Can the Magic Find Suitable PG Depth in Time for a Playoff Chase?

The Orlando Magic have been a low-key surprise in 2018-19 with a 17-19 record and signature victories over the Celtics, Spurs, 76ers, Lakers (twice), Jazz and Raptors.
The biggest storyline has been the All-Star level play of Nikola Vucevic and his league-leading contributions to his team’s VORP (63%), to go with his elite RPM and Player Impact Plus Minus, where he’s ranked 7th in the league in both. Vucevic’s stat line of 21 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists on 53% and 37% from three has dwarfed his overall level of impact. The Magic go only so far as their big man and his +8 raw impact per 100 possessions.

The improved play and three-point shooting of Aaron Gordon (38%), DJ Augustin (44%), and Terrence Ross (39%), has spaced the floor considerably, providing the necessary space for Vucevic to do his best work down low.

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The steadily improving defense has been another facet of Clifford’s impact on the young squad. The 13th rated squad practiced their craft with aplomb recently, holding the Pistons to 42% shooting on Sunday night after holding the Raptors sixth-rated offense to 29% on Friday. That 13th rank is incredibly impressive, considering our BBall Index talent grades for the team, calculated by weighing player grades by minutes played, have Orlando 24th ranked in Perimeter Defense talent, 25th for Interior Defense, and 9th for Defensive Rebounding. The fact that Steve Clifford has squeezed a respectable defensive unit out of that mold is spectacular. That’s right in line with Clifford grading out better than 89% of coaches since the 2013-14 season in optimizing their roster’s defensive talent into defensive performance. Clifford’s squads won’t always be elite defensively, but he’s elite in getting the most out of what he’s given.
Even Stuff is on a roll recently, with this ridiculous one-handed no-look basket from mid-court!
But lost in the recent string of success against two worthy opponents, has been the dreadful play of the point guard position in DJ Augustin’s absence. Augustin has more than held his part. In addition to his 46/44/90 shooting splits, Augustin’s creations and halfcourt probes have made life considerably simpler for teammates, who score 13.5 points more per 100 possessions with Augustin as the offensive fulcrum.
From his vision in transition to his instincts in the halfcourt offense, Augustin has the Magic’s offense as efficiently as it can considering what he has to work with. 
Six players fail to shoot better than 41% for the Magic from the field. Simmons is having a down year (37%), and ‘rookie’ Jonathan Isaac continues to develop defensively but is far from polished on the offensive end. In fact, the Magic are four points better per 100 with Isaac off the floor, offensively, and he has been earning starts recently over the equally challenged Wesley Iwundu and oft-injured Jonathon Simmons. 
But when sharing the floor with the high-flying Gordon and Vucevic, Augustin gets to have a bit of fun.
Augustin and the Magic are nine and six points better per 100 possessions when he shares the floor with Vucevic and Gordon, or Vucevic and Ross. Augustin is more than doing his part when sharing the floor with productive playmakers.
It’s when Augustin is off the floor that the Magic suffer so significantly. We mentioned the dramatic on/off numbers, but the numbers in question have a name.
Jerian Grant
Grant has simply not been worth the significant load the Magic spent to acquire him. Along with the swapping of Biyombo for Mozgov, the Magic offloaded two second-round picks to acquire the stop-gap solution behind Augustin. Remember, the Magic had their sights set on Trae Young before the Hawks scooped him up, and chose not to utilize 2/3 of their mid-level exception towards talents like Seth Curry, Shabazz Napier, and Isaiah Thomas. 
They didn’t even see fit to test the waters on Austin Rivers once bought out by the Suns, and chose not to guarantee the final year of Shelvin Mack’s five million dollar contract (they had plenty of space under the tax). While you may scoff at Rivers chances of joining the Magic, the Magic had significant more coin and guaranteed minutes to offer (once Paul returns). 
Jonathon Simmons recently earned the title of backup point guard, before reaggravating his ankle against the Pistons on Sunday. In his first stint, he shot but 1/11, before contributing seven points in limited minutes against the Pistons. Simmons is no solution at the position, but the players initially responded favorably to the change:
“It was big,” Aaron Gordon said. “[Jonathon Simmons] is a dynamic player. He demands a lot of attention. He is also going to make the right play. He knows how to play the game. He also trusts me to handle the ball, so it’s good.”
And after all, what other options did the Magic have? Grant is a dreadful -13 per 100 possessions, 12 of which come on the offensive end, and offers just four points per game in 19 minutes on 39% and 33%. 
Isaiah Briscoe, the team’s third point guard, is an unplayable -16 points per 100, though it has been a small sample size. 
The Magic needed all 38 minutes from Augustin to achieve the buzzer-beating win over the Pistons, and it cost them, as he injured his ankle, and was then held out of the Magic’s match against Clifford’s old squad, the Charlotte Hornets. 
The Magic have tried running the second unit through Aaron Gordon, and it has worked in spurts. But in those instances, the Magic can absolutely not practice with Grant and Bamba sharing the court at the same time. 
The Magic’s offensive rating plummets -20 when Bamba is on the floor, 15 of which comes on the offensive end. The Magic need to do all they can to avoid giving Grant and Bamba minutes together. Bamba’s shooting will improve (29% from three), but until that time, the two largest sunk costs on the offensive end cannot share minutes. 

Trades for Dennis Smith Jr, Frank Ntilikina, Markelle Fultz, and D’Angelo Russell will continue to persist until the trade deadline, but the Magic are unwilling to deal a first-round pick for teams’ lottery leftovers. The Magic still have the right to play it patiently, as Vucevic and Ross are still set to earn significant paydays this summer. Should they take their talents elsewhere, the Magic should be unwilling to accelerate their spending timetables on second and third-year players.

 

So, what can the Magic do? Kick the tires on Ty Lawson or Jarrett Jack? Unlikely, as Lawson will likely prefer to wait to join a playoff lock pre-March 1st at the deadline where players can participate in playoff contests. Jack may be a bit more desperate, but if that be the case, the Magic would be wiser to try Shane Larkin. 
The 25-year-old was no more than serviceable last postseason with the Celtics but was a bit better the year before in Brooklyn averaging 7.3 points and 4.4 assists in 22 minutes. Larkin is not the answer, nor is he someone anyone should expect to want to get meaningful minutes with playoff aspirations. 
The Magic don’t need that player. They need a player who can simply exist without torpedo-ing the unit’s effectiveness on both ends of the court. In 154 playoff minutes, Larkin did just that, scoring 10.5 points with five assists on just 1.4 turnovers per 36. 
Bottom line, the Magic need to decide their goal for the 2018/19 season and do it now. If they wish to challenge for the eighth seed and earn some experience for their squad, Grant cannot continue to lead the second unit, and Simmons is barely an answer above. In addition, the Magic may want to consider scaling back Bamba’s minutes and focusing more playing time on Jarell Martin. 

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