Avery Bradley and the $11 Million Question

Memphis Grizzlies

Avery Bradley and the $11 Million Question

March 10, 2019

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Avery Bradley has been two very different players inside and outside of Boston. Don’t take my word for it. Our grading system clearly demonstrates the stark difference in Bradley’s impact over the past nearly four seasons.

Bradley had a rough go of it as a Piston and a Clipper. However, ever since joining the Grizzlies, Bradley has flashed a performance level more in line with his days as a Celtic. Bare in mind this small sample size alert as we move through the rest of the article, as Bradley has played only 11 games for Memphis.

In those 11 games, however, Bradley is hitting 42.3% of his three-point attempts, and posting an eFG% of 54.1% and a true shooting mark of 57.2%. How do those numbers compare to his final two seasons in Boston?

Year (Team)	3P%	eFG%	TS%
15-16 (BOS)	36.1%	52%	53.8%
16-17 (BOS)	39%	53.3%	54.8%
18-19 (MEM)	42.3%	54.1%	57.2%

For further context, league average eFG% this season is 52.3%, while league average true shooting percent is 55.9%. It does warrant repeating that this is an 11 game sample totaling 146 field goal attempts and 22 free throw attempts.

Improvement

Yet it is undeniable how much better Bradley has been as a member of the Grizzlies in comparison to his time spent as a Piston and a Clipper.

Season	Age	Tm	G	MP	TS%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%
2017-18	27	DET	40	1268	0.497	0.34	0.14	1.6	6.7	4.1	10.5	1.8	0.5	13.3	24.4
2017-18	27	LAC	6	165	0.492	0.164	0.036	2	12.5	7.3	9.8	1.5	0.5	12.5	16.7
2017-18	27	TOT	46	1433	0.496	0.325	0.131	1.7	7.3	4.5	10.4	1.8	0.5	13.3	23.5
2018-19	28	LAC	49	1463	0.464	0.41	0.06	2.6	6.7	4.7	8.9	0.9	0.9	12.4	14.2
2018-19	28	MEM	11	352	0.572	0.356	0.151	1.9	10.8	6.3	22.9	1.7	0	12.4	22.8
2018-19	28	TOT	60	1815	0.493	0.396	0.083	2.5	7.5	5	11.6	1	0.7	12.4	15.9

His shooting efficiency has spike has coincided with a usage rate spike. Bradley is posting an assist rate double his career average. He also has a $2 million guarantee on his $12.96 million salary for next season. Memphis needs to decide if it wants to save nearly $11 million by waiving Bradley this summer, or if he is worth keeping around to field a competitive team next season.

Shot Creation

Bradley has taken on a sizable offensive burden since arriving in Memphis. The team is in need of players that can create their own shot so Mike Conley doesn’t have to do everything. Bradley seems happy to embrace the opportunity to re-establish his offensive game.

Since joining the Grizzlies, we have seen a variety of ways in which Bradley can create for himself.

One specific area that jumps off the screen is pull up shooting. Since joining the team, Bradley is shooting 51.9% on 7.2 pull up field goals per game. Of the 7.2 attempts per game, 2 of them are three-point attempts, and he is shooting 54.5% on pull up threes. His overall eFG% on pull ups since getting to Memphis is 59.5%.

There is more to the repertoire than just pull up jump shots. Bradley has been effective getting near or to, the rim, and finishing with floaters and layups. Additionally, he has shown intelligence moving without the ball.

The alley-oop from Jonas Valanciunas leads us directly into the next area where Bradley has excelled since showing up in town.

Assisting

As previously mentioned, Bradley’s assist rate in his tiny 11 game sample size is more than double his career rate. Not only has he emerged as a shot creation option to ease Conley’s burden, but he has emerged as a playmaking option to ease Conley’s burden.

It also appears that he and Valanciunas have developed immediate chemistry since the trade deadline.

Bradley has proven to be a crafty passer with quality vision when attacking down hill against a scrambling defense.

Answering the Question

Should Bradley continue this level of play over the final stretch of the season this seems like an easy call. There won’t be a missed opportunity cost for the Grizzlies should they tie up the $11 million dollars. There isn’t a free agent that is going to come to town that is an improvement on this version of Bradley.

Memphis will look to be as competitive as possible next year as opposed to tanking should they still have an outstanding pick obligation to Boston. Their first round pick is top 8 protected in 2019, so lottery luck withstanding, it appears Boston will not receive that pick until 2020 at the earliest, when it is top 6 protected. The Grizzlies want to get this pick forfeiture over with as soon as possible, and Bradley can be a big help toward sending the pick in 2020 should he continue to play at this level.

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