Can Jaren Jackson Jr. win Rookie of the Year? Yes. The Vegas Rookie of the Year odds are currently short-changing Jackson. Seven rookies have a better chance to win the award according to book keepers. That is far too many. The biggest obstacles to JJJ winning the award are playing time and Luka Doncic. While rookies like Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, and Trae Young may pad stats on losing teams, Jackson will have a greater impact.

Projecting Jackson Among Rookies

Jackson’s projected PIPM data provides a real foundation for his high chances of claiming Rookie of the Year honors. Consider Jackson’s projected ranks among rookies:

	Projected	Rookie Rank
O-PIPM	-1.39	13th
O-PIPM percentile	36.5%	13th
D-PIPM	+1.53	1st
D-PIPM Percentile	94.4%	1st
PIPM	+0.14	2nd
PIPM Percentile	84.9%	2nd
Wins Added	3.2	2nd
Value Added	$9.9m	2nd

Excluding offense – which obviously matters – Jackson ranks in the top two among rookies in each category. We can discuss how his offense will affect his chances in a later section, but the crux of his candidacy for the award will be built on his defensive impact. For context, Jackson’s projected +1.53 D-PIPM is nearly identical to Kristaps Porzingis’ +1.52 D-PIPM for 2018-19. Jackson already appears accustomed to the speed of the NBA game.

As you may have guessed, in any category where Jackson ranks 2nd, the same individual ranked 1st; Luka Doncic. Doncic, the Vegas favorite for the award, is Jackson’s chief competition for Rookie of the Year. Let’s directly compare the two top four picks (ranks are among rookies):

	Jackson Rank	Doncic Rank
O-PIPM	13th	1st
O-PIPM Percentile	13th	1st
D-PIPM	1st	7th
D-PIPM Percentile	1st	7th
PIPM	2nd	1st
PIPM Percentile	2nd	1st
Wins Added	2nd	1st
Value Added	2nd	1st

While we must concede Doncic has the edge on Jackson coming into the season, this paints a picture that Jackson should be viewed as having the second best odds. How can Jaren Jackson Jr. win Rookie of the Year? His best chance is outpace his offensive projections.

That Form Though

If you indulged in *any* pre-draft content produced on planet Earth this year, you heard about Jackson’s shooting form. The common refrain is that it is unorthodox and ugly. While Jackson shot 39.6 percent from three, and 79.7 percent from the line, in college, many question if it will translate to the NBA. While most will condemn his form, let’s examine why we should commend his form.

The one-motion stroke has tangible benefits we’ve already seen:

When people call the form “ugly” it is likely they are referring to the air space in his stroke, that being the significant gap between the ball and his face while the ball travels through his shooting pocket. While it may look awkward, this is a natural byproduct of a one-motion stroke from an individual with a 7’5″ wingspan. All other bigs with Jackson’s length will cock back the ball, which is wasted motion.

No other big with Jackson’s length has the ability to catch and shoot in stride like that. Other bigs have to engage their lower bodies very methodically, even if their stroke is more aesthetically pleasing than Jackson’s. For example, Embiid has taken threes off screens, but has to set his lower body and take a set shot, a much slower action. Jackson can align his shoulders to the rim during his shooting motion, where other bigs have too many components to their strokes to do this as fluidly.

Jackson’s shot pocket can fairly be characterized as low, as it as at his mouth/nose area. But this release point isn’t egregiously low for a one-motion stroke. His pocket and one-motion aspect help him have a lot of looseness to his shot. In contrast, Anthony Davis brings the ball to his face with no air space and has a higher pocket. This makes Davis’ form more rigid, and more confined to a single space, where as Jackson’s is not confined to a typical space.

Jackson’s pull-up shows the low release point doesn’t allow for a better contest. This is a direct result of Jackson having no wasted motion. While other bigs are cocking the ball back, defenders are covering ground on their close-outs.

Jackson is already halfway to releasing the ball by the time Carmelo get’s into Jackson’s space. Melo has to let him complete the stroke. We see this by those guarding Steph, as defenders opt to swipe at the ball as Curry brings it up to his pocket, as opposed to contesting the shot.

Post Potential?

While the allure of Jackson as a prospect is that he may end up a three point shooting Clint Capela – my god – there seems to be untapped potential for an all around offensive arsenal:

What a beautiful shoulder fake from Jaren Jackson Jr. on this bucket pic.twitter.com/IVGqoKlgI5

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) October 13, 2018

That is the newly 19 year old Jaren Jackson shoulder shimmy-ing P.J. Tucker in the post before hitting a baby hook with his off hand. On multiple occasions in the preseason, Jackson scored in the post with his off hand. Here he is bullying his way to a bucket with his left:

If this continues to develop it will help him outpace his projected O-PIPM.

Barriers to Winning

As previously mentioned, the biggest challenger for Jackson is Luka Doncic, while the biggest challenge is playing time. Luka encompasses both issues, so he makes for a good starting point.

Luka-Mania

Doncic did not disappoint during the preseason. His advanced skill and craft were on full display and light up the Twittersphere. He is the most skilled rookie to enter the league in years, having just dominated the second best league in the world last season.

Doncic also has a clear path to a plethora of playing time. He will be an opening night starter with little competition for minutes. Once you factor in his positional versatility, Doncic figures to play a high volume of minutes his rookie season, and have every opportunity he wants to display his talents.

Other lottery picks may even be better positioned for an all-you-can-eat rookie campaign

High Volume Bad Team

Besides Doncic, the other six rookies with better Vegas odds than Jackson of winning Rookie of the Year are; Deandre Ayton, Collin Sexton, Kevin Knox, Marvin Bagley, Trae Young, and Wendell Carter. There is a rather clear through line in that group.

Each rookie has the opportunity to be a high volume player on a lottery bound team. Ayton, Bagley, and Young figure to have the most immediate path to a constant green light on teams projected to win 20-something games. If the Knicks are overly cautious with Porzingis and the Cavs tear it down to tank their way to keeping the first round pick they owe Atlanta, Knox and Sexton would be next.

Jackson’s path to high volume is more obstructed. Jackson is the third big in a three man rotation, and plays for a team whose playoff chances are being overlooked. Jackson’s counting stats, especially points, just figure not to be near the levels of his fellow rookies. This does not mean Jackson will not provide the most impact during his time on the floor however.

Can Jaren Jackson Jr. win Rookie of the Year? Absolutely.

The BBall Index shot expert Dylan Ward – @hoopindetail – helped contribute to this piece.