When OKC Thunder guard Andre Roberson ruptured his patellar tendon on Jan. 27 against the Detroit Pistons, Thunder fans knew it was a big deal. Roberson, often criticized for his lack of shooting, did the little things well offensively. Setting screens, making the right read, finding ways to make himself available in high scoring areas, and drawing attention away from superstars Russell Westbrook and Paul George. 

To give you an example of Roberson’s impact, BBall Index puts him in the 84th percentile among all players in terms of roll gravity. Among guards who have played over 2,000 minutes, he’s in the 98th percentile. Very few, if any, guards are better screening and rolling than Roberson. Some bigs don’t even do the job he does of sucking in the defense off a screen. 

Defensively, well, very few were on his level. BBall Index grades him as an A- perimeter defender. He’s in the top one percent in TDPOE, D-PIPM, DRPM, and D-RAPM. Defense remains a hard skill to quantify, but anyone who watched Roberson knows he is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. 

With Roberson in the lineup alongside Westbrook, George, Carmelo Anthony and Steven Adams; OKC had a net rating of +13.4 in 539 minutes. Among lineups that played more than 500 minutes together last season, only the Sixers five some of J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, and Ben Simmons had a higher net rating.

The Thunder tried a variety of guards in the starting lineup in the weeks following Roberson’s injury. None of them stuck until Corey Brewer and his headband were plucked from the buyout bin. 

Heading into the 2018-19 season, there remains a hole at shooting guard. Brewer was not re-signed by the club in the offseason and Roberson is out until at least December after suffering a setback during his rehab. 

Who should slide in alongside Westbrook and George? The Thunder have options, but none of them are proven.

Alex Abrines

The third-year guard was brought in to provide shooting in the post-Durant era and he’s lived up to his billing. He’s shot 38 percent from deep in his first two seasons in Oklahoma City. He doesn’t do the dirty work Roberson does offensively, but he spaces the floor and is the most reliable shooter on the team. He’s a different player than Roberson on offense, but most importantly, he’s an impactful offensive player.

Defensively, he’s had his struggles, which has led to inconsistent minutes. The effort is there, but like a lot of young players, his inability to defend without fouling got him in trouble more often than not. In the playoffs, he seemed to turn a corner. He was able to stay in front of Donovan Mitchell about as well as anyone can stay in front of Donovan Mitchell and wasn’t a negative on that end of the floor. 

A four-man lineup of Abrines, George, Westbrook, and Adams produced a 116.2 offensive rating and 84 defensive rating in the playoffs. The sample size is small (just 35 total minutes), but those who watched the Thunder in the playoffs saw just how well Abrines gelled with the three core members of the roster. The regular season defensive numbers are gaudy, but the playoffs and offseason improvements provide hope that he can be a solid defender.

On paper, Abrines makes the most sense. But this is Billy Donovan we’re talking about. He likes to keep his rotations similar when a starter gets injured, meaning he’ll start a guy who hasn’t played all season instead of messing with the bench lineup. 

Terrance Ferguson

Ferguson became the starter for a handful of games when Roberson initially went down. Remember what I just wrote? About Donovan thrusting guys into the starting lineup even if they haven’t played a lot? That’s what he did with Ferguson last season.

Needless to say, Ferguson wasn’t ready. 

Nothing paints a pretty picture of Ferguson’s time with the starters. The numbers aren’t good and the eye test was even worse. He moved a lot, but there was no purpose to the movement. He moved to stay out of the way more than to make something happen. Defensively, he looked like a rookie. 

Maybe with a year of experience under his belt he’ll be better. The athletic tools are there and he’s shown glimpses of being a solid rotation player, but he was undoubtedly in over his head last season. 

For Ferguson to be justified as a starter, he’ll need to develop a reliable three-point shot or become more aggressive and confident without the ball.

Dennis Schroder

On paper, Schroder doesn’t make a lot of sense to start at shooting guard. He was brought in to play the sixth man role and dominate opposing bench unit. However, Schroder and Westbrook are going to play side-by-side throughout the season. Why not get them used to each other right away?

The problem with Schroder at shooting guard is obvious. He’s a ball-dominant player who won’t be able to dominate the ball with Westbrook on the court. Among guards who played more than 500 minutes last season Schroder would have been in the 10th percentile in perimeter shooting and 35th percentile in off-ball movement. In 2016-27, when Schroder wasn’t the top option on a poor Hawks team, he was slightly better: 36th percentile a a perimeter shooter (34 percent shooter from three) and 58th percentile moving off the ball.

He’s a fantastic ISO player, but then Donovan would be asking Westbrook to do something without the ball. Westbrook is better moving without the ball — 58th percentile among guards to play over 500 minutes last season — but his shooting leaves a lot to be desired. 

Schroder is expected to come off the bench and be the sixth man to give Westbrook a blow. If the Thunder want to play their best players to start the game, Schroder makes sense.

Hamidou Diallo

It’s only preseason, but Diallo impressed during the exhibition period. He shot 37 percent from three while playing with energy and confidence on both ends of the floor. He’s a rookie, and throwing him against the Warriors in his first career start should be a felony, but he’s an option.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot

Probably not. Which means “maybe” in Billy Donovan’s world.