At 44-30 and 5th in the Western Conference, the Utah Jazz are picking up steam as they come down the home stretch of the season. With second round exits in back to back years, the Jazz likely have loftier goals in mind for this postseason. With that in mind, I decided to rank each of the potential playoff matchups by least to most desirable.

7. Golden State Warriors

This one is pretty obvious. No one wants to play these guys in the first or second round if they can avoid it. In fact, it feels like teams might be jockeying their positions as the season comes to a close to avoid them. Assuming the Warriors end up in first, 4th and 5th are very undesirable playoff positions. That being said, the Warriors haven’t looked as dominant as they have in years past. They are just 12-8 in their last 20 and 6-4 in their last 10. They have shown they can be beatable, at least in the regular season anyways. The Jazz also seem to matchup better against them than most teams. In the last two years, Utah has been able to beat the defending champs 4 times. Ultimately, I see no pathway for the Jazz to defeat Golden State in a 7 game series.

6. Houston Rockets

The Rockets and Jazz both brought back similar teams from last year. Considering the results with Houston taking down Utah in 5 games in the 2nd round last year, I don’t see this year being drastically different. The Rockets weren’t looking as formidable early on, but since getting Clint Capela and Chris Paul back from injury and adding Kenneth Faried they look like a lethal team again. Had Ricky Rubio stayed healthy, I think the Jazz could have pushed the Rockets to 6 or 7 games last year. However, Ricky Rubio of last year is certainly not the Ricky Rubio of this year. I’m not saying that Utah’s chances are 0, but I think Houston wins a series in 6 games.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Jazz dispatched of the Thunder in 6 games last year, so why do I consider them the 3rd worst matchup? Addition by subtraction. Carmelo Anthony was a liability for the Thunder last year. One that the Jazz took advantage of. This year, however, has been a different story. All 4 matchups this season went to Oklahoma City, despite the Jazz being mostly healthy in each of those meetings. These were pretty contentious, playoff-like atmospheres and I’m sure a repeat series would only get even more severe. I do think that Quin Snyder has the advantage here and could still lead the Jazz to a series victory, but if they can avoid them that would be preferable.

4. Portland Trailblazers

Maybe it’s just because they are in the same division, but I feel like Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum absolutely kill the Jazz when they play. So much so that McCollums passes were going in the basket last time the 2 sides met. There are only 3 other teams that Lillard has a higher scoring average against than the Jazz at 26.4 a game. The unfortunate injury to Jusuf Nurkic gives Utah the advantage, but I would still be scared of that backcourt duo. Currently, this looks like the most likely first round matchup.

3. Denver Nuggets

You’d think the team fighting for first in the West would be deemed a less favorable matchup. But the Jazz just have the Nuggets number this year. These two still have one more matchup remaining in Salt Lake City, and I anticipate the Jazz will finish 3-1 on the season against Denver. I believe a large part of that is Quin Snyder’s offensive scheme. The Jazz put up 40 threes per game against the Nuggets and take full advantage of Denver’s weaknesses. I’m not convinced that Mike Malone could change their defensive tactics enough to overcome that advantage.

2. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have had an interesting season. Just when they looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 games, they go on a 9 game winning streak. Rudy Gobert has owned LaMarcus Aldridge in their matchups this year, and I wouldn’t expect the playoffs to go any different. In their two wins so far this season, the Jazz have defeated the Spurs by 20 and 34 points. And those games looked as bad as they sound. Once Utah’s playoff nightmare, I wouldn’t fear the Spurs if they were to meet in the postseason this year.

1. LA Clippers

Props to Doc Rivers for maintaining the winning despite the Clippers trading their (probably) best player in Tobias Harris. LA looked like they were cashing it in and looking towards the offseason at the trade deadline, but this group had something else in mind. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 and aren’t just looking to get in the playoffs, but improve their seed as well. The Jazz, however, have had no issues with this ragtag squad so far this year and they wouldn’t in the playoffs either. I think a series between these two would only go 5 games.

Per usual, the Western Conference playoff race is just crazy this year. The Jazz can still finish anywhere from 2nd to 8th with just 8 games left. The most likely scenarios right now are 4th or 5th, with a first round matchup against the Blazers, according to Jacob Goldstein here:

Projected seeding distribution and playoff probabilities for the rest of the 2018-19 #NBA season as of 3/25/19 (Based off 10,000 simulations): pic.twitter.com/h3LQrb4HTW

— Jacob Goldstein (@JacobEGoldstein) March 26, 2019

Due to Nurkic’s injury, I really like Utah’s chances of advancing to the 2nd round for the third year in a row. Goldstein’s model gives the Jazz a 75 percent chance to win the series against the Blazers if they get home court and a 72 percent chance to win even without it. A date with the Warriors certainly isn’t ideal, but anything can happen once you get there. For now, let’s just sit back and enjoy the madness of the last few weeks of the regular season.