A Look at the Knicks’ Recent Transition Defense Woes

I hadn’t considered the importance of raw field goal percentage in a while. In the analytics era, we now have so many more sophisticated ways to measure offensive productivity: effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, points per possession on specific play-types, etc. Then, I read this quote from Warriors coach Steve Kerr, which made me reconsider the way I’d been thinking about the “math” of basketball:

Kerr is not saying anything groundbreaking. The more shots you miss, the more potential for transition opportunities for your opponent. And the Knicks miss a lot of shots.

By some measures, their offense has actually been solid as of late. In the last 10 games (note: all stats were pulled prior to Saturday’s matchup versus Brooklyn), they are scoring 109.2 points per 100 possessions, putting them smack dab in the middle of the league during that span. The offense has been passable for a few reasons: they’re getting to the free throw line frequently, grabbing a hearty share of offensive rebounds, and not turning the ball over. Their true shooting percentage these past 10 games is 54.6 percent, which ranks 21st in the league. That’s not good, but it’s not trash either.

However, in terms of raw field goal percentage, the Knicks are hitting just 43.6 percent of their attempts. That’s both in the last 10 games and overall for the season. That number ranks 28th in the league this year. That, coupled with the Knicks propensity for crashing the offensive glass, has led to a lot of easy buckets on the other end.

Transition Defense

Their atrocious transition D is something I’ve really noticed in recent games. Per InPredictable, New York is allowing 1.21 points per possession following an opponent’s defensive rebound, by far the worst mark in the league over these last 10 games. Check out this egregious example from the Pistons game:

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I feel compelled to screen shot this one:

Reggie Jackson is barreling into what should be a 2-on-4 fast break. Instead, Mudiay hops out of the way like George Costanza jumping over a puddle, Trier guards zero people, Hardaway Jr. might be thinking about Langston Galloway…and Jackson gets a wide open layup.

Here’s another example, this time against the Celtics:

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It hasn’t just been off misses. Any time the Pistons had a chance to push, they did so with ease. Check out these two plays from Stanley Johnson:

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Sure, Johnson makes a couple tough-ish shots at full speed. But he’s taking it one-on-three against Knicks defenders and has no issue getting a clean look. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks have been letting teams score at will in early shot clock situations. Per NBA.com, opponents have been shooting an unthinkable 74.4% eFG in “very early” shot clock field goal attempts (22-18 seconds left), which ranks dead last in the league.

This is a team-wide issue and is not the fault of any individual players. But, it is obvious when players make mistakes. There have been multiple instances lately where Trier struggles to get back and defend. Check out this one after a turnover in that Detroit game:

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He easily could have disrupted that fast break had he hustled back after his mistake. On this next play, Trier misses a three. Then it gets a little trickier to determine who is at fault:

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It’s possible that Dotson took Trier’s man and was late to communicate the switch to Trier. But, Trier’s inability to pick up anyone forced Courtney Lee to have to try to defend two players. No one stopped the ball, so Kelly Oubre had a wide open dunk.

Oubre was the beneficiary of poor transition D multiple times in the game:

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Here’s something I wish I could unsee: the Wizards scoring a “transition” bucket off of a Knicks make!

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Not so coincidentally, the Knicks defense has been a train wreck lately, surrendering 114.5 points per 100 possessions (27th in the league) in their last 10 contests. Coach Fizdale and the Knicks need to nurture good defensive habits in transition. Otherwise, their defensive rating simply will not improve. As Steve Kerr noted, it wouldn’t hurt if they made some more shots, either.

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