Knicks Buzzer Beater: 3 Observations, 2 Questions, 1 Prediction

3 Observations

1. The Knicks have been the worst rebounding team in the league for the last month.

Since December 11, the Knicks have gone 2-12. There are plenty of unsurprising reasons for their general badness. I don’t need to lay them out here. But, one semi-surprising reason is they rank dead-last in rebounding percentage during that span, collecting just 46.7% of total misses. One obvious cause of this is Enes Kanter’s diminished role. On the season as a whole, Kanter’s presence on the floor has made New York an above-average rebounding team. With Kanter, the Knicks snag 50.7% of rebounds (which would rank 13th league-wide). With Kanter on the bench, the Knicks grab just 47% of available rebounds (which would tie them for 29th), per NBA.com’s on/off stats.

Not helping the rebounding situation is Kanter’s replacement, Luke Kornet, who seems to repel caroming basketballs. When Kornet has been on the floor this past month, the Knicks have grabbed a pathetic 43.3% of misses. Much of that falls on Kornet’s shoulders. Of the 52 centers to play at least 15 minutes per game this past month, only Brooke Lopez has grabbed a fewer share of rebounds when on the floor. All the missed rebounds have inevitably led to second opportunities. In the last month, Knicks opponents are scoring nearly 15 second-chance points per game, tied with the Wizards for the worst mark in the league. Here, a flat-footed Kornet gets beasted by JaVale McGee:

Per The BBall Index’s player grades so far this season, Kornet grades out as a D- and F in offensive and defensive rebounding respectively when compared to other bigs. But, as ineffective as he’s been on the glass, he doesn’t deserve the entirety of the blame. Our site’s “Team Strengths” data shows how the Knicks’ guards and wings stack up positionally to the rest of the league in several key areas of the game (see the Prediction section below for the full look). Through the first half of the season, both the Knicks’ guards and wings rank well below average in both defensive and offensive rebounding. Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke, Frank Ntilikina, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kevin Knox are all very poor defensive rebounders for their positions.

Here’s a fun stat Knicks fans will love: per NBA.com’s data, Trey Burke has boxed out two times all season. Of the 273 players to log at least 500 minutes so far this season, Burke ranks 273rd in box outs. Maybe he’s just relying on his size and innate rebounding instincts. OK that’s enough snark. Here’s Denver’s Torrey Craig taking on both Knox and THJ to grab an offensive board off a missed free throw:

Knox is 19…I think. Let me check. Yes, he’s 19. Over time, he’ll develop some lower body strength and will be less easy to push around. Even with that knowledge, it’s still important to monitor his rebounding going forward.

In this next clip, three Knicks have an opportunity to grab a Klay Thompson missed three. Instead, Knox slaps the ball out of Kornet’s hands, resulting in a Steph Curry open three:

Finally, here’s a prime example of a wing (in this case, Mario Hezonja) not boxing out on the perimeter, and it leading to a put back dunk. There’s nothing Kornet can do about this:

Mitchell Robinson will be back soon, but he is one of the worst defensive rebounding bigs in the league. He ranks in just the 4th percentile per Cleaning the Glass. When the Knicks brought in Grit n Grind David Fizdale, many fans hoped he’d be able to pass on some of that blue collar work ethic. Half way through the season this Knicks squad is still looking for any semblance of an identity. If they want to become a more solid rebounding team, it’s going to have to be a team effort: from the bigs, to the wings, on down to the guards.

2. Noah Vonleh with the scoop!

It’s been fun watching Vonleh continue to develop his skills. Lately, he’s been trying this wrong-footed scoop shot à la Steve Nash. First, against the Lakers, which stumped Ivica Zubac:

Then, against the Trail Blazers, which forced a foul on Jusuf Nurkic:

The more I see of Vonleh, the more I hope the Knicks find a way to keep him around longer term.

3. Daymean Dotson is full-on sprinting around screens.

Often, the Knicks half court offense feels like…you know in dreams when you can’t run fast no matter how hard you try? It’s kind of like that except less imaginative. But, one thing I’ve noticed recently is Dotson’s willingness to go full-bore around off-ball screens. It’s clear that he’s been practicing at full-speed. It’s very difficult to go from stand-still to full sprint to rising up for a balanced jump shot:

In this next play, just compare the speeds at which Trier and Dotson cut:

One of the reasons the Knicks grade among the worst in our Off-Ball Movement category (again, see Predictions below) is that their players don’t cut at full-speed, especially if they don’t expect to touch the ball. Cutting like you always expect to receive the ball forces the defense to react to you and creates space for your teammates. The Knicks are one of the worst-passing teams in the league, so the least the perimeter players can do in terms of playmaking is to sprint around screens and distract the defense.

2 Questions

1. Should Kevin Knox take it easy with the floaters?

Look, I’ve been thrilled to see Knox get more comfortable attacking defenses. He’s shown more confidence exploiting switches and his three-ball looks like it’s no fluke. I’m even happy that he has a floater in his bag. It’s an important shot to keep defenses honest. A good floater doesn’t let Rudy Gobert-like rim protectors sit back and wait for you at the rim. But, a reliance on the floater can be a dangerous thing. In the past 8 games, Knox has chucked up 31 shots from floater range (in the paint, non-restricted area). That’s tied for the 11th most shots from that distance. Here’s the problem: he’s only taken 17 attempts from the restricted area. Even though his percentage on floaters has been decent (about 42% in these past 8 games), it’s not a good habit to develop. Knox’s first priority should be getting to the rim. He should bust out the flip shot as a last resort or to mix it up.

It would be nice to see him get a little more aggressive with some of these takes and challenge bigs like Jokic at the rim instead of going the finesse route.

2. Why has Tim Hardaway Jr. been so bad in transition this season?

Last season, much of Tim Hardaway Jr.’s value came in transition. Per Synergy, he used 23% of his possessions in transition and shot a robust 47.7% on such shots. This year, he’s not getting out as much in transition (just 18% of his used possessions) and he’s only shooting 41.6% on those transition attempts. I’m hoping this is at least in part a result of his plantar fasciitis. But, even if it is, he hasn’t been able to take any games off as this Knicks offense relies on him so heavily. As of today, he’s probable for Sunday’s game, despite that left hamstring tweak he suffered against Indiana. Though, it may be in his best interest to sit out a few games and get right.

1 Prediction

I’ll continue to weasel my way out of making predictions. Here, look at The BBall Index’s team grade percentiles by position!

Does anything look funny to you? Would you like further explanation anywhere? Tweet me @Tom_Piccolo any questions and we’ll talk about it.

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