Jerami Grant is a 10-year vet heading into his age 30 season. At 6’7 he’s always been an intriguing wing who at his best, is a positive on both ends of the floor. This is a data-driven scouting report/trade value analysis meant to quickly get you up to speed on where this player excels and where they struggle.

Overall 

Grant was a role player turned primary option after the 2020 season. He’s been a solid offensive player for years but his defensive metrics declined sharply after 2019. His D-LEBRON finishes in recent years are likely somewhat deflated because of his poor supporting cast. He’s played for the Pistons and Blazers over the last few years and they have been among the worst teams in the league. At a glance, it looks like he provides some scoring punch with the capability of being a plus defender. 

O-LEBRON= Offensive impact per 100 possessions

D-LEBRON= Defensive impact per 100 possessions

True Usage= An estimate of the player’s offensive responsibility 

 

Offense

Grant’s box score production is interesting. He averaged over 20 points a game over the last four years and he’s shot over 40% from three (over 5 attempts a game) in each of the last two years in Portland. Over his career, his shooting efficiency has been league average thanks in part to a good free throw rate and his previously mentioned 3-point shot. However, Grant’s midrange game hurts his efficiency. He takes a lot of pull-ups and he’s not very good at them. Ideally, his offensive role would be smaller on a better team and most of his mid-range attempts would be purged from his shot diet.

(His role adjusted shot diet)

Offensive data

Here are Grant’s offensive skills broken down by category and backed up by numbers. Below are a few metrics that will be sighted throughout the article.

Metric explanations:

-”Shooting Talent” looks at a players shot making, creation, and quality

-”Shot Making” looks at how well you shot relative to your shot quality + shooting volume

-”Shot Creation” looks at how often you self-generate shots

-”Stable stats” are padded with a calculated amount of league average attempts to enable high predictiveness and combat small sample size

 

Overall shooting:

     -37th in Overall Shooting Talent (93% percentile) -see “take away” for context 

     -Self Created Shot Making (89%)

     -Off-Ball Shot Making (95%)

Take away:

He has the ability to score on volume and make tough shots but he’s not good enough to be the number 1 or 2 scoring option. If you sort by other players in our Shot Creator Role (primary option role) he was 51% in Overall Shooting Talent last season (a career-high)

 

Shooting at the rim: 

     -Rim Shot Creation (93% percentile)

     -Rim Shot Making (92%)

     -Stable Rim FG% – 59% (3%)

Take away

He finishes tough shots well, but struggles to create quality looks, hurting his efficiency.

 

Midrange Shooting:

     -Midrange Shot Creation: (88% percentile)

          -Stable Long Mid Range FG% – 43% (90%) – Outlier season relative to the rest of his career

          -Stable Short Mid Range FG% – 39% (6%)

Take away:

He takes a lot of midrange shots and he’s not good at them. This past season was an extreme outlier on long mid-rangers. Even with his hot shooting his overall midrange percentage wasn’t great. He’s been bad here throughout his career.

 

3PT Shooting:

     -Off-Ball Gravity (94% percentile)

          -3PT Shooting Talent (85th%)

          -C&S Shot Making (97%)

Take away:

He takes catch and shoot threes at a high rate and is a great spacer. He has a long track record of being a quality shooter. He does not take pull-up threes. 

 

Shooting Efficiency By Shot Type:

You can see in the graphic below that Grant has done the bulk of his damage as a spot-up shooter. He’s also performed solidly on other off-ball shot types. This suggests that he would be better suited in an off-ball role on offense.

Data viz via @GabeLeftBrain on Twitter)

 

Free Throw

     -Stable FTA/75 – 6.2 (96% percentile)

     -Stable Free Throw % – 81% (78%)

     -Drive Foul Drawn Rate% – 9.4% (76%)

Take away:

He is great at getting to the free throw line and He shoots a good percentage. This helps his overall efficiency

 

Passing

     -Playmaking Talent (18% percentile)

          -Passing Creation Volume (35%) – (Stable potential assists)

          -Passing Creation Quality (23%)

     -Assists/75 – 3.1 (50%)

Take away:

He is not a good playmaker. He doesn’t create many shots for teammates and when he does they are low-quality looks.

 

Offensive Rebounding

This is not a relevant part of his game

 

 

Defense

For the first half of his career, he was a solid defender in our Helper role. This means he spent most of his time off-ball rotating and providing help defense. In recent years his role has changed on both sides, He has been a primary option on offense and he’s been moved to an on-ball defender on defense. His D-LEBRON has fluctuated a lot this decade after a very consistent start to his career. Last season it was horrendous, but playing for a 21-win Blazer team during a rebuild probably played a part in that. On the bright side, he has always been effective contesting shots near the rim and he has a history of being a plus defending in isolation.

 

Perimeter defense

     -Perimeter Isolation Defense (86th percentile)

Take away:

He’s been a good perimeter defender throughout his career regardless of offensive workload

 

Defending at the rim

     -Rim Protection (35th% percentile) -see “take away” for context 

Take away:

He was one of the best rim-protecting forwards for the first half of his career. Over the last 5 years, he’s been closer to average before it fell off a cliff last year

 

Defensive Playmaking

     -Steals/75 – 0.9 (36% percentile)

     -Deflections/75 – 1.89 (43%)

     -Stable Offensive fouls Drawn/75 – 0.2 (72%)

     -Blocks/75 – 0.7 (57%) Outlier season, he has been around the 80th% in recent years

Take away:

His defensive playmaking isn’t great but he will draw some offensive fouls and get some blocks

 

Defensive Rebounding

     -Stable Defensive Rebounds/75 – 3.2/75 (12% percentile)

     -Defensive Rebounding Talent (26%)

Take away:

He is a poor defensive rebounder. Playing him at the 4 in small lineups could lead to team rebounding problems

 

Contract

He’s signed for the next four years with the last being a player option. His cap hit next season is 29.7 million with small salary escalations in the following seasons. His contract value was pretty bad last season. Over his career, he’s been about a 3-win player via LEBRON WAR. Last year was barely better than a replacement-level player. Again, I would like to mention his poor supporting cast last season and how that most likely affected his defensive value. Based on his skills and previous production the possibility of him being worth 80-90% of his contract in a bounce-back year is not out of the question. His contract is a small to medium detraction from his trade value.

Data viz via @GabeLeftBrain on Twitter)

 

 

Conclusion

Grant has a long track that points to clear strengths and some glaring holes in his game. He can score on volume with decent efficiency and offers legit spacing from the 3-point line. He’s not a playmaker and his shot diet needs to be recalibrated, but if he’s open to accepting a role as a 3rd/4th he could be a valuable player. Defensively, he’s good on the perimeter defender who historically has provided good rim protection from the forward position. He’s versatile but doesn’t rebound. Andrew Wiggins is a great player comp for Grant, both are wings that can be positives on the defensive, provide scoring production and spacing on offense, but are limited on-ball creators. His trade value should be a 1st round pick with maybe a second thrown in depending on the salary filler sent back. He could be a difference-maker for a playoff team in need of a wing. A better situation would change the perception around his talent level. He is right on the line of being a B-/C+ player (80 Overall).