Three New Year’s Resolutions: Lonzo Ball

It’s generally expected that a #2 pick in an NBA draft should be considered a franchise player. After all, that player is the perceived 2nd best player of that draft crop. Sometimes, that isn’t always the case. Sometimes, it takes time for a player to develop into one.

Lonzo Ball was chosen as a #2 pick, but had a precocious basketball upbringing. What kind of top prospect plays on a high school team that cherry-picks? How can he play point guard, when he didn’t really play traditional pick-and-roll plays with incredible efficiency? Why are his shooting numbers at the NCAA level so high, but haven’t translated to the NBA level? How in the world did he become an upper tier defender on a high school team that looked like they never defended anyone?

There is a route to Lonzo becoming a franchise player. It requires a certain amount of patience. Some guys just transform themselves into one. I mean, was Stephen Curry that guy when he was drafted? Was Draymond Green that guy? Where did Chauncey Billups come from and how did he beat Shaq and Kobe? Even Ben Wallace took years to develop, and had some of the most incredible defensive years of any big man in the history of the league.

Lonzo is a player of utmost extremes. Even with the instinctual passing skill, he’s a sub-average ball-handler at the point guard position. He’s an upper tier defender, yet despite his size and athleticism, struggles to finish around the rim. His 3-point shooting is absolutely streaky, yet at the free throw line, he shoots a Shaq-like percentage.

Due to those extremes, the Lakers need to take a different approach to his development, far different than other point guards.

Here are some resolutions that I’d like to see out of Lonzo Ball for the rest of the season.

Energy Balance

Finding the balance of energy on both ends of the floor is a challenge. With LeBron James out, it’s been tougher to see the high energy on the defensive end, where not only does Lonzo Ball affect shot attempts, but force turnovers as well. More energy has been used running the offense and creating open shots for his teammates. There is a balance to be found on both ends, where Lonzo maximizes his playmaking value on slightly lower usage when LeBron James comes back, while providing impactful play on the defensive end. The Lakers feed off transition play, and Lonzo Ball is the spark that ignites it.

So far this season, when Lonzo Ball plays between 30-39 minutes, a few things happen. It lets us know he’s engaged in the game and playing well. It’s also when he puts up his best overall effect on the game.

+5.8 Net Effect on 45.4% from the field, 42.9% behind the arc, on his lowest usage rate at 16.7% is pretty incredible.

Compare those minutes to last year:

+0.5 Net Effect on 37.7% from the field, 33.5% behind the arc, on a higher usage rate, 18%. That’s tremendous improvement from his rookie season to this season.

In the two games against Minnesota and Dallas, we saw a player of both extremes. One extreme was a player that was practically non-existent through 22 minutes, and the other, was the player we thought he’d always be in 37 minutes of play.

Lonzo once again showed how he is a player of extremes. Maintaining that level of offensive level of play, like he showed against Dallas, throughout the season is the challenge. The Lakers, when healthy, rely on his defensive ability to win games. In the middle of those minutes, points, assists, and rebounds, is a happy medium; an impactful defender and consistently positive contributor.

Come Back UCLA Zo

While we want Lonzo to become more of a traditional point guard, a key to a player’s success is playing to their strengths. This helps keep their confidence level up.

Lonzo’s top three point-per-possession play types in the halfcourt include Cut (1.31 PPP), Handoff (1.06 PPP), and Spot-Up (0.88 PPP). This shouldn’t be a surprise, as it correlates well to his shooting guard archetype. Just look at his play type similarity scores and player comparisons. None of those players would really be considered traditional point guards.

Of the three best yielding play types, only spot ups are used within his top 3 most used plays at 20.6%. Oddly enough, his most used and yet, one of the least efficient play types is pick-and-roll ball-handler. That play type is used 25.5% of the time, but yielding an atrocious 0.65 PPP. How he has played 125 of these possessions speaks to a lack of role definition within the starting lineup.

When he receives the ball at the top of the key, he shouldn’t always immediately ask for a screen to create off of a pick-and-roll. He should pass to another playmaker, then use the screen to get himself open, off-the-ball. That would allow Lonzo to cut, be involved in a handoff situation, or spot up in the corners.   

Amazingly enough, he’s been more efficient as a shooter overall, despite the disconnect to what makes him a successful scorer.

Imagine how much more effective he would be if hand-off situations were nearly as frequent as pick and roll situations.

Playing Big

One of the most fun parts of Lonzo Ball’s game was his ability to play big on defense last season. Lonzo was one of the best shot-blocking guards in the league. We haven’t seen him recover defensively when he’s beaten off-the-dribble as frequently compared to last season. He flashed some of these abilities against the Oklahoma City Thunder

On Westbrook:

His total rebounding rates have dropped from 11.8% to 8.9% from last season to this season. His block rate has dropped from 2% to 1.1%. Part of this has to do with Brook Lopez boxing guys out effectively. Part of this has to do with Lonzo Ball recovering his health from last year. It would be fair to expect slight increases in both categories as his health and conditioning improves throughout the season.

What It All Means:

These changes aren’t easy to do. It’s a lot of change in a four-month period leading into the playoffs. But within these three major changes is a highly effective, consistent, and efficient Lonzo Ball. It’s so rare to find a high-level defender that is a primary or secondary playmaker. That’s usually the stuff of All-NBA teams.

The better he gets at these specific aspects of his game, the more likely he’ll unravel his potential at the NBA level. It’s never too early to start good game-time habits. When he gets there, whether it’s this year or three years from now, he’ll finally start looking like the franchise player that Laker fans have been looking for.

*Special Thanks to Basketball Reference*

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