Evaluating the Justin Holiday Trade

The Memphis Grizzlies have traded for Justin Holiday, now formerly of the Bulls. After the “new phone, which Brooks?” trade debacle, the Grizzlies found a new deal. The team is sending Wayne Selden, MarShon Brooks (*not* Dillon Brooks), and their own second round picks in 2019, and 2020 to Chicago.

The trade has been viewed as a positive for Memphis, the idea being there is plenty of reason for optimism. Another view would be the Grizzlies overpaid. The counter to that is such a move is expected from a win-now team.

Let’s try to sort this whole thing out.

What Does Holiday Bring?

Holiday is being viewed as a 3-and-D addition for the Grizzlies. How much truth is there to that claim?

Offense

For the year, Holiday is shooting 35.9% from three on 7.1 attempts per game. The guys he is replacing, Wayne Selden and MarShon Brooks, were shooting 31.7% on 2.0 attempts per game, and 27.8% on 1.9 attempts per game, respectively. Clearly this is a significant improvement.

While not a dead eye shooter, the volume may be what matters most here. Holiday is posting a 3PAr of 68.5%. For a team that ranks 20th in the 3PAr category, the increased volume is a welcomed addition. Holiday is also shooting above the team average from three, which sits at 34.4% as of this writing. The net gain of going from ~29% on 3.9 attempts per game to ~36% 7.1 attempts per game will be tremendous for the Grizzlies.

Yet Holiday is still an inefficient scorer. He is posting an eFG% of 50.6% this year, which is above his career mark of 48.7%, suggesting regression may be coming. He is also punching above his weight in true shooting percentage as his 53.1% mark to date is greater than his 51.8% career average.

The good news, however, is Holiday specifically helps in an area of weakness for Memphis. The Grizzlies rank 28th in the NBA in corner 3P%, at 31.5%. So far this season Holiday is hitting 39.2% of his corner threes, and has a career average of 40.2% from the corner.

This makes sense given Holiday’s B+ grade this season in perimeter shooting. But what may be more exciting is Holiday’s career best A grade in off-ball movement this year. While Memphis is desperate for shot creation from anyone not named Mike Conley, too many times, especially in the final minutes of a close game, does the offense dissolve into Conley trying to do everything by himself. Conley simply needs more outlets when the team is running set actions.

Defense

Holiday has developed a reputation as a solid wing defender that can guard multiple positions due to his height (6’6″). This seems to ignore that Holiday is slight of frame, weighing only 181 pounds. While not an elite defender, Holiday does appear to be serviceable.

On the year, Holiday’s D-PIPM is 0.1. That would rank 28th among point guards, 28th among shooting guards, and 25th among small forwards. His DRPM stands at 0.02. Such a mark ranks 22nd among point guards, 23rd among shooting guards, and 41st among small forwards.

Holiday’s overall perimeter grade this season is a B, and is a B- among guards and wings that have logged at least 500 minutes this season.

Overall

It seems fair to assert that Holiday is a roster upgrade for Memphis. The team is better than it was before the trade. The more interesting question is was it worth it?

The Assets

We can functionally ignore the losses of Selden and Brooks, as they were really just the necessary salary filler to get the deal done. What the Grizzlies really parted with for Holiday is the two second round picks. At first glance it seems like an overpay.

For a team trying to walk to line of win-now with Conley and Marc Gasol, while building around Jaren Jackson Jr. for the future, those second rounders have tangible value. They could also have been used in a different deal for perhaps a better upgrade.

There doesn’t really seem to be a precedent in the market place for sending two second rounders for an average 3-and-D guy in the last year of his contract. As weird as it sounds considering the poor three-point shooting, a decent comparison is last year’s Elfrid Payton trade.

Both Holiday and Payton have a career B grade in perimeter defense. Last year Payton outpaced Holiday in D-PIPM, -0.11 to -0.4. They are similar again this season with Holiday’s -0.2 D-PIPM slightly outpacing Payton’s -0.4.

They are also both inefficient scorers that were moved in the last year of their contract. For his career, Payton has an eFG% of 47.7% and a true shooting mark of 50.0%. Again, those numbers for Holiday’s career are 48.7% eFG% and a 51.8% true shooting.

Holiday is clearly the superior three-point shooter, but Payton was traded during his age 23 season, where as Holiday is currently in his age 29 season.

Memphis did inherit Holiday’s bird-rights in the deal, giving them a mechanism to help resign him after the season. But it is possible that ahead of his age 30 season Holiday may want to go somewhere that he views as having a decent chance at winning a championship. This means the Grizzlies gambled away two second rounders hoping Holiday stays, when it’s possible his market value was really just one second rounder.

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