Bradley Beal is closing in on his super-max

Bradley Beal’s workload has garnered plenty of attention in recent weeks, and rightfully so. The Washington Wizards star has logged 40 minutes in eight of his last 16 games. He played 44 minutes on Wednesday night against the Chicago Bulls and 36 minutes on Thursday against the Denver Nuggets in losses that were, for all intents and purposes, meaningless.

But the All-Star guard is garnering real All-NBA buzz just as he becomes eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension – “the super-max” – that would pay him up to $192 over four years beginning in 2021-2022. How does one qualify for the super-max? Making an All-NBA team, of course.

These games don’t matter in the standings, but they mean tens of millions of dollars to Beal.

Washington’s campaign burst by the seams early on. The team dug itself into a 2-9 hole to start the season, compounded by Dwight Howard’s unrelenting back ailment and, eventually, John Wall’s snapped Achilles tendon.

Beal has been excellent, though. He’s averaged 26.0 points, 5.6 assists, and 5.2 rebounds on 58.4 percent true shooting. He has per-game career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, free throws, and the list goes on.

His competitors for the six All-NBA guard slots have been excellent, too. James Harden, Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, and Kyrie Irving are virtual locks, and the ever-present Russell Westbrook would be a shocking omission. Beal is likely fighting with Kemba Walker for a third-team berth, with hungry challengers like Ben Simmons and Klay Thompson lingering behind.

The Washington man’s trump card may well be his Sisyphean burden. He leads the league in games played, minutes played, and miles run. Strap a Fitbit on him and he’d probably be the league leader in heart rate, too. That workload has ballooned his counting stats to obvious All-NBA levels, and his own brilliance has allowed him to sustain ace efficiency and impact numbers. He tops Walker, Simmons, and Thompson in PIPM and RPM, with only Simmons beating him out in true-shooting.

But volume is the appeal Beal needs if he’s to beat out those guys or even Westbrook. Convincing voters with a 35-win season is tough, even with the requisite advanced metrics. Yes, the Wizards would be a 20-win disaster without the guy. But the jump from 20 wins to 35 matters less to voters than, say, the raw 55-win clip to which Simmons can attach himself.

So Beal has to play. Playing – just remaining on the court – has been his greatest asset in the All-NBA race.

On the other side of the coin, the Wizards have every incentive to turn those 40-minute grinds into “load management” DNPs. FiveThirtyEight projects the Wizards to finish 11th in the East and gives them a fractional chance (like, literally less than one percent) of making the playoffs. Beal may as well be banging his head against the wall for 40 minutes each night.

They aren’t getting late April basketball, and they’re putting an insane burden on a player with a lengthy history of stress-related ailments. Plus, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe speculated in a recent episode of his Lowe Post podcast, Wizards brass must be begging the basketball gods to spare them another super-max commitment.

Wall signed the same pact in 2017, and while no one could’ve seen his Achilles tear coming, that deal is now an albatross that will haunt Washington for years. He may not even play next season when his extension kicks in, and he’ll be limited substantially upon his return. And was he even worth 35 percent of the salary cap to start?

Beal is the better player now, but that same question is worth asking with him, too. The Florida product is a clear first-option. The Wizards have tallied an elite 113.0 points per 100 possessions this season in his minutes without Wall. His aging curve doesn’t project to have a steep, impending drop-off according to our BBall Index model:

But handing him the super-max would tie up nearly three-quarters of Washington’s cap in two players and put a hard ceiling on the team’s surrounding talent for half a decade.

Too bad. That’s what the team will have to do. Beal’s recent media maneuverings suggest he’ll ask for the super-max if he makes an All-NBA team this summer. He’ll likely bolt in free agency in 2020 if the Wizards don’t put it on the table. And, for a franchise so vehemently opposed to tanking, you know what’s worse than giving Beal everything? Losing him for nothing.

The Wizards have nine games left this season. They mean nothing in the short-term. But for Washington’s long-term cap outlook, and Bradley Beal’s bank account, each game means a whole hell of a lot.

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