Trail Blazers fans breathed a sigh of relief this weekend: CJ McCollum escaped major injury after a scary ankle roll against the Spurs on Friday, suffering “only” a left knee strain.

In the long-term it’s certainly good news that McCollum’s career hasn’t been irrevocably altered, but in the short-term the Blazers still need to replace his 21.3 points per game while in the middle of a dog fight for home-court advantage. It’s an open question whether or not likely fill-ins Rodney Hood and Seth Curry are up to the task.

What do they lose with McCollum on the bench?

McCollum is not a diverse player. He impacts games in one way: scoring the ball.

CJ is one of the most effective mid-range scorers in the game, using a tight handle to create space and exploit a hole that many NBA defenses intentionally leave open. Only Kevin Durant shoots more mid-rangers at a higher percentage — 52.9 percent on 6.3 attempts per game to McCollum’s 50 percent on 4.6 per game.

Throw in 40 percent accuracy on 3-pointers from his career, and the fact that he plays 30 of his 35 minutes per game with Damian Lillard drawing double teams, and it’s no surprise that McCollum has become a sure-thing 20+ point per game scorer.

McCollum manages this despite being one of the worst foul-drawing 20-point scorers in NBA history and despite watching his assist percentage drop to a four year low of 13.6 — impressive for a guy who was already one of the biggest ball hogs in the entire league last season.

Despite those weaknesses, the Blazers desperately need McCollum’s shot-creating ability. He serves as an outlet when the Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic pick and roll is bottled up. Lose McCollum’s offense from the starting lineup, and head coach Terry Stotts is suddenly hoping that Al-Farouq Aminu can avoid dribbling the ball off his own foot, or Maurice Harkless is healthy and motivated enough to attempt a post-up any time Lillard can’t dictate the play. Ugh.

The end result is a 2.6 percent drop in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and a whopping 13.1 point drop in offensive rating when McCollum is on the bench — his impact is second on the team in both categories.

Can McCollum’s production be replaced?

Nobody on the Blazers’ bench can replace McCollum’s volume scoring, nor his mid-range effectiveness. But they may not need to.

McCollum has not been a model of efficiency this season; he has a true shooting percentage (TS%) under 50 (i.e. brutally awful) in 27 games this season. The Blazers have gone 12-15 in those contests. For comparison, Lillard and Nurkic have combined for 30 games with a TS% below 50. Krishna Narsu‘s player consistency rating puts CJ’ in only the 32nd percentile as of the all-star break. In other words, McCollum’s shooting has won the Blazers a lot of games this year, but it’s also lost quite a few.

Given McCollum’s volatility, it’s fair to ask if Stotts can pinch-hit the shooting guard role for the next couple weeks, relying on a hot hand approach to replicate “good CJ” on a night-by-night basis and writing off games where nobody emerges as the equivalent of a “bad CJ” night.

This wouldn’t work in the long-term — nobody on the bench is good enough to reliably score 20 points per game and waiting for a “shooting guard of the night” could backfire at times — but it might be sufficient as a stop gap with only two of the Blazers next eight opponents boasting winning records.

Who are the likely candidates to replace McCollum?

Hood and Curry are the most likely candidates to fill-in for McCollum. Blazers fans have already seen Hood explode for 27 points, almost singlehandedly beating the Hornets on March 3.

 

 

Hood can’t score in the mid-range like McCollum can, but he has proven himself capable of handling the ball in the open-court, can seamlessly transition into a post-up if not challenged around the perimeter, and is capable of creating off the bounce.

Curry, on the other hand, has mostly been a disappointment for the Blazers, averaging only 6.6 points while apparently still recovering from an injury that cost him the 2017-18 season. He has, however, shot 41 percent on 3s and may be rounding into shape — his five highest scoring outputs of the year have all come since Jan. 1. It’s possible that Curry could be rounding into shape and additional opportunities will yield results similar to his breakout campaign with the Mavericks two years ago.

Basketball Index’s player grades agree that Hood is the most viable alternative. McCollum has scored a an A- or better on perimeter shooting, off-ball movement, and one-on-one scoring. Hood is a B or better in those three ratings, plus adds a B+ on post-up plays. Curry is the best perimeter shooter on the team but has a B+ in one-on-one scoring and only a D in off-ball movement.

Hood isn't on-par with CJ, but at least he's competent in most of CJ's strength areas.

Big issue might be that Hood shoots 30% in the mid-range for POR so far, to CJ's 50. McCollum's effectiveness in that range opens up interior passing that has really helped the offense.

— Eric Griffith (@EricG_NBA) March 18, 2019

Can the Blazers hang onto homecourt advantage?

The good news for the Blazers is that they have a weak schedule over the next couple weeks, giving Stotts time to search for a plan B at shooting guard without losing all hope of securing homecourt advantage in the playoffs.

Of the players available, Hood is the most likely replacement for McCollum, but Curry’s perimeter shooting may also be an asset. Fortunately neither player needs to score 20 or more every night. McCollum has been a volatile player this season, so if Portland can get even decent production out of the Hood/Curry duo in most games it will be enough to bridge the gap to CJ’s return.