Preseason has typically been a dull affair for the Raptors over the past couple years. Peripheral pieces may have shifted around, but with the same core and coaching staff intact year after year there were rarely many compelling storylines. This year, following a franchise altering offseason in which the Raptors replaced both their franchise centerpiece and their head coach, the Raptors finally have a preseason worth scrutinizing. Here are some of the key points to take away from the Raptors’ preseason.

Nick Nurse does not want Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas playing together

Rookie head coach Nick Nurse fielded a different starting lineup in each of the Raptors’ five preseason games, but never once did he go to a starting unit featuring both of Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas, last years’ starting frontcourt. In fact, Valanciunas and Ibaka only played 4 and a half minutes alongside each other this preseason, all of which came against Melbourne United of Australia’s NBL, and in those minutes the Raptors were -11.

Those four minutes were also the only preseason minutes Ibaka played as a power forward, as he never shared the floor with Greg Monroe, Chris Boucher or Eric Moreland. This would seem to suggest that Ibaka is likely to transition to manning the center position full time this season, a change which comes with a set of tradeoffs. Ibaka has never possessed particularly good instincts guarding the perimeter and nowadays, having lost a bit of athleticism, he struggles to guard the combo forwards who tend to man the four spot for most teams. As he remains an excellent shotblocker moving him to the five could help remedy that, provided he’s not routinely exposed to post-up bigs too physically imposing for him to handle. Ibaka is also an accomplished jump shooter who provides more floor spacing than the typical center. Yet Ibaka is a poor screener compared to other centers, puts next to no pressure on the offensive glass and tends to disrupt the flow of the offense when asked to do more than space the floor.

While he stretches the floor, Ibaka grades out as a poor roller, playmaker and offensive rebounder relative to other bigs

With Ibaka at the five the Raptors were excellent defensively in the preseason, with Ibaka garnering numerous highlight reel worthy blocks. In addition, while Ibaka may have struggled to defend smaller players when asked to guard them for long stretches last year, he is still more mobile than the average big man, and is better able to keep his man in front on switches as a result.

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The problems for the Ibaka at center lineups came at the offensive end, where the Raptor guards often struggled to generate separation, due in large part to the absence of an effective screen-setter. Furthermore, when Raptors sets called for a big to look for a ball handler coming off a screen their offense was frequently disrupted by Ibaka’s poor passing and tendency to simply look for his own shot.

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Valanciunas may not have the superlative shotblocking ability of Ibaka, but he does a good job of contesting at the rim by remaining vertical through contact, while offering better post defence and defensive rebounding than his counterpart.

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As a result, lineups with anchored by Valanciunas ended up being just as good defensively as lineups with Ibaka manning the five in preseason, while also being the Raptors’ most effective look on offense. In addition to his extremely efficient post play, Valanciunas is among the best in the league when it comes to screening and offensive rebounding, and while he’s not an exceptional passer he does enough to keep the offense flowing.

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Nurse insists that the Raptors’ starting lineup will remain fluid throughout the year, mixing and matching based on their opponent. Given Ibaka and Valanciunas’ respective preseason showings, however, I would expect Valanciunas to get the call in the middle on most nights.

Both were effective defensively, but the Raptors were at their best with Valanciunas in the middle in place of Ibaka

The Raptors were moving the ball less

Or rather, the Raptors had two games in which they moved the ball less, and one game which more closely resembled last year’s Raptor offense (I’m going to disregard the games against Melbourne and New Orleans where they rested their key players here). The Raptors offense in their games against Portland and Utah consisted largely of clear out isolations and high pick and rolls for Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry, with their wings being limited to spot-up duty and bigs getting possessions by rolling, popping or securing putbacks.

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A simplified offense isn’t necessarily a bad thing. After all, the Raptors achieved a great deal of success in 2015/16 and 2016/17 running a stripped back offense in which their guards dominated the ball. While this offensive style received a great deal of blame for the Raptors’ playoff woes in those years, those same woes continued into this past season despite a sweeping offensive overhaul. The Raptors might look to help along the integration of their new offensive centerpiece by running an offense with fewer moving parts.

By that same token, the Raptors may have run a simpler offense in their first two preseason games in an effort to ease Leonard in, with the intention of ramping up the number of more complicated sets as he became more comfortable with the team. The Raptors had a much higher assist rate in their game against Brooklyn than in Leonard’s first two, and while much of that was the Raptors simply moving the ball to the open man in transition, they also began to re-incorporate some of the player movement based sets that they spiced up their offense with last year.

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Given that the Raptors have an abundance of role-players with playmaking talent in Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright and Pascal Siakam it seems unlikely that they would revert to the star-focused offense that they ran back before 2017/18. However, their assist percentage may nonetheless drop for the immediate future as Kawhi Leonard goes through an adjustment period with his new team. If it does, expect it to rise steadily as the season progresses and Leonard becomes more comfortable with his teammates and the Raptors’ offensive system.

Pascal Siakam might not be an outside shooter yet, but he’s still ready to grow his role

The refrain of “Pascal Siakam with a jumper could be an All-Star!” has become a frequent one in and around Raptorsland. Siakam’s jumpshot looks better than it did last year, but still wasn’t great in preseason, as he shot just 3/12 from three point range. Nonetheless it’s evident that the third year forward made some significant strides this offseason.

Siakam seems far more aggressive than he was in prior years, as he posted a usage rate of nearly 24%, roughly an 8 point jump from his usage rate in last year’s regular season. Siakam has become more assertive when it comes using his driving abilities outside of transition. Throughout the preseason he’d frequently surprise defenders and catch them flat-footed by catching the ball well above the three point line and immediately attacking.

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In their matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, with all of the Raptors’ usual starters resting, Siakam became the Raptors’ primary initiator. Going head to head with Anthony Davis, Siakam was able to lead the Raptors’ third stringers in an upset blowout of a full-strength Pelicans team.

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While Siakam is an excellent passer for a forward, he had barely better than a 1/1 assist to turnover ratio in the preseason. This is in large part due to his overeagerness as a driver: his heightened aggressiveness has come with a reckless willingness to drive right through defenders, leading to him picking up a disproportionate number of charge fouls throughout the preseason.

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If Siakam can cut down on his turnovers and maybe hit a few more of his jumpers, it seems plausible that he might challenge OG Anunoby for a starting spot. Anunoby is a significantly better floor spacer than Siakam, but Siakam’s ability to play in transition pairs well with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, adept as they are at forcing live ball turnovers.

Kawhi’s jumper is short

This note is a bit of a quick hitter, because there’s not much to say beyond what I wrote in the header: Kawhi’s jumper is consistently missing short.

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This is to be expected following a long absence, Leonard will undoubtedly need some time to get his legs back under him before he can be the dynamic outside threat that he was in San Antonio. Kawhi’s lack of lift on his jumper manifested in both his free throw shooting, where he was an uncharacteristically poor 15/25, and in his 3-point shot, where he went 1/8 and became more reluctant to shoot as the preseason wore on. He looked slightly more comfortable on long-twos, as he stepped cleanly into his shot while navigating a screen or attacking a closeout on more than one occasion.

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The Raptors will use a fluid starting lineup

This was alluded to in the earlier section about Valanciunas and Ibaka, but it appears Nick Nurse is genuinely intent on altering the Raptors’ starting five on a night to night basis depending on who the team is facing.

This makes sense for a team like the Raptors who have enough starting caliber players not to have one clear best lineup. Nurse has been quoted as saying that the Raptors have “six starters” but I would expect seven Raptors to be a part of the Raptors’ starting unit on a semi-regular basis. Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard should be locked in, with Danny Green, Jonas Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam being in the mix for the remaining three spots.

I would expect the Raptors to deploy a starting five of Lowry, Green, Leonard, Anunoby and Valanciunas on most nights, mixing Siakam and Ibaka in based on the size and stretchiness of the opposing frontcourt. Against traditional big men playing at the power forward spot, like LaMarcus Aldridge or Blake Griffin, I would expect Nurse to move Siakam or Ibaka into the starting five in place of Anunoby to add more size on the interior. Given Nurse’s refusal to play Ibaka and Valanciunas together in preseason, I would bet on Siakam getting the call on most of these nights. Ibaka could also be inserted in place of Valanciunas against some stretch fives, as he’s arguably better equipped to guard shooters than Valanciunas and his relatively poor defensive rebounding would be masked with the opposing big lingering on the perimeter.

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