Observations and questions from the Bucks comeback against the Bulls

The Bucks came from 18 points down at halftime against the Bulls on Friday to win comfortably in the second half. Here are some takeaways, questions, and a prediction from that game.

Three takeaways:

  1. Bucks don’t give up: The Bucks were down by 18 points at halftime, yet ended up cruising to a 19 point win. That massive comeback fell one point short of the biggest margin of victory ever for a team trailing by 18 points at halftime, a sign of just how historic the Bucks’ 2nd half was. While the Bulls are really bad, the Bucks showed fight in coming back so fiercely out of halftime. Plenty of teams would have laid down and accepted the loss, or offered only a token effort to get back into the game, but the Bucks didn’t accept the loss, and blew the doors off the Bulls. This is just one victory against a bottom-lottery team, true. It’s still a look at a team that’s confident it can win and come back regardless of situation.
  2. Thon Maker will have his chance: Due to John Henson’s injury, Thon Maker got rotation minutes for only the second time this season. He ended up playing nearly 18 minutes, which is actually more than Henson usually receives. After a promising rookie season, Maker regressed last year. And with Brook Lopez turning into a sniper from three, and Henson hitting from deep as well, Maker’s shooting ability is less unique on the Bucks’ roster. However, he’s much younger than either of those guys, and has plenty of room to grow into a special three-point shooting and rim-protecting big man. He’s posting the highest rebound, assist, block, and usage rates of his career while lowering his turnover rate, albeit in limited minutes. If these improvements are for real, he might be tough to keep off the court even when Henson returns.
  3. Eric Bledsoe continues to impress: While Bledsoe’s scoring is down this season, his overall play is the best its been in years. Rather than being a ball-dominant scorer, Bledsoe has moved off-ball, and focused on playing defense and setting up teammates. The result has been a much smoother fit offensively with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, both of whom also need the ball frequently. His new style was on full display against the Bulls. He kept the Bucks alive in the 1st half with drives to the basket when their outside shots weren’t falling, and distributed more when their offense caught fire in the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile, he hounded Zach LaVine into a 6-20 shooting night with four turnovers. The Bucks have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season, and a lot of that improvement has been due to Eric Bledsoe’s transformation.

Two questions:

  1. How will the Bucks score when three-point shots aren’t falling? The Bucks fell behind in the 1st half mostly because their defense fell off and the Bulls were hot, but they did struggle to score a bit when their outside shots weren’t falling. The Charles Barkley take of “three-point reliant teams can’t win championships” is ridiculous. However, most teams usually do need another method of scoring when they’re cold from three. That’s theoretically where Giannis comes in for the Bucks, but his own limitations as a scorer/shooter means he’s not really a “go-to” offensive option. The Bucks default seems to be Khris Middleton operating in midrange or from the post, which is fine, but inefficient. As teams grow more adjusted to the Bucks’ bombing ways, it will be interesting to see how they counter-attack with other ways of getting easy buckets.
  2. Can Brook Lopez sustain this three-point shooting? Brook Lopez is currently shooting 42.5% from deep on 7.1 attempts per game, which would be the best shooting season ever for a big man at such high volume. He first moved behind the line two seasons ago, and was a solid shooter, if unexceptional. This season, his volume has jumped considerably, and he’s shooting 8% better as well. About 77% of his shots now come from behind the arc – he’s almost entirely a three-point specialist on offense. Because of this, I do think his volume of attempts is sustainable: he should be able to talk that many each game if that’s his primary role. After shooting 34.5% on lower volume in previous seasons, I’m less certain that his shooting percentage will remain that high, but even if it falls into the high 30s, at his size and volume, he will still be incredibly valuable for the Bucks.

One Prediction:

I think that the Bucks will have a bigger second half comeback than this later in the season. The Bucks are a talented, well-coached team that can make big runs. Between that ability and their new reliance on the three-ball, I can see them going down by 20+ in the first half if they’re cold from deep, but then coming back to win after halftime.

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