked his way onto becoming a 2nd option for the Chicago Bulls and back then it was enough, especially playing next to Michael Jordan. Scottie Pippen is an outlier in terms of skill progression. The current NBA is so full of offensive talent, that Lonzo may not be asked to be a #2 guy. But, there’s a path for him to become a better scorer. There’s at least one NBA player of a relatively similar archetype that showed the way. If he’s a #3 or #4 guy and scores just 12-15 points per game on relative efficiency, then whew…..

There’s awful lot to be excited about.

*Special thanks to @alexmregla for the shooting numbers, @bball_ref, graphic by @aidanlising*