Fastbreaks and Mid-range Jumpers: The Kings Are Hot in October

Starting the season 5-3 isn’t grounds to throw a parade. No one is hanging a “We went over .500 through the first eight games of the season” banner. But when you are a team who has lived in the dregs for nearly a decade and a half, you learn to celebrate the small victories.

The Kings have shown some fight worth noting with victories over a team who should be in the hunt for a home playoff series (OKC), a team scrapping for a playoff spot (Memphis), and a hot mess (Washington) and then capped off an all-Florida sweep, topping the Heat and Magic in successive nights.

Most importantly, this team had been fun. Watching De’Aaron Fox, an early contender for the Most Improved Player award, careen from baseline to baseline at 100 miles per hour and find a wide open Nemanja Bjelica or a cutting Trow Williams (two players who have been impressive during the open rounds of the season) has turned this team into one of the best viewing experiences, night to night.

But the Western Conference is still loaded and the Kings will have to play 52 games against conference foes. Since Sacramento owes it’s 2019 lottery pick to either Boston or Philly, they have no true incentive to tank and so the Kings will continue to be feisty and compete almost every night.

Whether or not they can sustain this level of production remains to be seen.

A large portion of the team’s success has been predicated on two factors: playing with pace and hitting mid-range shots. To keep up the pace (forgive the pun) and stay in the hunt, the Kings will need to continue to maximize both.

Playing with Pace

One of the largest contributing factors to the team’s success is a willingness to run the floor. According to Synergy, the Kings are the third most efficient transition offense in the league, averaging 1.28 points per possession. And that’s not a small sample size either, the Kings average over 23 transition attempts per game and have translated those looks into a league-high 238 points on the run. Running on nearly a quarter of possessions isn’t a flash in the pan, Sacramento has changed their mentality.

I have to admit, before the season started, I was doubtful about how this roster would fit in with coach Dave Joerger’s style. Joerger, in his seventh year as a head coach, has shown a penchant for a slowed down, deliberate style of basketball (with his team’s ranking 30, 26, 27, 24, 30 in pace). I even sat down and planned out an entire article pointing out the dichotomous nature of the roster construction with the coaching philosophy which I can promptly throw out the window.

Perhaps I was misguided in my attempt to nail down Joerger to a style of play. His rosters, especially during his years with the Grit-and-Grind Grizzlies, were tailor made to moil out points in the halfcourt. Even during the early Kings tenure, ball stoppers like Zach Randolph and Demarcus Cousins had prominent roles in the offense. But this roster is different.


Joerger and the young Kings have reinvented themselves on the fly giving speedy sophomore guard De’Aaron Fox the keys to the race car. When he is on the floor, the team averages a 111.9 offensive rating, a number that puts him in league with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Blake Griffin, and LeBron James. By pushing the pace on defensive rebounds and turnovers, Fox has helped to create nearly TWELVE extra possessions per game versus last year’s totals. Plays like these have become the linchpin for an offense that ranks a respectable 14th in the league:

The team isn’t just getting it done after turnovers either. Even after made baskets, guards are pushing the ball head as the defense resets:

Without a dominant one-on-one scorer, Sacramento has to find points in whatever way they can and attacking when the opposition isn’t paying attention has helped buoy the offense. In halfcourt sets the Kings average a paltry 0.92 points per possession (636 points on 692 possessions), a number which is tied for 26th in the league in overall efficiency.

Mighty Midrange

Some years ago, during the analytics revolution that swept the league and left Charles Barkley disgusted, basketball minds decided the midrange shot was among the least effective and efficient tools an offense could employ. But the Kings have built an offense on these kinds of shots, similar to what the Spurs have done the last couple of years. Take a look at the shot charts from the past three games:

(vs. Washington)

(vs. Miami)(vs. Orlando)

Instead of a neat and tidy Moreyball-esque shot chart where most of the looks come from behind the arc or in the paint, the Kings have a shotgun blast of attempts from all over the court.

This trend isn’t be accident either. Players like Buddy Hield and Fox make a living between 12 and 18 feet. Even the play calling reflects a proclivity for midrange looks:

In both instances the shot was a direct result of play design. Sacramento is purposely searching for these shots which the basketball overmind has deemed inefficient.

And therein lies the danger.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Kings are fourth in midrange attempts (38 percent) and efficiency (42.6 percent). Last season, with an admittedly shaky roster and lineups, the team was first in attempts (43.9 percent) and 16th in efficiency (39.2 percent), a recipe which lead to a 27-55 record. If the numbers regress back toward the mean, with fewer shots falling, the success could turn swiftly to failure. And while that sentiment is true for any team in the league, the Kings track record from last season makes it seem like more of a possibility than the Warriors shooting 30 percent from three for the rest of the season.  

But it is all about baby steps with this young roster: First, hit “bad” shots, then look for better ones, move the ball one extra pass to an open shooter, find a cutter in the space you created by moving the ball, etc. Converting on midrange attempts is the first in a long line of things the Kings need to do to replicate what has made teams like Golden State and San Antonio so special.

The team is in the sweet spot right now, kicking the ball ahead, finding trailing shooters, feeding big men who are running the floor, but the entire system is propped up by one of the least analytics-friendly shots in the league. If those midrange jumpers stop falling, the clock may strike midnight on the Cinderella story before we even have a chance to properly celebrate how truly fun this team has been through the first eight games.

So let’s go ahead and celebrate.

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