Diving into Kevin Knox: What is his floor?

I’ll admit right off the bat: this is an exercise in futility. For one, trying to project how a 19-year-old will develop throughout his career is a fool’s errand. If I could do that with any reliability, I certainly wouldn’t be blogging about it. Then, taking that rough projection and putting it into a box by way of player comparison? It’s like playing Telestrations with a Rorschach test. Everyone will see different things and interpret them different ways.

That said, it can still be a useful thought exercise. The process of drawing realistic player comparisons gives us some lens through which we can view a guy’s game. It allows fans to reckon with a player’s projected strengths and limitations. And, it helps frame the question: How may this player, in his prime, add value to an NBA team?

In this series, I’ll look at a young Knicks player’s offensive game: his box score stats, on-court impact, usage rate, shot profile, style of play/ aesthetics, etc. Then, I’ll attempt to project how his game will develop as he reaches his prime using three different outcomes. First, I’ll examine the player’s floor. Next, his ceiling. And, finally I’ll predict a most likely outcome. I’ll use players from the past 15 years as comparisons to those predicted outcomes.

Throughout the season, I will go through several of the young Knicks prospects, but I want to start with the brightest young talent we have: Kevin Knox. This article will cover his floor. The next installments will look at his ceiling and most-likely scenario.

Current State

Knox’s Stats:

Knox’s 2018-19 Per-Game Averages (37 GP): 12.5 points/ 4.2 rebounds/ 0.9 assists/ 1.3 TOs in 27.2 minutes; 22 percent Usage Rate

Knox’s Shooting Stats: 37.8 percent on 11.6 FGAs/ 34.7 percent on 4.8 3PAs/ 70.5 percent on 2.8 FTAs

Knox had a rough beginning to the season after an ankle injury sidelined him for seven games and hampered him for several more. Despite the slow start, he still managed to produce some promising moments early on. Those moments turned into quarters, which turned into games, which turned into stretches of games. He kicked off December with a 26-point outing (including 13 consecutive points in the fourth quarter) in an overtime win over Milwaukee. He capped off the month with per-game averages of 17.1 points (including 38.4 percent on 6.1 three-point attempts) and six rebounds. His play in those 14 December games earned him Rookie of the Month honors.

Just last week, he poured in a season-high 31 points to help the Knicks claw their way back to a narrow loss against the Philadelphia 76ers and their top-10 ranked defense. Knicks fans who were looking for sparks of hope from this 19-year-old have seen fireworks at times.

However, Knox has still struggled in several key areas of the game. One of those is simply putting the ball in the basket efficiently. Of the 159 players to average 25 minutes per game this season, Knox ranks 157th in True Shooting Percentage, per NBA.com. There are several reasons for that. Most notably, Knox has struggled converting at the rim (20th percentile among forwards per Cleaning The Glass) and only connects on 70.5 percent of his free throws.

The chart below shows how he has graded out so far per The BBall Index’s talent grading system. On the left, you’ll see how Knox stacks up compared to the rest of the league. The right side shows how Knox compares to the 69 wings who have played at least 900 minutes so far this season:

Perhaps the most worrisome facet of his game is playmaking where he has shown little vision or ability to facilitate for others. Knox has only assisted on 5 percent of his teammates’ made field goals when he’s been on the court. Remember those 159 rotation players I mentioned before? Knox ranks 156th in Assist Percentage. Factor in Usage Rate and Knox has been the lowest assist man in the league this season. It’s a near certainty that Knox will improve his current deficiencies. That’s what happens to teenage rookies; they get better. Your opinion on Knox’s projected future hinges on just how much you think he will improve and in which areas.

Another thing to consider when making player comparisons is shot profile and how those shots are being created. The chart below, with data from Cleaning The Glass, shows from where on the floor Knox is taking his shots, and his accuracy on those attempts:

That Knox takes a third of his shots from mid-range and only hits 30% of them is another reason for his paltry shooting percentages. This chart below, provided by Synergy data, shows what play types Knox has used to create his offense this season. You’ll see his game has a healthy balance of spacing the floor as a spot up guy, while also initiating offense himself through pick-and-rolls and dribble-hand-offs.

So, that’s where we are today. Knox is a relatively high usage, low efficiency offensive player. On the season, he is an average three-point shooter on sizable volume. He can get out in transition fairly well and has some off-the-dribble ability to create for himself. He can get to the rim but has a long way to go when it comes to finishing reliably. Granted, what he is today is only partly indicative of what he’ll be in his prime.

Now comes the hard part.

Floor: Prime Al Harrington

Harrington’s Stats from 2008-09:

Harrington’s Per-Game Averages (73 GP): 20.1 points/ 6.2 rebounds/ 1.4 assists/ 2.2 TOs in 34.9 minutes; 25.7 percent Usage Rate

Harrington’s Shooting Stats: 43.9 percent on 16.6 FGAs/ 36.4 percent on 6.4 3PAs/ 79.3 percent on 4 FTAs

Harrington’s Shot Chart:

The Rationale

At 6’9, 230 lbs, Harrington had the size, fluidity, finesse, and inside-out game to draw this comparison. I’m not saying that Kevin Knox’s floor is a 20ppg scorer (Knicks fans should be so lucky). Rather, prime Al Harrington played the game in comparable way to Knox if you believe three things:

1. Knox will not significantly improve his playmaking ability.
2. He will never be a plus rebounder for his position.
3. He will not substantially improve his field goal percentage at the rim.

Knicks fans will remember Harrington’s two seasons in New York. The guy got buckets but did little else offensively to help the team win. Throughout his prime, his assist percentage rarely crept above 10 percent. His rebounding numbers always left something to be desired. Even at his peak, Harrington hovered around average or just below for his position at the rim. That said, the guy had his benefits too. He was a reliable scoring threat from all over the floor, rarely turned the ball over, and was a game-changing threat from the outside. For perspective, Harrington’s 6.4 three-point attempts per game in 2008-09 were the third-most in the league (!). He had the ability to hit off-the-bounce as well as on catch-and-shoots:

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(Apologies for the grainy footage, but it’s a known fact that basketball in the Aughts was filmed on flip phones). Today, Knox is roughly an average shooter from deep for his position. And, his shot is already versatile. He projects to have the ability to hit both off-the-bounce and catch-and-shoot attempts:

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Harrington didn’t just stand on the perimeter, though. As a combo forward, he had the ability to take bigger guys off the dribble, or overpower smaller defenders. Knox, if he fills out like his broad shoulders suggest, will likely be able to do much the same:

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Knox has shown the ability to be a proficient scorer. But, there is some chance that he never adds touch around the basket. There is also some likelihood that he’ll never possess the “feel” necessary to set up teammates. And, there is some possibility that he doesn’t develop a nose for rebounding missed shots. If those all happen, Knox’s peak could end up looking something like former Knick Al Harrington’s prime.

Honorable Mentions

2003-04 Tim Thomas, 2008-09 Josh Howard, 2008-09 Charlie Villanueva, 10-11 Luol Deng, 2016-17 Wilson Chandler

Graphic by Aidan Lising